Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

Brees (part 2)

A different look at home vs. away

Let me dip back into Drew Brees for a moment. I posted the home-away numbers earlier in the week, and I don’t think some readers believed me. But there is some sense in possibly sitting him down this week. (Or not.)

I will present the numbers in another way.

It was in 2008 that Brees first started putting up gigantic numbers. He tossed 34 touchdowns that year, and with his first 5,000-yard season. The numbers below come from the 2008-2019 seasons.

In those 12 seasons, Brees 27 times has played on the road after having a big game in the Superdome. And by “big”, I mean at least 300 passing yards and at least 3 TD passes. He’s in another one of those situations this week – playing at Tennessee after shredding the Colts on Monday night.

In his previous 27 follow-up games, Brees has gone 16-11. He’s thrown at least 3 TDs in only six of those games (about once every 4-5 games). Yardage has been better. He’s gone over 300 yards almost half of the time – 12 of 27.

Averages for the 27 road games: 302 passing yards, with 1.85 TD passes and 1.11 interceptions. If you prefer to think in terms of 16-game seasons, Brees would finish with 29-30 TD passes and 17-18 interceptions.

I’m not saying Brees can’t be started this week. It’s your team and your call. But I wouldn’t be even thinking about starting him ahead of guys like Russell Wilson. I’ve got Brees just outside the top 10 among quarterbacks on my board.

BREES ON THE ROAD AFTER A BIG GAME
YearOppResultYdsTDIntRate
2008Was.L 24-292161269.8
2008Car.L 7-302310161.0
2008T.B.L 20-232962360.2
2009Phil.W 48-2231131118.6
2009Mia.W 46-342981358.9
2009Was.W 33-3041921102.3
2010Dall.W 30-273521186.7
2011Jac.W 23-103511282.7
2011St.L.L 21-312691273.0
2011Ten.W 22-1733720110.0
2012Car.L 27-353251272.2
2012T.B.W 35-2837741130.1
2012Dall.W 34-3144630114.2
2013Chi.W 26-1828820120.0
2013NYJL 20-263822279.0
2013St.L.L 16-273931280.4
2014Car.W 28-102971194.9
2014Pitt.W 35-3225750140.0
2015Was.L 14-472092283.8
2015Atl.W 20-1732310105.6
2016NYGL 13-162631089.5
2016S.D.W 35-342072274.7
2016K.C.L 21-2736731110.3
2016Car.L 20-232852199.3
2018Balt.W 24-2321220114.9
2018Cin.W 51-1426530150.4
2019Atl.W 26-181841088.7
Avg .16-113021.851.1195.2

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index