The two biggest questions surrounding Super Bowl LIV involve San Francisco's running game and Kansas City's passing game. Can the opposing defense shut down or at least limit that top-performing offensive component? The answer will go a long way to determining the outcome.
Today I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes, the game's top quarterback, versus San Francisco's top-ranked pass defense.
There's a decent sample set of games to look at. Mahomes during the season played seven games against opponents ranked in the top 10 in pass defense. One of those, at Denver, I'm tossing out because he left early with an injury. He was playing well prior to that though: 10 of 11 for 76 yards and a touchdown, in a game Kansas City went on to win easily, 30-6.
In his six complete games against top-10 pass defenses, Mahomes was generally very good. Kansas City won all six games, three of them easily. He put up great numbers in half of them.
| MAHOMES VS. TOP-10 PASS DEFENSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Pass | Run | TD | Result |
| Balt. | 374 | 9 | 3 | W, 33-28 |
| at LAC | 182 | 59 | 1 | W, 24-17 |
| at N.E. | 283 | 6 | 1 | W, 23-16 |
| Den. | 340 | 11 | 2 | W, 23-3 |
| at Chi. | 251 | 14 | 3 | W, 26-3 |
| LAC | 174 | 21 | 1 | W, 31-21 |
| Avg | 267 | 20 | 1.8 | |
The other part of the equation is how San Francisco's top-ranked pass defense fared against top quarterbacks. This is a little trickier since there can be differing opinions on who the top quarterbacks are. We can all agree on Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, but probably not on Jared Goff. I ended up including Goff, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins and MVP Lamar Jackson, while leaving Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray on the cutting room floor. Few of those guys are close to Patrick Mahomes, but they're capable starters and I came down on the side of using them. Here are the results.
| TOP QUARTERBACKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pass | Run | TD | Result |
| Winston, T.B. | 194 | 13 | 1 | L, 31-17 |
| Goff, LAR | 78 | 0 | 0 | L, 20-7 |
| Wilson, Sea. | 232 | 53 | 1 | W, 27-24 |
| Rodgers, G.B. | 104 | 13 | 1 | L, 37-8 |
| Jackson, Balt. | 105 | 101 | 2 | W, 20-17 |
| Brees, N.O. | 349 | 1 | 6 | L, 48-46 |
| Ryan, Atl. | 210 | 27 | 2 | W, 29-22 |
| Goff, LAR | 323 | 12 | 2 | L, 34-31 |
| Wilson, Sea. | 233 | 29 | 2 | L, 26-21 |
| Cousins, Minn. | 172 | 0 | 1 | L, 27-10 |
| Rodgers, G.B. | 326 | 0 | 2 | L, 37-20 |
| Avg | 211 | 23 | 1.8 | |
Collectively, those quarterbacks went 3-8 against this defense. Drew Brees had a monster game; San Francisco was a little banged-up at the time, but regardless, a performance that Mahomes is certainly capable of. Both Goff and Wilson (twice) had credible performances against this defense, while Rodgers finished with decent numbers last week (plenty of debate over whether he played well).
Winston, Goff (once), Rodgers (once) and Cousins all had lousy games against San Francisco. Ryan and Lamar Jackson (thanks to his running) got wins, but put up lesser numbers.
When I put together projections for Mahomes and Kansas City's offense next week, I think I'll wind up using numbers closer to Mahomes' averages against top defenses during the season than what San Francisco allowed. For now I'll throw out 280 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, plus some rushing potential (both yards and touchdowns). He's got the tougher matchup than Jimmy Garoppolo, but definitely the quarterback of the two you'd prefer to be starting in this game. By far.
--Andy Richardson