You've heard the phrase, "Dance with the one that brung ya." Yes, the grammar is abhorrent, but it's advice that many fantasy owners follow. With the biggest game of the year coming up, don't stray from the guys who got you there. Play the best player, regardless of circumstance.
But when a win means everything, is that really the right advice to follow?
There are plenty of stories about championship seasons gone wrong thanks to a disastrous week 16 performance. Tom Brady sets NFL records one season, and barely shows up in week 16. Or a guy has an okay day, while a backup has a Herculean performance on your bench. The worst part is, you saw it coming. You felt like someone else would get you more points, but you stuck with the regular starter. So you're congratulating someone else and pledging to never make that mistake again.
Fast forward a couple seasons.
You're faced with a similar dilemma, only this time you make the switch. And what happens? The tried-and-true starter comes through with a good performance, and the shiny backup is simply fool's gold. Again, you're hearing someone else's trash talk all offseason.
So what's the right move? I think you need to have two elements in place. One, a starter with a bad matchup. And two, a viable backup with an appealing matchup. Sometimes the first is easy to identify, so we look for the right backup to complete the switch, whether they really exist or not. We imagine their matchup is better than it really is, and end up pondering a dilemma that isn't there.
The opposite can also occur. We like a backup's situation so much, we tend to sour on our starter when it isn't as bad as we think. We're trying to shape circumstances to fit what we think we see, and either case can be a recipe for disaster.
Last weekend, I didn't like Patrick Mahomes' matchup, but I couldn't justify anyone else in that spot. I stuck with Mahomes, and he was fine. Same with Aaron Jones. I could have found replacements, but there wasn't a clear-cut option and I didn't want to convince myself that anyone else was better. I forced myself to be objective, I made the right decision. That time, anyway.
Other times you don't like the matchup, but you do like your backup's situation. In my case, did I trust Adam Thielen in his first game back, or go with Christian Kirk, who I suspected would have the better game? I went with my instinct and started Kirk instead of Thielen, Tyler Boyd and Dede Westbrook. He wasn't great, but he was a few points better than those guys, and every point counts. Again, that was the right decision.
So I used reason and instinct to beat back the fantasy demons. I'm awesome, right? Sure. Can you guess what happened? I lost handily. My opponent had better players from top to bottom and my season is over. It turns out that the time I spent pondering those lineup decisions was wasted. I could have done any other unproductive activity, like arguing politics on social media, or watching The Mandalorian for the third time, or listening to sports radio, and it wouldn't have changed anything. Sometimes there is no winning move. The uncertainty is part of the fun, even if it doesn't feel very fun all the time.
But other times it really will make a difference, and you'll have to decide whether to stick with your designated starter, or go with a promising backup. In that case, the only reasonable advice is to do what feels right. Sometimes I've made the correct move, and plenty of times I blew it. For me, there would have to be clear evidence against keeping your regular starter in place. They've proven themselves week after week, and I don't want to go with a streakier player in the hope that I picked the right time to make a change. And if it's a tie, I don't change. I won't take that risk unless I'm pretty confident in the decision.
But other owners have no fear, and will bench a starter if they feel like another guy has better potential that week. They don't need a lot of evidence, and they don't over-analyze it. And they're probably right about as often as I am. I wish there was a fool-proof method of making that decision. I guess it depends on your risk tolerance, your confidence in your backup and how you approach the game.
In other words, you don't have to dance with the one that brung ya. But you shouldn't be too eager to learn a new dance, either. I hope you make the right decision, and it wins you a title. Good luck.
How do you decide whether to bench a starter? Are you usually better off sticking with the main guy, or making a change? Have you ever won (or lost) a title because of it? Share your stories below.