We've talked some in recent weeks about contracts for elite running backs, how they're underpaid compared to other positions. It would help their case if teams don't often regret the big contracts they give to those players, as is happening with the Rams and Todd Gurley.
Gurley is due a $7.5 million roster bonus in March, which they might not want to pay a back whose elite performances seem to be in the past. Problem is that releasing Gurley would have even greater salary cap ramifications. There's also not much chance of trading that contract. Most likely even the Rams don't know what they're going to do.
Gurley averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt last year, which is a yard per carry less than what he averaged in each of the two previous seasons. You have to go back to Jeff Fisher's last season, 2016, when the team had one of the league's most hapless offenses, finishing 1-11 after a 3-1 start, for a worse performance from Gurley. That one can be chalked up to a dysfunctional offense and checked out team. Last season is harder to explain.
The offensive line, though, is certainly part of the issue. It's not as if the team's other backs fared any better. Malcolm Brown (3.7 yards per attempt) and Darrell Henderson (3.8) were also under 4 yards per carry. So maybe the Rams will look at that and decide they can go another year with Gurley leading the backfield. Financially, it's better for the cap than releasing him.
Where Gurley's apparent decline is most marked in in terms of explosive plays -- runs or receptions of 20-plus or 40-plus yards. In the 2017-2018 seasons, he had 42 such big plays; 17 and 25 in the two years. Last year? Just 8, including zero 40-yard runs or receptions.
| GURLEY EXPLOSIVE PLAYS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 20+run | 40+ run | 20+rec | 40+rec | Tot |
| 2015 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 2016 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 2017 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 25 |
| 2018 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 2019 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
Gurley loyalists can point to 2016, when he also had only 7 such plays, as evidence that it's not all on him -- the offense and the line in front of him need to be better in 2020. Maybe that will free him up for some more big plays. Gurley won't even turn 26 years old until August, so maybe it's too soon to write him off.
Considering the contract, I think the Rams might have to bring Gurley back, unless they decide to take the cap hit and look at 2020 as a rebuilding type year. Lean is that we've already seen the best of Gurley, even if we haven't seen the last of him in Los Angeles.
--Andy Richardson