At this time of year, all of the teams have played the same number of games. The byes are over, with every team having played 11 games. At this point, then, it becomes more meaningful and easier to compare the various team totals.
At some point during the week, I like to take the numbers for each defense, add them to the offense they’re going to face, and see what that looks like. There are 32 games, and you see which teams boil to the top (or sink to the bottom).
It’s just an initial estimate, for course. You have to factor in injuries and what teams have done recently. Baker Mayfield, for example, was chucking a bunch of interceptions earlier in the year, but for the past month he’s been taking care of the ball. Philip Rivers, meanwhile, has been throwing all kinds of crazy picks as he tries to operate behind a decimated offensive line.
The Browns have an above-average pass rush, but they’re playing the rest of the year without their best sack guy (with Myles Garrett suspended).
But if we take the numbers for each of the 32 matchups, they indicate that the Steelers, Patriots and Jaguars will finish with the best defensive numbers this week. That’s using the basic scoring system of 2 points for takeaways and 1 point for each sack.
If you’re looking for a streaming option, you might get down to Green Bay, Washington or the Jets (all near the bottom of the top 10) before you found a group that’s available in your league.
Atlanta’s defense has been hot recently, with most of its sacks and interceptions coming in its last three games. The Falcons had 6 sacks against Drew Brees back in Week 10. But if we use the season-long totals, they suggest Atlanta will have the least productive defense in Week 13.
DEFENSE TOTALS (Defense + Offense) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Defense | Opponent | Sack | Int | Fum | Points |
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 65 | 27 | 19 | 157 |
New England | Houston | 70 | 28 | 15 | 156 |
Jacksonville | Tampa Bay | 70 | 28 | 13 | 152 |
Philadelphia | Miami | 77 | 24 | 13 | 151 |
Carolina | Washington | 76 | 24 | 13 | 150 |
Green Bay | NY Giants | 63 | 19 | 22 | 145 |
Washington | Carolina | 67 | 22 | 15 | 141 |
NY Jets | Cincinnati | 66 | 17 | 20 | 140 |
San Francisco | Baltimore | 66 | 17 | 16 | 132 |
New Orleans | Atlanta | 62 | 19 | 14 | 128 |
Minnesota | Seattle | 64 | 13 | 18 | 126 |
Indianapolis | Tennessee | 69 | 14 | 11 | 119 |
Cincinnati | NY Jets | 58 | 18 | 12 | 118 |
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 52 | 22 | 11 | 118 |
Baltimore | San Francisco | 47 | 21 | 14 | 117 |
Chicago | Detroit | 55 | 16 | 15 | 117 |
Seattle | Minnesota | 45 | 13 | 23 | 117 |
Tampa Bay | Jacksonville | 55 | 12 | 19 | 117 |
LA Rams | Arizona | 68 | 12 | 11 | 114 |
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 51 | 17 | 14 | 113 |
Arizona | LA Rams | 47 | 19 | 13 | 111 |
Detroit | Chicago | 55 | 12 | 15 | 109 |
Denver | LA Chargers | 48 | 20 | 10 | 108 |
LA Chargers | Denver | 61 | 15 | 8 | 107 |
Kansas City | Oakland | 48 | 16 | 12 | 104 |
Dallas | Buffalo | 52 | 13 | 12 | 102 |
Buffalo | Dallas | 45 | 17 | 10 | 99 |
Miami | Philadelphia | 42 | 14 | 14 | 98 |
NY Giants | Green Bay | 53 | 12 | 10 | 97 |
Oakland | Kansas City | 45 | 10 | 14 | 93 |
Houston | New England | 41 | 11 | 13 | 89 |
Atlanta | New Orleans | 39 | 14 | 3 | 73 |
—Ian Allan