Drew Brees has put up 10 touchdowns in his last two games. Do we try to ride that hot hand? Or is this the week that he will cool off.
Tennessee doesn’t have a great pass defense; that’s a factor. It’s bottom 10 in passing yards allowed, and it’s given up multiple touchdown passes in over half of its games. By that measure, Brees should put up top-3 numbers again this week.
But this one is one the road, and that’s significant. Brees has a long history of not being as good away from the Superdome. Typically it’s about a touchdown per game. That needs to be carefully weighed.
Wind the clock back to 2008. That was Brees’ first really big season – 34 touchdowns and 5,069 yards. If we start at that point and look at the following dozen years, the results are pretty dramatic.
Brees at home in the last dozen years has averaged 322 passing yards, with 2.70 touchdowns and .74 interceptions. For touchdowns and interceptions, that’s an average of 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions per 16-game season. Those are great, great numbers, and the kind of stuff we’ve seen the last two weeks.
But Brees outside of the Superdome has been a different cat. In the last dozen years, he’s averaged 289 passing yards (33 fewer per game), with 1.74 TDs and .99 interceptions. If you prefer 16-game seasons, that’s 28 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
So while Brees is hot right now and facing modest enough competition, I think we’re going to see quite a dropoff on Sunday, both in yards and touchdowns. Unlikely he throws more than 2 TDs, and something in the 270-280 range for yards makes a lot more sense than 320-plus.
And if we look at recent history, we might want to be even cooler on Brees. Remarkably, he’s passed for fewer than 230 yards in all but one of his last 10 games on the road. He’s also thrown more than one touchdown in only three of those games.
I’m not saying everyone should bench Brees. But for those who also have enough viable option at quarterback, I would be very open to potentially putting that other guy in the lineup this week.
| Brees on the road | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Yds | TD | Int | |
| 2018 | NYG | 217 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2018 | Balt. | 212 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2018 | Min. | 120 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2018 | Cin. | 265 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2018 | Dall. | 127 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2018 | T.B. | 201 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2018 | Car. | 203 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2019 | LAR | 38 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2019 | T.B. | 228 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2019 | Atl. | 184 | 1 | 0 | |
Brees’ home starts in the same time period look a whole lot better.
| Brees at home | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Yds | TD | Int | |
| 2018 | Was. | 363 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2018 | LAR | 346 | 4 | 0 | |
| 2018 | Phil. | 363 | 4 | 0 | |
| 2018 | Atl. | 171 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2018 | Pitt. | 326 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2019 | Hou. | 370 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2018 | Ariz. | 373 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2019 | Atl. | 287 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2019 | Car. | 311 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2019 | S.F. | 349 | 5 | 0 | |
| 2019 | Ind. | 307 | 4 | 0 | |
—Ian Allan