The 49ers are going without George Kittle, and that has me very interested in Ross Dwelley. Dwelley hasn’t played much, but he’s facing an Arizona defense that’s been remarkably awful against tight ends.
Arizona has played 10 games. If you were to start the main tight end against them in each of those games, you would be sitting right now at 51 catches for 677 yards and 8 TDs. You would be on pace for 82 catches, 1,083 yards and 13 TDs out of the position. That’s not team production (where you’re also getting a few catches from 2nd and 3rd tight ends – that’s just the No. 1 preferred guy going into each Arizona game).
Three tight ends have gone over 100 yards against this defense. Kittle might also have hit that mark had he not suffered a knee injury on the first play of that game.
Only 3 of the 10 tight ends starting against this defense have come in below expectations. Tyler Eifert caught only 2 passes for 14 yards against them. Evan Engram was the biggest disappointment (considering he’s had some big games), catching only 1 pass for 6 yards. The Giants went only 1 of 5 passing for Engram that week (they actually threw a touchdown to their other tight end in that game – Rhett Ellison is normally a blocker but caught a 28-yard touchdown). The Ellison touchdown is not included in the chart below, because nobody ever would have started him in a fantasy league.
The Saints go down as the other miss. They were playing without Jared Cook, leaving Josh Hill as their main tight end. Hill was more heavily used than usual but finished with 3 catches for 39 yards (on 5 targets).
With this kind of track record, I think Dwelley looks like a solid top-10 tight end prospect for Week 11. He seems to have some receiving ability. He caught 50 passes and 10 touchdowns his final season of college (at San Diego). When Kittle was banged up in the earlier Arizona game, Dwelley caught all 4 of the passes thrown his way. And Dwelley saw 7 targets in the Seattle game (albeit catching just 3 of them).
This is all contingent on Dwelley starting, of course, but that’s how it seems to be shaping up. Kittle hasn’t practiced much at all, and Kyle Shanahan back on Wednesday said Kittle wouldn’t be playing – as if he knew that to be the case. The team then came out and clarified that Kittle is considered a “game-time decision”. Looks like the game-time decision will be to start Dwelley, and I’ll be doing the same in multiple fantasy leagues.
| TIGHT ENDS AGAINST ARIZONA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 6 | 131 | 21.8 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 8 | 112 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen, Car. | 6 | 75 | 12.5 | 2 |
| Will Dissly, Sea. | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper, Atl. | 8 | 117 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Evan Engram, NYG | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill, N.O. | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 6 | 79 | 13.2 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard, T.B. | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 1 |
| Ross Dwelley, S.F. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| Gerald Everett, LAR | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| Vance McDonald, Pitt. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| David Njoku, Clev. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| Jacob Hollister, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| Gerald Everett, LAR | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan