Tom Brady to the Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Bucs or Titans? Just what would a potential buyer be getting anyway. Brady’s won more games than anyone, but he’s 42, and his play dipped noticeably last year.
Despite his extensive workout routine and carefully planned out diet, Brady has lost arm strength and mobility, and he wasn’t the same quarterback last year. Some of the decline can be attributed to a supporting cast that wasn’t as good – both offensive line and pass catchers – but some portion of the dip can be attributed to TB12 himself.
At this point of the year, I’m working through some of the various stat charts that we maintain and observe (we’ve got about 300 of them). I just finished polishing up the table for passing inside the 10, and I see that Brady was the league’s worst quarterback (among qualifiers) in that part of the field.
Inside the 10, Brady last year went 20 of 47, with 2 sacks, an interception, 9 TDs and a 2-point conversion (2-point conversions aren’t officially NFL “plays”, but they’re telling and informative, so I’ve included them here).
When Brady dropped back to pass inside the 10, he successfully got the ball in the end zone on only 20 percent of his plays. That’s worse than all 29 of the other quarterbacks who participated in 20 pass plays in that part of the field. Andy Dalton, Case Keenum, Kyle Allen? All better than Brady last year.
| PASSING INSIDE THE 10-YARD LINE | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Comp | Att | Pct | TD | Int | sack | EZ% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 18 | 29 | 62% | 16 | 0 | 1 | 53% |
| Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 14 | 19 | 74% | 10 | 1 | 1 | 51% |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 21 | 34 | 62% | 16 | 0 | 0 | 47% |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 18 | 32 | 56% | 16 | 0 | 2 | 47% |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 14 | 22 | 646% | 10 | 1 | 2 | 42% |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 19 | 33 | 58% | 15 | 2 | 3 | 42% |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 25 | 64% | 11 | 0 | 2 | 41% |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 14 | 29 | 48% | 13 | 1 | 3 | 41% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 27 | 44 | 61% | 18 | 1 | 1 | 40% |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 14 | 28 | 50% | 12 | 0 | 2 | 40% |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 15 | 26 | 587% | 11 | 0 | 2 | 39% |
| Jared Goff, LAR | 23 | 39 | 59% | 15 | 0 | 0 | 39% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 15 | 23 | 65% | 10 | 0 | 3 | 39% |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 22 | 43 | 51% | 17 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 12 | 23 | 52% | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38% |
| Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 19 | 38 | 50% | 13 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 18 | 36 | 50% | 12 | 1 | 1 | 32% |
| Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15 | 32 | 47% | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32% |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 13 | 25 | 52% | 9 | 0 | 3 | 32% |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 11 | 23 | 48% | 8 | 0 | 2 | 32% |
| Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 42 | 38% | 14 | 3 | 2 | 32% |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 23 | 38 | 61% | 13 | 1 | 3 | 32% |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 25 | 38 | 66% | 12 | 1 | 1 | 31% |
| Kyle Allen, Car. | 15 | 34 | 44% | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 11 | 24 | 46% | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26% |
| Philip Rivers, LAC | 21 | 38 | 55% | 10 | 2 | 2 | 25% |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 12 | 26 | 46% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25% |
| Case Keenum, Was. | 9 | 24 | 38% | 6 | 0 | 1 | 24% |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 14 | 39 | 36% | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23% |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 20 | 47 | 43% | 10 | 1 | 2 | 20% |
Note: On these charts, “touchdowns” include both TD passes and successful 2-point conversions. Brady last year didn’t finish with 10 TD passes in that part of the field, but 9 TDs and a 2-point conversion.
Brady fans, of course, will be quick to point the finger at blocking breakdowns and lesser play from wide receivers. They don’t have Rob Gronkowski anymore. We can all watch the film and gauge whether he’s the same guy and being dragged down by those around him. But the numbers were definitely worse.
If we trot out the numbers from the last 10 years, for example, we can see that Brady’s play hasn’t been as good the last two years. His efficiency in that part of the field was dramatically better in the first eight years of the decade.
| BRADY PASSING INSIDE THE 10 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Com | Att | Pct | TD | Int | Sk | EZ% |
| 2010 | 31 | 47 | 66% | 21 | 0 | 3 | 42% |
| 2011 | 24 | 49 | 49% | 18 | 1 | 2 | 35% |
| 2012 | 26 | 47 | 55% | 18 | 1 | 3 | 36% |
| 2013 | 20 | 41 | 49% | 14 | 1 | 3 | 32% |
| 2014 | 25 | 42 | 60% | 19 | 0 | 2 | 43% |
| 2015 | 23 | 40 | 58% | 17 | 2 | 2 | 41% |
| 2016 | 22 | 34 | 65% | 14 | 1 | 2 | 39% |
| 2017 | 21 | 37 | 57% | 18 | 0 | 4 | 44% |
| 2018 | 16 | 41 | 39% | 12 | 0 | 4 | 27% |
| 2019 | 20 | 47 | 43% | 10 | 1 | 2 | 20% |
With Brady’s smarts and experience, it makes sense for teams to kick the tires, considering whether to bring him in. But it’s a signing that could definitely backfire in a huge way. He might not be anything close to what he’s been in the past.
—Ian Allan