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Updated strength of schedule

Can Nick Foles ride an easy schedule to top-10 numbers?

For the remainder of the season, it looks like most of the teams that will benefit from having easier schedules tend to have lesser offenses. (Washington and Miami, anyone?) While some of the better teams close with difficult schedules.

Nobody has much interest in Washington and Miami, of course, but those are the offenses that project to face the worst defenses through Week 16 (with opponents allowing almost 3 TDs per week).

All of the offenses in the bottom 10 (with the hardest schedules) on the other hand, are groups with fantasy relevance. The four who are the next five weeks will face defenses allowing (on average) under 2 TDs per week: Bills, Cowboys, Texans and Kansas City.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS (Weeks 12-16)
TeamRunPassTotal
Washington1.201.582.78
Miami1.041.682.72
Philadelphia1.041.642.68
Jacksonville.701.972.68
Cleveland.851.812.66
NY Jets.881.762.64
Chicago1.081.552.63
Tampa Bay.801.822.62
Pittsburgh.951.672.62
Indianapolis.801.782.58
NY Giants.961.602.56
Seattle.841.692.54
Minnesota1.031.492.52
Denver.881.602.48
Oakland.901.562.46
Tennessee.701.762.46
Carolina.861.562.42
Atlanta.941.482.42
New England.981.412.39
LA Chargers.691.632.33
Cincinnati.741.582.32
Detroit.691.612.30
New Orleans.861.422.28
Arizona.801.482.28
San Francisco.881.342.22
Green Bay.771.452.22
LA Rams.851.372.22
Baltimore.821.302.12
Houston.581.401.98
Kansas City.731.181.90
Dallas.841.001.84
Buffalo.741.021.76

For passing production, the Jaguars, Colts, Bucs and Browns project to have the easiest upcoming schedules. The Bills, Cowboys, Ravens and KC, on the other hand, should have the hardest pass schedules.

Note on this one, that the chart shows only passing stats, not “quarterbacking” numbers. A huge part of Lamar Jackson’s value comes from his rushing production, and that’s not reflected here. The teams are ordered using 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 passing yards.

Supported by these numbers, I’m wondering if Nick Foles might be a top-10 quarterback over the next five weeks.

PASSING (Weeks 12-16)
TeamYardsTDPPts
Jacksonville2721.9739.0
Indianapolis2751.7838.2
Tampa Bay2701.8238.0
Cleveland2671.8137.6
Seattle2691.6937.0
Washington2731.5836.7
Tennessee2611.7636.7
NY Jets2611.7636.6
Chicago2691.5536.2
Miami2611.6836.2
Pittsburgh2611.6736.1
Minnesota2711.4936.0
Philadelphia2601.6435.9
Carolina2611.5635.5
Detroit2581.6135.4
Denver2571.6035.3
NY Giants2561.6035.2
LA Chargers2531.6335.1
Oakland2521.5634.6
Arizona2551.4834.4
San Francisco2621.3434.3
New England2531.4133.7
LA Rams2531.3733.5
Atlanta2461.4833.4
Cincinnati2371.5833.2
New Orleans2441.4233.0
Houston2451.4032.9
Green Bay2421.4532.9
Baltimore2301.3030.8
Kansas City2321.1830.2
Dallas2291.0028.9
Buffalo2281.0228.9

For rushing stats, Washington and Chicago project to have the easiest upcoming schedules. Too bad neither of those teams has been able to run the ball reliably. With Washington, it might not even have a featured-type ball carrier (now that Derrius Guice is back and sharing time with Adrian Peteson).

The Texans, Lions and Kansas City (strictly off the numbers) seem to have the hardest run schedules through Week 16.

Stats show average rushing yards and touchdowns allowed by upcoming opponents. Points assumes 6 for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards (no receiving production in this chart).

RUSHING (Weeks 12-16)
TeamYardsTDPPts
Washington1181.2019.0
Chicago1241.0818.9
Philadelphia1221.0418.5
New England125.9818.3
Miami1161.0417.9
Minnesota1161.0317.8
Cleveland127.8517.7
NY Jets124.8817.7
Pittsburgh119.9517.6
NY Giants118.9617.6
Denver118.8817.1
Oakland114.9016.8
Atlanta108.9416.4
Tampa Bay113.8016.1
New Orleans109.8616.1
Green Bay111.7715.8
LA Rams106.8515.7
Carolina105.8615.7
Cincinnati111.7415.6
Seattle103.8415.4
Arizona106.8015.4
San Francisco101.8815.3
Baltimore102.8215.2
LA Chargers109.6915.0
Indianapolis100.8014.8
Tennessee105.7014.7
Dallas95.8414.5
Buffalo101.7414.5
Jacksonville102.7014.4
Kansas City100.7314.3
Detroit101.6914.3
Houston96.5813.0

Finally, the traditional win-loss numbers. On this one, I included the Week 17 games.

Cleveland, Philadelphia and Miami project to have the easiest closing schedules. The 49ers, Rams, Titans and Seahawks project to play the hardest schedules.

WIN-LOSS RECORDS (Weeks 12-17)
TeamWLTPct
Cleveland18421.303
Philadelphia21390.350
Miami23370.383
NY Giants25350.417
Pittsburgh25351.418
Oakland26360.419
Tampa Bay25341.425
Jacksonville27340.443
Detroit27340.443
Cincinnati27330.450
Green Bay27331.451
New England28330.459
NY Jets28320.467
Washington29301.492
Kansas City26250.510
Indianapolis31290.517
Houston31290.517
Dallas32280.533
Atlanta32280.533
LA Chargers28240.538
Minnesota27231.539
Denver33281.540
New Orleans33270.550
Chicago34271.556
Carolina34260.567
Buffalo34260.567
Baltimore34260.567
Arizona29210.580
Seattle36251.589
Tennessee36240.600
LA Rams37232.613
San Francisco41190.683

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index