There isn't necessarily a lot of mystery in the rankings at this point. Maybe. I think we know who the better quarterback is in Super Bowl LIV, and the better defense, for example. But factoring in the matchup, things become more interesting. Do you want the better defense all season, or the one that's not facing Patrick Mahomes?
Over the next few days we'll take a look at the two teams playing in Super Bowl LIV on Sunday, position by position. First up, the Kickers and Defenses.
KICKERS
Only four teams ranked in the top 6 during the regular season in both field goals and extra points. New Orleans, Dallas, and the two teams playing this game. Harrison Butker led the league in kicking points, up at 9.2 per game. He made just under 90 percent of his field goal attempts, and 3 of his 4 misses were from outside 50 yards. He's great, at 90 percent for his career, and more than half (6) of his 11 career misses have come from 50-plus.
Robbie Gould missed three games due to injury this year, keeping him out of the top kickers in total scoring. And he also wasn't nearly as accurate. He made 23 of 31 kicks, which is under 75 percent. Half (4) of his eight misses were from outside 50 yards, at least. During the season he missed all 4 attempts from that range, but then was good from 54 against the Packers in the NFC Championship game, in what was a key momentum builder (had he missed, Green Bay would have had the ball near midfield down 7-0). On the season, despite the misses, he averaged 8.5 kicking points. He missed just one extra point (41 of 42).
We tend to favor kickers from teams we think will win; statistically those guys usually do better. The betting lines currently have Kansas City favored by a point (I'm not going to spoil our pick this early). It should be a close, competitive game, though, where no one should be surprised if either team wins.
Straight off the numbers, Gould has the better matchup, though not by much. Kansas City allowed just 5.4 kicking points per game during the season, but San Francisco was even stingier: 5.0. Only Buffalo (16) allowed fewer field goals than San Francisco (17). We'll put Gould slightly higher, but it's a real tossup. If you're in a salary cap-type league and want to save a buck or two, take the cheaper option. Or if you're confident one team will win, that's the kicker to make the slight favorite.
DEFENSES
During the regular season, the 49ers Defense was the better of the two. It ranked about 10 spots higher against both the pass (1st versus 11th) and run (17th versus 26th), and was 2nd in total yards allowed (the Kansas City Defense was way down at 17th). Points allowed were nearly identical (19.3 for Kansas City versus 19.4 for San Francisco).
Fantasy-wise, the two were more similar than you might think. San Francisco had 3 more sacks (48-45) and more than twice as many fumble recoveries (15-7), but there's a lot of chance involved in that latter category, and Kansas City was better for interceptions (16-12). San Francisco had a 5-3 edge in defensive touchdowns, but Kansas City had the only kick return score between the two teams.
Without question, there's a far greater chance of Mecole Hardman bringing a punt or kickoff back for a touchdown than anyone on the 49ers doing so. Only five guys had more punt returns of 20-plus yards than Hardman (2) during the season, and he added a 58-yarder on a kickoff in the playoff game against Houston. Kansas City has used Tyreek Hill on a couple of returns in the postseason, which would be even more appealing. Hill handled just one return of any kind during the regular season, but had 4 touchdowns on punt returns his first three seasons in the league.
San Francisco is using Richie James on returns, and he did have a 26-yard return of a punt against the Packers. During the regular season, he had one that long, while adding an 81-yard return of a kickoff. No touchdowns, but clearly he's not chopped liver. He is, however, less dangerous than either Hardman or Hill. Neither team allowed a touchdown on either a punt or kickoff during the season.
Since return touchdowns are rare, that alone isn't enough to edge Kansas City's defense ahead of San Francisco's. But the matchup is. Patrick Mahomes threw only 5 interceptions all season; that's in 16 games, including the 2 playoffs (where he's thrown none). He also took only 19 sacks and lost 2 fumbles. He's tough to get down behind the line of scrimmage, and tough to get many mistakes off.
Contrast that with Jimmy Garoppolo. Handsome enough fellow, and he's in the Super Bowl in his first full season as a starter; can't take that way from him. But including the playoffs he's thrown 14 interceptions in 18 games; that's about three times as many as Mahomes. He's also taken twice as many sacks (39) and lost more than twice as many fumbles (5).
So while San Francisco has the slightly better pass rush, the matchup definitely favors Kansas City. Add in the potential of Hardman (or Hill) bringing a kick back for a touchdown, and we'll rank the Kansas City Defense a little higher.
Over the next couple of days we'll look at all the positional players for each team, then see how the rankings shake out.
--Andy Richardson