Jameis Winston at first glance should put up big numbers in Week 17. The Bucs are at home, and they’re playing against an Atlanta defense that’s given up plenty of yards and points. But is there more to this matchup than meets the eye?

The Falcons are playing better now than they were early in the year, when their defense was simply a sieve. Atlanta gave up 53 points in a loss at Houston, and followed that up by allowing 34 and 37 points in their next two games.

But if we toss out all of the first half work and look only at the last seven games for each team, the Falcons start to look a lot more viable. They’ve won five of their last seven, with yards and points allowed going way down.

The Falcons have allowed an average of 99 rushing and 258 passing yards in their last seven games, and with just 11 touchdowns allowed in those games. Three of those games were against Carolina and Jacksonville, but four of them were against teams currently ranking in the top 5 in scoring – Saints (twice), Bucs and 49ers.

Tampa Bay at least was the one team in this run that put up big numbers against this defense – 133 rushing and 313 passing in a 35-22 win in Atlanta in Week 12. But the Bucs at that time had Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

I’m not opposed to potentially starting Winston and others, but I don’t consider this to be a shoo-in matchup.

POINTS ALLOWED (last 7 G)
TeamPoints
Baltimore13.7
Kansas City15.1
Pittsburgh15.1
Buffalo16.4
Atlanta18.1
Green Bay18.6
Chicago19.3
New England19.6
Philadelphia19.7
NY Jets20.3
Denver21.4
Minnesota21.4
Cleveland22.1
LA Chargers22.4
Indianapolis22.6
Houston23.1
Dallas23.3
LA Rams23.7
Tampa Bay24.1
New Orleans25.0
Seattle25.1
Tennessee26.0
Detroit26.1
Cincinnati26.7
Oakland26.7
San Francisco26.7
Arizona26.9
Washington27.6
NY Giants28.4
Jacksonville30.6
Miami30.6
Carolina32.0

—Ian Allan