We’ve all heard about how good Andy Reid is when given an extra week to prepare. Is that actually a meaningful thing? Should it cause us to believe Kansas City’s offense will come out on Saturday playing some of its best ball? (Should the Texans even bother showing up?)
Reid has been a head coach for over 20 years, so there’s considerable data to work with. Including his years with the Eagles, Reid is 18-3 after bye weeks in the regular season. If we include playoff games, Reid is 22-5. He’s gone 4-1 when playing at home in a divisional playoff game (like what he’ll have on Saturday against Houston). I went back and forth but also included his Super Bowl loss from 2004, when both the Eagles and the Patriots had an extra week, but that’s a little different than a traditional bye.
If we look at how Reid fared in the weeks to those games, he went only 14-13. That’s a notable difference – 22-5 versus only 14-13. If you want to look at just regular season, then 18-3 against 10-11. (For fantasy purposes, maybe we should all be trying to start players against Andy Reid teams the weeks before byes.)
For fantasy purposes, we’re more concerned with offensive production. On that front, the Andy Reid bye week factor hasn’t been as dynamic. In his 27 games following byes, his teams have averaged 24.3 points. Those same teams averaged 23.2 points in their 27 games before those byes – a difference of less than 5 percent.
There are a couple of iffy games in here. Reid’s first bye game, back in 1999, came against a really good Greatest Show on Turf team that would go on to win the Super Bowl. With those teams playing in Week 17, the Rams held out most of their regulars, allowing the Eagles to pull a 38-31 upset. Similarly, the Eagles were headed to the Super Bowl in 2004; they held out their regulars in Week 17 causing them to score only 10 points in a yawner loss against a bad Cincinnati team (a game played before a bye week). If we set aside those two games, then Reid’s teams have averaged 23.7 points before and 23.8 points after byes – not much of a difference at all.
| ANDY REID AFTER BYE WEEKS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Opponent | Result |
| 1999 | St. Louis | W 38-31 |
| 2000 | Cincinnati | W 16-7 |
| 2001 | at NY Giants | W 10-9 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | W 20-10 |
| 2002 | • Atlanta | W 20-6 |
| 2003 | at Buffalo | W 23-13 |
| 2003 | • Green Bay | W 20-17 (OT) |
| 2004 | Carolina | W 30-8 |
| 2004 | • Minnesota | W 27-14 |
| 2004 | • v. New England (SB) | L 21-24 |
| 2005 | San Diego | W 20-17 |
| 2006 | Washington | W 27-3 |
| 2007 | at NY Jets | W 16-9 |
| 2008 | Atlanta | W 27-14 |
| 2009 | Tampa Bay | W 33-14 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | W 26-24 |
| 2011 | Dallas | W 34-7 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | L 17-30 |
| 2013 | at Denver | L 17-27 |
| 2014 | at San Diego | W 23-20 |
| 2015 | at Denver | W 29-13 |
| 2016 | at Oakland | W 26-10 |
| 2016 | • Pittsburgh | L 16-18 |
| 2017 | at NY Giants | L 9-12 |
| 2018 | Oakland | W 40-33 |
| 2018 | • Indianapolis | W 31-13 |
| 2019 | Oakland | W 40-9 |
| 2019 | • Houston | ??? |
• -- playoff game
—Ian Allan