If your favorite team didn’t make the playoff this year, don’t give up hope. If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, it’s that there will be substantial change in the standings each year. About half of the playoff field should be different at this time next year.
That’s the way it’s been consistently playing out. Since the move to the eight-division format in 2002, there’s been an average 5.9 new playoff teams per season. In only two of the last 20 years have two thirds of the playoff field remained in track.
Just as the Rams, Chargers, Cowboys, Colts and Bears. They all made the playoffs last season. If not for a late missed field goal at Soldier Field, they all would have won playoff games. But this year, not so much.
While there are 20 teams that didn’t make the playoffs, almost certainly a quarter of those teams will make the postseason next year. More likely, six of those 20 teams will show up in the playoffs.
For the 2019 playoff field, there are five new teams, and two of them (49ers, Packers) have first-round byes.
| CHANGING PLAYOFF FIELD | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | No | (new teams in playoffs) |
| 2000 | 6 | (Balt, Den, NO, NYG, Oak, Phi) |
| 2001 | 6 | (Chi, GB, NE, NYJ, Pit, SF) |
| 2002 | 5 | (Atl, Cle, Ind, NYG, Ten) |
| 2003 | 8 | (Balt, Car, Dall, Den, KC, NE, StL, Sea) |
| 2004 | 5 | (Atl, Min, NYJ, Pit, SD) |
| 2005 | 7 | (Car, Chi, Cin, Jax, NYG, TB, Was) |
| 2006 | 7 | (Balt, Dall, KC, NO, NYJ, Phi, SD) |
| 2007 | 6 | (GB, Jax, Pit, TB, Ten, Was) |
| 2008 | 7 | (Ari, Atl, Balt, Car, Mia, Min, Phi) |
| 2009 | 6 | (Cin, Dall, GB, NE, NO, NYJ) |
| 2010 | 5 | (Atl, Chi, KC, Pit, Sea) |
| 2011 | 6 | (Cin, Den, Det, Hou, NYG, SF) |
| 2012 | 4 | (Ind, Min, Sea, Was) |
| 2013 | 5 | (Car, KC, NO, Phi, SD) |
| 2014 | 5 | (Ari, Bal, Dall, Det, Pit) |
| 2015 | 4 | (Hou, KC, Min, Was) |
| 2016 | 6 | (Atl, Dall, Det, Mia, NYG, Oak) |
| 2017 | 8 | (Buf, Car, Jax, LAR, Min, NO, Phi, Ten) |
| 2018 | 7 | (Balt, Chi, Dall, Hou, Ind, LAC, Sea) |
| 2019 | 5 | (Buf, GB, Min, SF, Ten) |
—Ian Allan