Let me dip back into Drew Brees for a moment. I posted the home-away numbers earlier in the week, and I don’t think some readers believed me. But there is some sense in possibly sitting him down this week. (Or not.)
I will present the numbers in another way.
It was in 2008 that Brees first started putting up gigantic numbers. He tossed 34 touchdowns that year, and with his first 5,000-yard season. The numbers below come from the 2008-2019 seasons.
In those 12 seasons, Brees 27 times has played on the road after having a big game in the Superdome. And by “big”, I mean at least 300 passing yards and at least 3 TD passes. He’s in another one of those situations this week – playing at Tennessee after shredding the Colts on Monday night.
In his previous 27 follow-up games, Brees has gone 16-11. He’s thrown at least 3 TDs in only six of those games (about once every 4-5 games). Yardage has been better. He’s gone over 300 yards almost half of the time – 12 of 27.
Averages for the 27 road games: 302 passing yards, with 1.85 TD passes and 1.11 interceptions. If you prefer to think in terms of 16-game seasons, Brees would finish with 29-30 TD passes and 17-18 interceptions.
I’m not saying Brees can’t be started this week. It’s your team and your call. But I wouldn’t be even thinking about starting him ahead of guys like Russell Wilson. I’ve got Brees just outside the top 10 among quarterbacks on my board.
BREES ON THE ROAD AFTER A BIG GAME | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Opp | Result | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
2008 | Was. | L 24-29 | 216 | 1 | 2 | 69.8 |
2008 | Car. | L 7-30 | 231 | 0 | 1 | 61.0 |
2008 | T.B. | L 20-23 | 296 | 2 | 3 | 60.2 |
2009 | Phil. | W 48-22 | 311 | 3 | 1 | 118.6 |
2009 | Mia. | W 46-34 | 298 | 1 | 3 | 58.9 |
2009 | Was. | W 33-30 | 419 | 2 | 1 | 102.3 |
2010 | Dall. | W 30-27 | 352 | 1 | 1 | 86.7 |
2011 | Jac. | W 23-10 | 351 | 1 | 2 | 82.7 |
2011 | St.L. | L 21-31 | 269 | 1 | 2 | 73.0 |
2011 | Ten. | W 22-17 | 337 | 2 | 0 | 110.0 |
2012 | Car. | L 27-35 | 325 | 1 | 2 | 72.2 |
2012 | T.B. | W 35-28 | 377 | 4 | 1 | 130.1 |
2012 | Dall. | W 34-31 | 446 | 3 | 0 | 114.2 |
2013 | Chi. | W 26-18 | 288 | 2 | 0 | 120.0 |
2013 | NYJ | L 20-26 | 382 | 2 | 2 | 79.0 |
2013 | St.L. | L 16-27 | 393 | 1 | 2 | 80.4 |
2014 | Car. | W 28-10 | 297 | 1 | 1 | 94.9 |
2014 | Pitt. | W 35-32 | 257 | 5 | 0 | 140.0 |
2015 | Was. | L 14-47 | 209 | 2 | 2 | 83.8 |
2015 | Atl. | W 20-17 | 323 | 1 | 0 | 105.6 |
2016 | NYG | L 13-16 | 263 | 1 | 0 | 89.5 |
2016 | S.D. | W 35-34 | 207 | 2 | 2 | 74.7 |
2016 | K.C. | L 21-27 | 367 | 3 | 1 | 110.3 |
2016 | Car. | L 20-23 | 285 | 2 | 1 | 99.3 |
2018 | Balt. | W 24-23 | 212 | 2 | 0 | 114.9 |
2018 | Cin. | W 51-14 | 265 | 3 | 0 | 150.4 |
2019 | Atl. | W 26-18 | 184 | 1 | 0 | 88.7 |
Avg | . | 16-11 | 302 | 1.85 | 1.11 | 95.2 |
—Ian Allan