The Seahawks have allowed 22 rushing touchdowns but are a game away from playing in the NFC Championship game. That’s not the usual route.
Usually when a team allows a bunch of rushing touchdowns, that means it’s not very good and is losing a bunch of games. Since the league moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, 138 teams have allowed at least 20 rushing touchdowns in a season. Only 16 percent of those teams finished with winning records.
Of the 22 teams that managed to finish with winning records despite allowing a 20-plus rushing touchdowns, half didn’t even make the playoffs (these were 9-7 type teams that fell short of getting wild card spots).
Of the unusual 11 that made the playoffs, they at least punched a little above their weight. Eight of those teams (including Seattle) won a playoff game. Two went to the Super Bowl (with Buffalo losing to Washington in 1991, and the Colts beating Chicago following the 2006 season). Those two Super Bowl teams both allowed 20 rushing touchdowns (2 fewer than the Seahawks).
If Seattle is able to win at Green Bay on Sunday, it will become just the third such team to win multiple playoff games.
For fantasy purposes, I think Seattle’s tendency to allow rushing touchdowns puts Aaron Jones in the running back conversation for this week. There are two elite running backs in play – Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Jones isn’t as good as those guys, but given the matchups, I think he’s more likely to score a touchdown this week than either Cook or Henry.
Green Bay tends to score rushing touchdowns – 18 in the regular season. So with Seattle’s 22 allowed, that’s a combined 40 in the regular season. Tennessee (21) and Minnesota (19) also scored plenty of rushing touchdowns in the regular season, but they’re facing defenses that have allowed only 12 and 11 rushing touchdowns.
Strictly for touchdowns, I like Jones better than Cook or Henry this week.
(If we’re including rushing and receiving yards, then I would call Cook the top back.)
| WINNING TEAMS ALLOWING 20-PLUS TD RUNS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | W-L | Result |
| 1979 | Cleveland | 577 | 2,604 | 4.5 | 25 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 1981 | San Diego | 491 | 1,825 | 3.7 | 25 | 10-6 | 1-1 in playoffs |
| 1979 | Seattle | 533 | 2,375 | 4.5 | 23 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 1983 | St. Louis | 443 | 1,838 | 4.1 | 23 | 8-7-1 | no playoffs |
| 1986 | Cincinnati | 514 | 2,122 | 4.1 | 23 | 10-6 | no playoffs |
| 1979 | New England | 495 | 1,770 | 3.6 | 22 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 2003 | Minnesota | 387 | 1,879 | 4.9 | 22 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 2017 | Buffalo | 466 | 1,994 | 4.3 | 22 | 9-7 | 0-1 in playoffs |
| 2019 | Seattle | 388 | 1,883 | 4.9 | 22 | 11-5 | ??? |
| 1978 | Atlanta | 578 | 2,067 | 3.6 | 21 | 9-7 | 1-1 in playoffs |
| 1979 | Washington | 541 | 2,154 | 4.0 | 21 | 10-6 | no playoffs |
| 1983 | LA Rams | 489 | 1,781 | 3.6 | 21 | 9-7 | 1-1 in playoffs |
| 2002 | Denver | 379 | 1,489 | 3.9 | 21 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 1978 | Minnesota | 559 | 2,116 | 3.8 | 20 | 8-7-1 | 0-1 in playoffs |
| 1978 | Seattle | 551 | 2,513 | 4.6 | 20 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 1988 | Houston | 431 | 1,592 | 3.7 | 20 | 10-6 | 1-1 in playoffs |
| 1988 | New England | 496 | 2,099 | 4.2 | 20 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 1989 | Houston | 437 | 1,669 | 3.8 | 20 | 9-7 | 0-1 in playoffs |
| 1991 | • Buffalo | 519 | 2,044 | 3.9 | 20 | 13-3 | lost Super Bowl |
| 1996 | Washington | 520 | 2,275 | 4.4 | 20 | 9-7 | no playoffs |
| 2004 | Atlanta | 434 | 1,681 | 3.9 | 20 | 11-5 | 1-1 in playoffs |
| 2006 | • Indianapolis | 519 | 2,768 | 5.3 | 20 | 12-4 | won Super Bowl |
—Ian Allan