The Packers released Jimmy Graham yesterday, as expected. Old (in NFL terms) and expensive, there was no chance the team would bring him back. His production has been declining, and Green Bay has other options in-house.
Green Bay used a third-round pick on Jace Sternberger, and they could try him as their starter, or possibly even Robert Tonyan. They've also been connected to Austin Hooper, should they want to make the Falcon the highest-paid tight end in the game. (Someone surely will.) Whatever the case, they're done investing in minimal production from Graham.
It was surprising when the Saints traded him away for center Max Unger five years ago. But history suggests the Saints moved him at just the right time. In Seattle and Green Bay, he hasn't been close to the player he was the first half of his career in New Orleans.
In each of his first five seasons, he was a difference-making weapon in the red zone. He turned at least 1 out of every 10 catches into a touchdown in each of those years.
In his last five seasons, he's done that exactly once. In three of the other four, including the last two with the Packers, he's turned fewer than 8 percent of his catches into scores.
| JIMMY GRAHAM TOUCHDOWN RATES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | TD% |
| 2010 | N.O. | 44 | 31 | 356 | 5 | 16.1% |
| 2011 | N.O. | 149 | 99 | 1310 | 11 | 11.1% |
| 2012 | N.O. | 135 | 85 | 982 | 9 | 10.6% |
| 2013 | N.O. | 142 | 86 | 1215 | 16 | 18.6% |
| 2014 | N.O. | 125 | 85 | 889 | 10 | 11.8% |
| 2015 | Sea. | 74 | 48 | 605 | 2 | 4.2% |
| 2016 | Sea. | 95 | 65 | 923 | 6 | 9.2% |
| 2017 | Sea. | 96 | 57 | 520 | 10 | 17.5% |
| 2018 | G.B. | 89 | 55 | 636 | 2 | 3.6% |
| 2019 | G.B. | 60 | 38 | 447 | 3 | 7.9% |
Graham is 33 years old. We've seen some great tight ends play at far older than that, including Antonio Gates and Benjamin Watson in recent years. But unlikely any team commits good money for what Graham brings to the table at this point.
He'll probably sign somewhere, but his difference-making days are over (and have been for a while).
--Andy Richardson