Joe Burrow had a record-setting season for Louisiana State, winning the Heisman and the National Championship. He's widely expected to be the top pick in the NFL Draft, with a report yesterday that the Dolphins may be hoping to trade up. But a Plan B of Tua Tagovailoa looks pretty good too.

A year ago, there was no thought that Burrow would go No. 1. Teams were viewed as "Tanking for Tua: at the time. Burrow was a year removed from transferring from Ohio State (stuck behind Dwayne Haskins), and had a nondescript junior season: 2,894 yards, 58 percent completions, 16 touchdowns. Then the offense took off under passing game coordinator Joe Brady, and here we are.

Tagovailoa, meanwhile, suffered a significant hip injury, ending his college career on a gloomy note. He had other injuries (primarily ankle) at Alabama, a red flag for his pro prospects. Yesterday Tagovailoa said he was 100 percent healthy, but in today's pandemic, NFL teams won't be able to get the medical information they'd like. If they weren't already convinced that Burrow will be the better pro, the lack of up-to-the-minute physical analysis of Tagovailoa might help make that decision for them.

But Tagovailoa was a great college quarterback all along -- and great last year prior to getting hurt. Among first-round picks the last 20 years, his passer rating (using the NFL formula) was the best. Burrow was a close 2nd. (I'm also including Justin Herbert, another certain first-rounder.)

2020?Tua Tagovailoa71.4284011.27333147.3
2020?Joe Burrow76.3567110.76606143.7
20181Baker Mayfield70.5462711.45436137.9
20191Kyler Murray69.0436111.57427137.2
20122Robert Griffin III71.7429310.57376130.1
20152Marcus Mariota68.3445410.01424128.4
20051Alex Smith67.529529.31324125.5
20111Cam Newton66.1285410.19307124.9
201915Dwayne Haskins70.048319.06508123.2
201432Teddy Bridgewater71.039709.30314120.3
20044Philip Rivers72.044919.30347118.3
20121Andrew Luck71.335178.713710118.0
20021David Carr64.742999.03427116.9
201422Johnny Manziel69.941149.593713116.4
200525Jason Campbell69.6270010.00207115.7
200018Chad Pennington67.440069.253812114.5
20071JaMarcus Russell67.831299.15288114.3
200411Ben Roethlisberger69.144869.063710113.9
20095Mark Sanchez65.832078.763410113.0
201025Tim Tebow67.828959.22215112.7
2020?Justin Herbert66.834718.11326110.6
201626Paxton Lynch66.837768.52284110.6
20172Mitchell Trubisky68.037488.38306110.5
20161Jared Goff64.547198.924313109.8
20143Blake Bortles67.835819.37259109.6
201222Brandon Weeden72.347278.383713109.6
20063Vince Young65.230369.342610109.2
201710Patrick Mahomes65.750528.554110108.5
200610Matt Leinart65.738158.85288107.6
20162Carson Wentz62.516517.94174106.5
20037Byron Leftwich67.442688.693010106.4
200524Aaron Rodgers66.125668.12248105.8
200722Brady Quinn61.934267.34377104.4
201316EJ Manuel68.033978.782310104.3
201712Deshaun Watson67.045937.934117102.3
20031Carson Palmer63.239428.063310102.3
20091Matthew Stafford61.434599.032510101.7
20041Eli Manning62.436008.162910100.5
200818Joe Flacco63.542638.1823599.8
201810Josh Rosen62.637568.31261098.8
20023Joey Harrington57.824157.5023598.8
201832Lamar Jackson59.136608.51271098.0
20183Sam Darnold63.141438.63261397.4
200422J.P. Losman59.530777.29331494.3
20151Jameis Winston65.339078.37251893.2
201112Christian Ponder61.520446.8420893.0
200917Josh Freeman58.629457.7120891.8
20196Daniel Jones60.526746.8222990.0
20128Ryan Tannehill61.637447.05291589.2
20187Josh Allen56.318126.7116687.5
200319Kyle Boller53.428156.69281086.8
201110Blaine Gabbert63.431866.7116986.2
200611Jay Cutler59.130736.6521986.1
20083Matt Ryan59.345076.89311983.9
20118Jake Locker55.422656.8217982.5
200232Patrick Ramsey57.029356.54221381.1
20011Michael Vick54.012347.668680.1
200322Rex Grossman57.134026.76221778.3

Passer rating isn't everything, though the number of guys at the bottom of the table that flamed out quickly is noteworthy. Boller, Gabbert, Locker, Ramsey or Grossman, anyone? Matt Ryan looks like the only top NFL passer in that area.

Every year there's an effort to present uncertainty over who the top quarterback in the draft is, dating back to a supposed debate over whether Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf should be the No. 1 overall pick. Most likely it will be Burrow.

But Tagovailoa is a really nice prospect. Somebody is going to take him at 2 or 3 or 5 and get their franchise quarterback. Not a given, to me, that Burrow winds up being the best from this draft.

--Andy Richardson