Is Ezekiel Elliott still a best of the best running back? Or is he now just one of the very good backs? He wasn’t as explosive last year.

Look, for example, at his 20-yard runs. He had 14 and 11 such plays in his first two full seasons. He had only 4 of those runs last year. The change-of-pace back behind him, Tony Pollard, also had 4 of those runs, with a sliver of the playing time.

Setting aside his suspension-marred season, Elliott has averaged fewer rushing yards per game every year, and his yards-per-carry has decreased in each of those seasons, from 5.1 to 4.7 to 4.5.

Elliott has piled up over 7,000 combined yards over the last four years, but this is a position where the hits add up, and the explosiveness can get pounded out of a player. At the running back position, it’s hard to stay on the very top of the mountain.

Consider, for example, the other 44 running backs who’ve gone over 7,000 yards in a four-year stretch. Three of said players didn’t play at all and can be set aside. But only nine of the remaining 41 came back and finished either 1st or 2nd in PPR scoring the next season. One finished in 3rd, and one finished in 4th.

Only 21 of these 41 player – barely over half – ranked in the top 10 statistically in their next season.

7,000-YARD RUNNING BACKS (the next year)
YearPlayerYrRunRecTotalTDPPRRk
1976O.J. Simpson, Buff.81,5032591,7629252.23
1977O.J. Simpson, Buff.9557138695085.554
1980Walter Payton, Chi.61,4603671,8277270.75
1981Walter Payton, Chi.71,2223791,6018249.115
1982Walter Payton, Chi.85963119071134.713
1984William Andrews, Atl.621435249135.998
1986Walter Payton, Chi.121,3333821,71511274.56
1987Eric Dickerson, Rams-Ind.51,2881711,4596199.95
1987Marcus Allen, Oak.67544101,1645198.66
1987Walter Payton, Chi.135332177505138.026
1988Eric Dickerson, Ind.61,6593772,03615329.62
1990Eric Dickerson, Ind.8677927694118.935
1993Thurman Thomas, Buff.61,3153871,7026254.22
1994Thurman Thomas, Buff.71,0933491,4429248.28
1995Emmitt Smith, Dall.61,7733752,14825426.81
1995Thurman Thomas, Buff.81,0052201,2258196.520
1996Emmitt Smith, Dall.71,2042491,45315282.35
1997Barry Sanders, Det.92,0533052,35814352.81
1997Emmitt Smith, Dall.81,0742341,3084196.815
1998Barry Sanders, Det.101,4912891,7804239.011
1999Terrell Davis, Den.521126237238.787
1999Barry Sanders, Det.110000.0--
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.71,3598302,18926459.91
2001Marshall Faulk, St.L.81,3827652,14721425.71
2002Marshall Faulk, St.L.99535371,49010289.010
2003Marshall Faulk, St.L.108182901,10811221.816
2004Ahman Green, G.B.71,1632751,4388236.811
2004Priest Holmes, K.C.88921871,07915216.918
2004Ricky Williams, Mia.60000.0--
2005LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.51,4623701,83220368.62
2005Tiki Barber, NYG91,8605302,39011361.04
2005Priest Holmes, K.C.94511976487127.831
2005Ahman Green, G.B.8255147402059.265
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.61,8155082,32331483.31
2006Tiki Barber, NYG101,6624652,1275300.76
2006Shaun Alexander, Sea.7896489447148.433
2006Clinton Portis, Was.55231706937128.337
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.71,4744751,94918367.82
2007Tiki Barber, NYG110000.0--
2008LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.81,1104261,53612277.66
2009LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.973015488412180.424
2012Chris Johnson, Ten.51,2432321,4756219.512
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.61,0773451,42210244.29
2013Ray Rice, Balt.66603219814182.122
2020Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.5??????

I’m not opposed to drafting Elliott. He’s only 24 (will be 25 on opening day). He’s never been hurt; I love that. But he’s way more likely to finish 6th or 7th statistically among running backs, rather than up in the top 2.

—Ian Allan