Story circulating last week with the Bills talking about last year's third-rounder Devin Singletary. Brandon Beane said, "If we want him to be the workload guy, he could definitely do it." Given the hedge of "If," though, it's clear the Bills could still look to add somebody at the position.
Singletary comes off a strong rookie campaign, finishing with 969 total yards (775 run, 194 rec). That's the 8th-most total yards by a third-round rookie running back in the last 20 years. He's one of 26 third-rounders to put up at least 500 total yards in that first season, including three last year (Singletary, David Montgomery and Alexander Mattison). How have those players tended to fare a year later?
Depending on where you want to set the bar, Year 2 returns are pretty decent. Just over half (12) of the 23 previous third-rounders to put up at least 500 total yards in their rookie seasons came back and put up at least 800 total yards the next seasons. Half of those players (6) went over 1,000 total yards. Respectable track record.
| 3RD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS (500-PLUS YARDS), YEAR 2 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | Att | Yds | No | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2005 | 65 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 312 | 1695 | 61 | 485 | 2180 | 9 |
| 2015 | 86 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 293 | 1239 | 80 | 879 | 2118 | 20 |
| 2017 | 67 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 194 | 883 | 81 | 709 | 1592 | 18 |
| 2008 | 73 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 190 | 1120 | 40 | 297 | 1417 | 8 |
| 2017 | 86 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 181 | 824 | 26 | 378 | 1202 | 14 |
| 2008 | 64 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 217 | 747 | 41 | 415 | 1162 | 5 |
| 2011 | 71 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 161 | 663 | 35 | 251 | 914 | 4 |
| 2006 | 79 | Jerious Norwood, Atl. | 103 | 613 | 28 | 277 | 890 | 1 |
| 2009 | 65 | Shonn Greene, NYJ | 185 | 766 | 16 | 120 | 886 | 2 |
| 2015 | 77 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 73 | 358 | 53 | 514 | 872 | 1 |
| 2008 | 89 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 131 | 437 | 44 | 417 | 854 | 7 |
| 2001 | 80 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 145 | 675 | 14 | 136 | 811 | 5 |
| 2018 | 71 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 132 | 496 | 43 | 256 | 752 | 4 |
| 2012 | 84 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 152 | 436 | 20 | 104 | 540 | 2 |
| 2015 | 95 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 99 | 460 | 8 | 73 | 533 | 3 |
| 2014 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 52 | 271 | 21 | 173 | 444 | 3 |
| 2002 | 84 | Lamar Gordon, St.L. | 71 | 298 | 8 | 59 | 357 | 1 |
| 2014 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 75 | 207 | 18 | 88 | 295 | 1 |
| 2014 | 94 | Terrance West, Clev. | 62 | 231 | 4 | 21 | 252 | 0 |
| 2000 | 76 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | 35 | 119 | 13 | 132 | 251 | 0 |
| 2001 | 85 | Travis Minor, Mia. | 44 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 2 |
| 2001 | 65 | James Jackson, Clev. | 12 | 54 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 9 |
| 2000 | 63 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | 14 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 2 |
| 2019 | 73 | David Montgomery, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | 74 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | 102 | Alexander Mattison, Minn. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Most of those guy who didn't do much in their second seasons weren't as impressive as Singletary in their rookie seasons -- Redmond, Minor, Jackson, Prentice. Nobody was falling over themselves to select them in drafts the following summer. Whereas a lot of the guys who were in the 900-plus yard area as rookies (David Johnson, Duke Johnson), like Singletary, were pretty good in Year 2, too.
The draft is less than two weeks away. Buffalo doesn't have a first-round pick after the Stefon Diggs trade, putting more of a premium on the early picks they do have (just 2 in the top 125). They don't seem likely to draft a running back early. Maybe they add a veteran or strike gold with a fourth or fifth-rounder, but Singletary should be pretty secure as the No. 1 in 2020. And at good odds of putting up strong numbers.
--Andy Richardson