If you’re looking for a surprise defense for Week 17, perhaps start with the NFC South. The season-long numbers suggest that the Bucs and Falcons look like the defenses most likely to outperform their usual production.
This makes a lot of sense, of course, with Jameis Winston involved in that game. He’s been a one-man wrecking crew, with 28 interceptions. But for the Falcons, it’s not only a chance to play against Winston. That defense has also been a little better in the last month and a half at generating sacks and interceptions. Atlanta has only 7 sacks and 2 interceptions in its first eight games; it has been pretty solid in its last seven, with 20 sacks and 8 picks.
In the other half of that game, the Bucs also look good. That’s a defense with some pass rush, and the Falcons have had problems with protection all year long. Atlanta used two first-round picks on offensive linemen and also spent heavily in free agency in that area, but it hasn’t made much of a difference.
As a starting point in these late-season matchups, I like to look at what offenses and defenses have done. You average the numbers, and it provides an estimate of what you might expect. With the defense position, I’m looking at sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries and touchdowns (including kick returns, and I’ve got safeties stuffed in this category as well). You look at the 15 games for each defense, the 15 games for each offense, and then average them into per-game totals.
For scoring system, I’m using 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for each touchdown.
These aren’t my rankings or projections. I’m still working through each game (and Andy’s doing six of the games), adjusting for notable factors. For Week 17, some teams aren’t even fully invested definitely or possibly including the Ravens, Texans and Vikings. And if a team is now using a inexperienced young quarterback (David Blough, Will Grier) that makes the team’s season-long numbers less meaningful.
But the numbers are a starting point.
| WEEK 17 DEFENSES (averaged numbers) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Opp | Sck | Int | Fum | TD | Pts |
| New England | Mia. | 3.37 | 1.43 | .63 | .37 | 9.70 |
| San Francisco | Sea. | 3.13 | .60 | .97 | .37 | 8.47 |
| New Orleans | Car. | 3.50 | 1.00 | .73 | .21 | 8.23 |
| Tampa Bay | Atl. | 2.83 | .90 | .80 | .27 | 7.83 |
| Atlanta | T.B. | 2.43 | 1.27 | .57 | .28 | 7.77 |
| Philadelphia | NYG | 2.60 | .87 | .77 | .28 | 7.53 |
| LA Rams | Ariz. | 3.27 | .70 | .37 | .31 | 7.27 |
| Cleveland | Cin. | 2.80 | .93 | .67 | .20 | 7.20 |
| Kansas City | LAC | 2.43 | 1.07 | .60 | .21 | 7.03 |
| Pittsburgh | Balt. | 2.53 | .87 | .77 | .20 | 7.00 |
| Buffalo | NYJ | 3.07 | .93 | .60 | .14 | 7.00 |
| Seattle | S.F. | 2.00 | .97 | .87 | .21 | 6.93 |
| Baltimore | Pitt. | 2.13 | 1.07 | .63 | .22 | 6.87 |
| Tennessee | Hou. | 2.80 | .87 | .57 | .19 | 6.80 |
| NY Jets | Buff. | 2.43 | .67 | .47 | .32 | 6.63 |
| Minnesota | Chi. | 2.83 | .97 | .63 | .09 | 6.57 |
| Indianapolis | Jac. | 2.57 | .70 | .67 | .21 | 6.56 |
| Green Bay | Det. | 2.73 | 1.00 | .53 | .10 | 6.40 |
| Dallas | Was. | 2.83 | .60 | .53 | .13 | 5.90 |
| Houston | Ten. | 2.90 | .67 | .63 | .07 | 5.90 |
| NY Giants | Phil. | 2.37 | .60 | .70 | .14 | 5.83 |
| Jacksonville | Ind. | 2.43 | .67 | .53 | .13 | 5.63 |
| Arizona | LAR | 2.00 | .80 | .57 | .13 | 5.53 |
| Cincinnati | Clev. | 1.97 | .87 | .40 | .13 | 5.30 |
| Oakland | Den. | 2.30 | .63 | .33 | .17 | 5.23 |
| Denver | Oak. | 2.17 | .60 | .47 | .14 | 5.17 |
| Carolina | N.O. | 2.53 | .67 | .30 | .09 | 5.00 |
| Washington | Dall. | 2.10 | .80 | .47 | .03 | 4.83 |
| Detroit | G.B. | 2.07 | .30 | .67 | .10 | 4.60 |
| Chicago | Min. | 2.00 | .47 | .63 | .07 | 4.60 |
| Miami | N.E. | 1.63 | .67 | .23 | .18 | 4.50 |
| LA Chargers | K.C. | 1.83 | .47 | .43 | .07 | 4.03 |
—Ian Allan