The more I look at the Vikings-49ers game, the more I think that game will be closer than what most are expecting. I don’t think it’s a terrible matchup for Minnesota’s offense.
San Francisco at one point seemed to have perhaps the league’s best defense. It allowed only 7 TDs in its first seven games. We’ve seen that defense totally shut down the Browns, Rams and Packers. But times change, injuries occur, and the 49ers nowadays are looking more average on defense.
In its last nine games, that defense has allowed 27 touchdowns. It’s gone from allowing 1 to 3 TDs per week. Two thirds of those nine opponents have scored at least 3 TDs.
A contrarian would point out that San Francisco’s three best games in the second half of the season all came against teams that are still playing. Green Bay scored only 8 points in a game at Santa Clara in November. The next week, the 49ers allowed only 2 TDs at Baltimore. And Seattle’s offense scored only 2 TDs when it visited in Week 10 (it also scored a defensive touchdown in that game).
I’m not arguing that this is a creampuff matchup for the Vikings, but some chance they can have some success both running and passing. I’m going with Dalvin Cook as my top running back for this week. I’m not as bullish on Kirk Cousins, but I’ve got him ahead of Ryan Tannehill (and not far behind Jimmy Garoppolo).
San Francisco ranked 2nd in scoring defense in the first half of the season. It had a bottom-10 scoring defense in the second half.
(On the chart here, the other remaining teams tagged with black dots.)
| SCORING DEFENSE (each half of the season) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | G 1-8 | Rk | G 9-16 | Rk |
| • Baltimore | 22 | 15 | 13.3 | 1 |
| • Kansas City | 22.6 | 17 | 15.9 | 2 |
| Buffalo | 16.4 | 3 | 16.0 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 21.1 | 13 | 16.8 | 4 |
| NY Jets | 26.4 | 25 | 18.5 | 5 |
| Atlanta | 31.2 | 30 | 18.6 | 6 |
| • Green Bay | 20.4 | 11t | 18.8 | 7 |
| Chicago | 18 | 7 | 19.3 | 8 |
| Philadelphia | 24.9 | 21 | 19.4 | 9 |
| New England | 7.6 | 1 | 20.5 | 10 |
| Denver | 18.9 | 8 | 20.6 | 11 |
| • Minnesota | 16.5 | 4 | 21.4 | 12 |
| Dallas | 17.8 | 6 | 22.4 | 13 |
| New Orleans | 19.5 | 9 | 23.1 | 14 |
| LA Chargers | 19.6 | 10 | 23.5 | 15t |
| Cleveland | 25.6 | 23 | 23.5 | 15t |
| LA Rams | 21.8 | 14 | 23.8 | 17 |
| • Tennessee | 16.9 | 5 | 24.5 | 18t |
| Indianapolis | 22.1 | 16 | 24.5 | 18t |
| • Houston | 23.5 | 18 | 24.6 | 20t |
| Tampa Bay | 31.5 | 31 | 24.6 | 20t |
| • Seattle | 24.5 | 20 | 25.3 | 22 |
| Oakland | 27 | 26 | 25.4 | 23 |
| Detroit | 27.1 | 27 | 25.8 | 24 |
| San Francisco | 12.8 | 2 | 26.0 | 25 |
| Cincinnati | 26.2 | 24 | 26.3 | 26 |
| Arizona | 27.9 | 29 | 27.4 | 27 |
| NY Giants | 27.2 | 28 | 29.1 | 28 |
| Jacksonville | 20.4 | 11t | 29.3 | 29 |
| Miami | 32 | 32 | 29.8 | 30 |
| Washington | 24.4 | 19 | 30.0 | 31 |
| Carolina | 25.5 | 22 | 33.3 | 32 |
—Ian Allan