Picking a fantasy defense is hard. Teams fall off from the previous season all the time; Chicago a year ago and Jacksonville the year before that. A pretty good rule of thumb, though, is to focus on team wins when selecting one.
It's logical that teams that win games have more chances for sacks and takeaways. There's a chicken-or-egg component here; some teams are winning more games because they're getting more sacks and takeaways. Which comes first?
But when you see a team like New England ranking 11th or better in fantasy defense (1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for touchdowns) in seven of the last 10 years, it looks a lot more likely that it's because they keep winning double-digit games and making deep playoff runs than because of having a defensive mastermind or a boatload of top pass rushers or sticky-fingered defensive backs. Yes, their defense is a big factor in them winning games, seldom more so than last season. But winning games definitely helps their defense stand out, especially in fantasy terms.
2019 was a very good year for this approach. Last year, six of the top nine fantasy defenses won double-digit games. The top 10 averaged 10.5 wins. Six of the worst nine fantasy defenses won 6 games or fewer. The bottom 10 averaged only 6.5 wins.
| WINS AND FANTASY DEFENSES, 2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | Team | FF Pts | FF Rk |
| 12 | New England | 10.2 | 1 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 9.6 | 2 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay | 8.7 | 3 |
| 13 | San Francisco | 8.3 | 4 |
| 14 | Baltimore | 7.8 | 5 |
| 9 | LA Rams | 7.8 | 6-7 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 7.8 | 6-7 |
| 13 | New Orleans | 7.7 | 8 |
| 12 | Kansas City | 7.3 | 9-10 |
| 7 | NY Jets | 7.3 | 9-10 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 7.2 | 11 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 6.9 | 12 |
| 11 | Seattle | 6.9 | 13 |
| 5 | Carolina | 6.6 | 14 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 6.3 | 15 |
| 10 | Buffalo | 6.1 | 16 |
| 6 | Jacksonville | 6.1 | 17 |
| 3 | Washington | 6.0 | 18 |
| 13 | Green Bay | 5.6 | 19 |
| 4 | NY Giants | 5.5 | 20 |
| 10 | Houston | 5.4 | 21 |
| 7 | Atlanta | 5.4 | 22 |
| 8 | Chicago | 5.3 | 23-24 |
| 6 | Cleveland | 5.3 | 23-24 |
| 3 | Detroit | 5.1 | 25 |
| 8 | Dallas | 4.9 | 26 |
| 7 | Denver | 4.9 | 27 |
| 5 | Arizona | 4.6 | 28-29 |
| 7 | Oakland | 4.6 | 28-29 |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 4.4 | 30 |
| 5 | Miami | 4.3 | 31 |
| 5 | LA Chargers | 4.0 | 32 |
Fantasy points based on 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for all touchdowns.
Sometimes it's easier said than done. Few thought the Chargers would be a 5-win team, so you got burned if you selected that defense. And the Packers won 13 games but barely snuck into the top 20 at the position; Houston won 10 and finished 21st.
But if you're putting together early defensive rankings, favor the teams you expect to be fighting for playoff spots come December. You're increasing your odds of picking a winner.