Christian McCaffrey is having a great year – an MVP-type season – but he’s been surprisingly bad in short-yardage and goal-line situations. The Panthers have been the worst team in the league (at least statistically in those situations).
Two different games for Carolina, recall, ended with McCaffrey getting stopped on game-deciding running plays at the goal line – in the Thursday night game against Tampa Bay in Week 2, and then in a loss at Lambeau a few weeks back.
But there’s more. Twelve different times this year, the Panthers have given McCaffrey the ball when they’ve needed 1 yard to either score or to keep a drive alive (third-and-one or fourth-and-one). McCaffrey has been successful on only 5 of those 12 plays.
As team, the Panthers have been good on only 6 of 18 such plays, the worst rate in the league. Only one other team has converted under half of its plays in those situations (Pittsburgh, at 8 of 18).
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (team) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Good | Att | Pct |
| Dallas | 13 | 15 | 86.7% |
| Houston | 18 | 21 | 85.7% |
| Tennessee | 15 | 18 | 83.3% |
| Philadelphia | 17 | 22 | 77.3% |
| San Francisco | 15 | 20 | 75.0% |
| Minnesota | 18 | 24 | 75.0% |
| Baltimore | 20 | 27 | 74.1% |
| Indianapolis | 17 | 23 | 73.9% |
| Miami | 11 | 15 | 73.3% |
| Kansas City | 18 | 25 | 72.0% |
| NY Jets | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| Arizona | 12 | 17 | 70.6% |
| New England | 19 | 27 | 70.4% |
| Oakland | 16 | 23 | 69.6% |
| Seattle | 20 | 29 | 69.0% |
| LA Chargers | 13 | 19 | 68.4% |
| Atlanta | 13 | 19 | 68.4% |
| Cincinnati | 15 | 22 | 68.2% |
| New Orleans | 14 | 21 | 66.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| Denver | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| Jacksonville | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| LA Rams | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
| Detroit | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| NY Giants | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| Cleveland | 12 | 21 | 57.1% |
| Buffalo | 16 | 28 | 57.1% |
| Green Bay | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
| Washington | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| Chicago | 9 | 18 | 50.0% |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
| Carolina | 6 | 18 | 33.3% |
Looking at individuals, I will set the bar at 6 attempts. That’s an average of one every two weeks. By that measure, only two backs have lower success rates than McCaffrey – Frank Gore (4 of 14) and Saquon Barkley (2 of 6).
Only a handful of other backs (with at least 6 attempts) are under 50 percent: Tevin Coleman, Adrian Peterson, Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones.
Football, of course, is a team game. It’s not entirely the fault of these players that they haven’t been particularly successful, and the players with a higher rates aren’t necessarily great. Only four running backs are sitting at over 85 percent, and two of them are Alec Ingold and Kalen Ballage.
On this kind of chart, it’s also noteworthy to look at who’s simply getting the most attempts – which teams are tending to go to that same guy over and over when they’re at the goal line (or when a drive is on the line). Chris Carson is the current runaway leader, with 24 attempts – 6 more than anyone else.
Only three other backs have 14-plus attempts: Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb and Frank Gore.
Most of the guys on this list are tailbacks. The others I have flagged with black dots. The success rates of those players tend to be higher (quarterback sneaks are tough to stop, and they’re also catching defenses off guard on bootlegs).
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (individual) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Good | Att | Pct |
| • Jacoby Brissett, Ind. (QB) | 7 | 7 | 100.0% |
| • Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. (QB) | 7 | 7 | 100.0% |
| • Deshaun Watson, Hou. (QB) | 6 | 6 | 100.0% |
| • Josh Allen, Buff. (QB) | 12 | 13 | 92.3% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 12 | 13 | 92.3% |
| • Carson Wentz, Phil. (QB) | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
| • Alec Ingold, Oak. (FB) | 7 | 8 | 87.5% |
| Kalen Ballage, Mia. | 6 | 7 | 85.7% |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 10 | 12 | 83.3% |
| • Baker Mayfield, Clev. (QB) | 5 | 6 | 83.3% |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 10 | 13 | 76.9% |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
| • Lamar Jackson, Balt. (QB) | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| • Kirk Cousins, Min. (QB) | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| James White, N.E. | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
| Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| Benny Snell, Pitt. | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Darrel Williams, K.C. | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| Nick Chubb, Clev. | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| Tevin Coleman, S.F. | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| Frank Gore, Buff. | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
—Ian Allan