With the preliminaries (kickers and defenses) dealt with, we move to the star power portion of the Super Bowl. A couple of top-performing running backs, when given the opportunity, as well as the reigning MVP and a guy who supposedly Bill Belichick wanted to keep over Tom Brady a couple of years back. Where will the game's best numbers come from?
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes is probably the game's best quarterback -- certainly this game's best quarterback. But he's facing what was the No. 1-ranked pass defense during the season, one that allowed 51 fewer passing yards per game than the Kansas City defense that Jimmy Garoppolo will face. Is that more difficult matchup enough to narrow the gap between the two quarterbacks, possibly making Garoppolo a comparable fantasy option?
In a word, no.
Last week I took a look at how Mahomes had fared against the league's best pass defenses during the season, and also how San Francisco had fared against the league's better passers. The link is there if you want to revisit; I don't want to rehash it all.
The gist, though, is that Mahomes tended to deliver at least above-average numbers regardless of opponent. He won all six of his games against top-10 pass defenses, and threw for over 280 yards three times and had multiple touchdowns three times. Only the Chargers, who held him under 200 passing yards and to just 1 touchdown in each game, really contained Mahomes. You can bet San Francisco has reviewed those games over the past week, seeing if there was something they can take away from them to also limit Mahomes.
San Francisco's defense, meanwhile, harassed Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff to about the worst passing games of their respective careers in the regular season. But Goff in his other game was fine, Russell Wilson was productive twice, and Drew Brees had a huge game in a wild shootout in New Orleans. San Francisco's defense was banged-up and missing some key pass rush elements for a lot of those games. Healthy against Rodgers last week, it shut him down for a half, but he finished with strong numbers (primarily in garbage-time).
My suspicion is Mahomes won't be kept in check for an entire game. No one should be looking for a 350-yard, 3-TD performance. But 300 and at least 2 TDs is well within his ability, even if he has a tougher time getting there than usual. (Biggest concern is San Francisco controlling the clock with its ground game, limiting his chances.) Mahomes will run some, too, as he showed on an exciting touchdown scramble against Tennessee; he's rushed for 53 yards in each playoff game, with that touchdown.
Contrast that with Garoppolo. While Kansas City's pass defense wasn't as good as San Francisco's, it was above-average (11th). It also allowed only 21 touchdown passes, 2 fewer than San Francisco. Garoppolo threw more than 2 touchdowns four times during the season: the crazy shootout with New Orleans, and in three games against two of the worst pass defenses in the league (Arizona twice and Cincinnati). Garoppolo isn't a runner, going over 8 yard in a game just once all season.
Both teams should have success on the ground (we'll get to that in a minute). For Kansas City, that should help open up some big plays for Mahomes and the passing game. For San Francisco, as we've seen in the two playoff games (where Garoppolo has totaled 208 yards and 1 TD), that should limit Garoppolo's numbers. This game should be higher scoring and he may have to do a little more. But very likely he finishes with around 100 fewer passing yards and 1 fewer touchdown than Mahomes. At least.
RUNNING BACKS
It would be incorrect to say stopping the run doesn't matter in the NFL. Seven of the league's top 13 run defenses made the playoffs. But both Super Bowl teams were below-average against the run: 17th-ranked San Francisco and 26th-ranked Kansas City. The 49ers missed Kwon Alexander for half the season, and probably aren't that bad, while Kansas City was a lot worse against the run during its 6-4 start (allowing 148 yards per game) than its 8-0 stretch since (allowing just 94 yards per game).
But both teams were vulnerable for much of the season against the run, and while both teams used committees for much of the season, they seem to have settled on featured backs now. So there should be a couple of very good running back performances in the Super Bowl.
Raheem Mostert was San Francisco's lead back down the stretch, averaging 90 total yards (76 run, 14 rec) over the last five regular-season games, with 7 touchdowns. A calf injury against Minnesota freed up Tevin Coleman to rush for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game, but Kyle Shanahan indicated afterward the plan had been for Mostert to continue as the main runner. A shoulder injury for Coleman against Green Bay made plans moot; Mostert had one of the all-time great postseason rushing performances, going for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Shanahan says Coleman has a chance to play in the Super Bowl, but he didn't practice at all last week and seems like a longshot. If he's active, he'll be the No. 2, and the early lean is that player will instead be Matt Breida. Breida played only 2 snaps against Green Bay; he's been phased out of the offense, probably due to a pair of fumbles in Week 15 against Atlanta and another against the Vikings. If Coleman is active, Breida might not get on the field at all, and either way, Mostert should be the workhorse. The way San Francisco's running game is dialed in -- 186 yards and 2 TDs against Minnesota, and 285 and 4 against Green Bay -- he looks very likely to run for another 120 yards and 1-2 touchdowns.
Damien Williams won't be as productive a runner. San Francisco's run defense has an average ranking, but it's better with Kwon Alexander healthy, and Kansas City's ground game isn't particularly good (23rd during the season, miles shy of 2nd-ranked San Francisco). But Williams did rush for at least 65 yards in his last four healthy regular-season games, averaging 98 on the ground in those contests. He rushed for 45 and 47 yards in the two playoff games, with 3 touchdowns. Only two of those teams had lower-ranked run defenses than San Francisco.
And Williams will be a big part of the passing game. In those same six contests he caught 21 balls for 157 and 2 TDs; 26 yards per game. Kansas City has scrapped its committee lately. LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson each played 1 snap in the win over Houston. McCoy was inactive against the Titans (due to illness, which seldom sidelines players). Thompson played 11 snaps but touched the ball just once. Maybe Kansas City dusts off McCoy for some extra touches; that's our guess, anyway. But Williams will probably get 75-80 percent of the work, at least. He won't rush for as many yards as Mostert, but factoring in receiving potential and overall workload, he also looks good.
Rankings, which we'll compile after all the previews are written, will slot Mostert comfortably ahead of Williams. Coleman, if active, will be the No. 3 (otherwise, McCoy looks like the next-best option).
We'll take a look at wide receivers and tight ends tomorrow, then assemble final Super Bowl rankings.
--Andy Richardson