For the remainder of the season, it looks like most of the teams that will benefit from having easier schedules tend to have lesser offenses. (Washington and Miami, anyone?) While some of the better teams close with difficult schedules.
Nobody has much interest in Washington and Miami, of course, but those are the offenses that project to face the worst defenses through Week 16 (with opponents allowing almost 3 TDs per week).
All of the offenses in the bottom 10 (with the hardest schedules) on the other hand, are groups with fantasy relevance. The four who are the next five weeks will face defenses allowing (on average) under 2 TDs per week: Bills, Cowboys, Texans and Kansas City.
OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS (Weeks 12-16) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Run | Pass | Total |
Washington | 1.20 | 1.58 | 2.78 |
Miami | 1.04 | 1.68 | 2.72 |
Philadelphia | 1.04 | 1.64 | 2.68 |
Jacksonville | .70 | 1.97 | 2.68 |
Cleveland | .85 | 1.81 | 2.66 |
NY Jets | .88 | 1.76 | 2.64 |
Chicago | 1.08 | 1.55 | 2.63 |
Tampa Bay | .80 | 1.82 | 2.62 |
Pittsburgh | .95 | 1.67 | 2.62 |
Indianapolis | .80 | 1.78 | 2.58 |
NY Giants | .96 | 1.60 | 2.56 |
Seattle | .84 | 1.69 | 2.54 |
Minnesota | 1.03 | 1.49 | 2.52 |
Denver | .88 | 1.60 | 2.48 |
Oakland | .90 | 1.56 | 2.46 |
Tennessee | .70 | 1.76 | 2.46 |
Carolina | .86 | 1.56 | 2.42 |
Atlanta | .94 | 1.48 | 2.42 |
New England | .98 | 1.41 | 2.39 |
LA Chargers | .69 | 1.63 | 2.33 |
Cincinnati | .74 | 1.58 | 2.32 |
Detroit | .69 | 1.61 | 2.30 |
New Orleans | .86 | 1.42 | 2.28 |
Arizona | .80 | 1.48 | 2.28 |
San Francisco | .88 | 1.34 | 2.22 |
Green Bay | .77 | 1.45 | 2.22 |
LA Rams | .85 | 1.37 | 2.22 |
Baltimore | .82 | 1.30 | 2.12 |
Houston | .58 | 1.40 | 1.98 |
Kansas City | .73 | 1.18 | 1.90 |
Dallas | .84 | 1.00 | 1.84 |
Buffalo | .74 | 1.02 | 1.76 |
For passing production, the Jaguars, Colts, Bucs and Browns project to have the easiest upcoming schedules. The Bills, Cowboys, Ravens and KC, on the other hand, should have the hardest pass schedules.
Note on this one, that the chart shows only passing stats, not “quarterbacking” numbers. A huge part of Lamar Jackson’s value comes from his rushing production, and that’s not reflected here. The teams are ordered using 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 passing yards.
Supported by these numbers, I’m wondering if Nick Foles might be a top-10 quarterback over the next five weeks.
PASSING (Weeks 12-16) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
Jacksonville | 272 | 1.97 | 39.0 |
Indianapolis | 275 | 1.78 | 38.2 |
Tampa Bay | 270 | 1.82 | 38.0 |
Cleveland | 267 | 1.81 | 37.6 |
Seattle | 269 | 1.69 | 37.0 |
Washington | 273 | 1.58 | 36.7 |
Tennessee | 261 | 1.76 | 36.7 |
NY Jets | 261 | 1.76 | 36.6 |
Chicago | 269 | 1.55 | 36.2 |
Miami | 261 | 1.68 | 36.2 |
Pittsburgh | 261 | 1.67 | 36.1 |
Minnesota | 271 | 1.49 | 36.0 |
Philadelphia | 260 | 1.64 | 35.9 |
Carolina | 261 | 1.56 | 35.5 |
Detroit | 258 | 1.61 | 35.4 |
Denver | 257 | 1.60 | 35.3 |
NY Giants | 256 | 1.60 | 35.2 |
LA Chargers | 253 | 1.63 | 35.1 |
Oakland | 252 | 1.56 | 34.6 |
Arizona | 255 | 1.48 | 34.4 |
San Francisco | 262 | 1.34 | 34.3 |
New England | 253 | 1.41 | 33.7 |
LA Rams | 253 | 1.37 | 33.5 |
Atlanta | 246 | 1.48 | 33.4 |
Cincinnati | 237 | 1.58 | 33.2 |
New Orleans | 244 | 1.42 | 33.0 |
Houston | 245 | 1.40 | 32.9 |
Green Bay | 242 | 1.45 | 32.9 |
Baltimore | 230 | 1.30 | 30.8 |
Kansas City | 232 | 1.18 | 30.2 |
Dallas | 229 | 1.00 | 28.9 |
Buffalo | 228 | 1.02 | 28.9 |
For rushing stats, Washington and Chicago project to have the easiest upcoming schedules. Too bad neither of those teams has been able to run the ball reliably. With Washington, it might not even have a featured-type ball carrier (now that Derrius Guice is back and sharing time with Adrian Peteson).
The Texans, Lions and Kansas City (strictly off the numbers) seem to have the hardest run schedules through Week 16.
Stats show average rushing yards and touchdowns allowed by upcoming opponents. Points assumes 6 for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards (no receiving production in this chart).
RUSHING (Weeks 12-16) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
Washington | 118 | 1.20 | 19.0 |
Chicago | 124 | 1.08 | 18.9 |
Philadelphia | 122 | 1.04 | 18.5 |
New England | 125 | .98 | 18.3 |
Miami | 116 | 1.04 | 17.9 |
Minnesota | 116 | 1.03 | 17.8 |
Cleveland | 127 | .85 | 17.7 |
NY Jets | 124 | .88 | 17.7 |
Pittsburgh | 119 | .95 | 17.6 |
NY Giants | 118 | .96 | 17.6 |
Denver | 118 | .88 | 17.1 |
Oakland | 114 | .90 | 16.8 |
Atlanta | 108 | .94 | 16.4 |
Tampa Bay | 113 | .80 | 16.1 |
New Orleans | 109 | .86 | 16.1 |
Green Bay | 111 | .77 | 15.8 |
LA Rams | 106 | .85 | 15.7 |
Carolina | 105 | .86 | 15.7 |
Cincinnati | 111 | .74 | 15.6 |
Seattle | 103 | .84 | 15.4 |
Arizona | 106 | .80 | 15.4 |
San Francisco | 101 | .88 | 15.3 |
Baltimore | 102 | .82 | 15.2 |
LA Chargers | 109 | .69 | 15.0 |
Indianapolis | 100 | .80 | 14.8 |
Tennessee | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
Dallas | 95 | .84 | 14.5 |
Buffalo | 101 | .74 | 14.5 |
Jacksonville | 102 | .70 | 14.4 |
Kansas City | 100 | .73 | 14.3 |
Detroit | 101 | .69 | 14.3 |
Houston | 96 | .58 | 13.0 |
Finally, the traditional win-loss numbers. On this one, I included the Week 17 games.
Cleveland, Philadelphia and Miami project to have the easiest closing schedules. The 49ers, Rams, Titans and Seahawks project to play the hardest schedules.
WIN-LOSS RECORDS (Weeks 12-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Cleveland | 18 | 42 | 1 | .303 |
Philadelphia | 21 | 39 | 0 | .350 |
Miami | 23 | 37 | 0 | .383 |
NY Giants | 25 | 35 | 0 | .417 |
Pittsburgh | 25 | 35 | 1 | .418 |
Oakland | 26 | 36 | 0 | .419 |
Tampa Bay | 25 | 34 | 1 | .425 |
Jacksonville | 27 | 34 | 0 | .443 |
Detroit | 27 | 34 | 0 | .443 |
Cincinnati | 27 | 33 | 0 | .450 |
Green Bay | 27 | 33 | 1 | .451 |
New England | 28 | 33 | 0 | .459 |
NY Jets | 28 | 32 | 0 | .467 |
Washington | 29 | 30 | 1 | .492 |
Kansas City | 26 | 25 | 0 | .510 |
Indianapolis | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 |
Houston | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 |
Dallas | 32 | 28 | 0 | .533 |
Atlanta | 32 | 28 | 0 | .533 |
LA Chargers | 28 | 24 | 0 | .538 |
Minnesota | 27 | 23 | 1 | .539 |
Denver | 33 | 28 | 1 | .540 |
New Orleans | 33 | 27 | 0 | .550 |
Chicago | 34 | 27 | 1 | .556 |
Carolina | 34 | 26 | 0 | .567 |
Buffalo | 34 | 26 | 0 | .567 |
Baltimore | 34 | 26 | 0 | .567 |
Arizona | 29 | 21 | 0 | .580 |
Seattle | 36 | 25 | 1 | .589 |
Tennessee | 36 | 24 | 0 | .600 |
LA Rams | 37 | 23 | 2 | .613 |
San Francisco | 41 | 19 | 0 | .683 |
—Ian Allan