Well that escalated quickly. This morning came a report that Rob Gronkowski was saying he "might not be done with football," and would be most interested in playing for the Bucs with Tom Brady. Just hours later, the deal is done: Gronk and a 7th to Tampa Bay for a 4th.
My first reaction is why do teams keep doing Bill Belichick favors? Gronk had no interest in playing for the Patriots, but they somehow managed to get a fourth-rounder (and those things have value) for a player that retired a year ago. (A recent comparable exchange was Oakland giving Seattle a fifth-round pick for Marshawn Lynch and a sixth-rounder. Note the difference.)
Anyway, New England gets a fourth and Tampa Bay gets a tight end and a player they'll wind up cutting. And now suddenly Tampa Bay has a glut of tight ends, with Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate and a guy burning up the bottom of my dynasty roster in Tanner Hudson. So what's next?
Realistically, either Howard or Brate has to be dealt somewhere, right? Howard makes the most sense, as he was underutilized in Tampa Bay anyway. Fantasy coaches would rejoice if he went to New England or any number of places. (Those wondering why he wasn't part of the Gronk deal, well, probably New England correctly figured they could always get him later on, either for a lesser pick than a fourth or if Tampa Bay winds up cutting the guy.)
Doesn't seem like great news for Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, either. We know that Jameis Winston had a great rapport wit those guys. And we know that Tom Brady has a great rapport with Gronk. Seems like they'll see a smaller share of red-zone looks than they did a year ago, when each guy caught 8-9 touchdowns.
For now, we'll take a look at Gronkowski. He's been out of the league for a year, which is a negative in terms of rust or whatnot, but a positive in terms of physical health. We're all rusty right now, so it's not the worst time to be coming back from a year off.
The question is -- and I'm assuming here that Howard will be gone -- what is Gronkowski's value? Will he be a top-10 tight end?
Based even on just the end of his tenure in New England, there seems to be a pretty good chance.
In back-to-back seasons in 2014 and 2015, Gronk played 15 games, and went over 1,100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in both. Injuries took their toll on him over most of the next three seasons. From 2016 to 2018, he missed 13 games and played hurt in some others. But on a per-game basis, he was still better than any other tight end over those three years than Travis Kelce.
| TIGHT END PER GAME STATS, 2016-2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | No | Yds | TD | FPG |
| Travis Kelce | 47 | 5.8 | 74.3 | .48 | 10.3 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 33 | 4.2 | 69.5 | .43 | 9.6 |
| Zach Ertz | 43 | 6.2 | 64.6 | .47 | 9.3 |
| George Kittle | 31 | 4.2 | 61.4 | .24 | 7.6 |
| Evan Engram | 26 | 4.2 | 51.3 | .36 | 7.3 |
| Delanie Walker | 32 | 4.5 | 52.2 | .34 | 7.3 |
| Eric Ebron | 45 | 4.0 | 45.1 | .44 | 7.2 |
| O.J. Howard | 24 | 2.5 | 41.5 | .46 | 6.9 |
| Jimmy Graham | 47 | 3.7 | 44.0 | .39 | 6.7 |
| Cameron Brate | 35 | 3.2 | 38.1 | .49 | 6.7 |
| Jordan Reed | 31 | 4.7 | 46.9 | .32 | 6.6 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 48 | 4.3 | 41.8 | .40 | 6.6 |
| Greg Olsen | 32 | 3.9 | 48.6 | .26 | 6.4 |
| Hunter Henry | 29 | 2.8 | 36.4 | .41 | 6.1 |
| Jared Cook | 42 | 3.6 | 46.7 | .21 | 6.0 |
| Jack Doyle | 37 | 4.5 | 41.1 | .30 | 5.9 |
| Martellus Bennett | 25 | 3.4 | 39.9 | .28 | 5.7 |
| Coby Fleener | 20 | 3.1 | 38.1 | .30 | 5.6 |
| Jason Witten | 32 | 4.1 | 38.5 | .25 | 5.4 |
| Trey Burton | 33 | 3.0 | 30.6 | .31 | 4.9 |
| Austin Hooper | 38 | 3.4 | 33.2 | .25 | 4.8 |
| Vernon Davis | 28 | 2.5 | 33.9 | .23 | 4.7 |
| Julius Thomas | 23 | 3.1 | 29.1 | .30 | 4.7 |
| David Njoku | 32 | 2.8 | 32.0 | .25 | 4.7 |
| Vance McDonald | 37 | 2.4 | 32.1 | .24 | 4.7 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 20 | 3.4 | 34.3 | .20 | 4.6 |
| Antonio Gates | 46 | 2.4 | 26.0 | .28 | 4.3 |
| Charles Clay | 41 | 3.1 | 31.6 | .15 | 4.0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 32 | 3.0 | 28.8 | .19 | 4.0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 20 | 3.2 | 24.6 | .25 | 4.0 |
| Ed Dickson | 20 | 1.9 | 27.1 | .20 | 3.9 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 25 | 2.7 | 26.9 | .16 | 3.7 |
| Garrett Celek | 32 | 1.6 | 21.4 | .22 | 3.5 |
| Jesse James | 48 | 2.3 | 23.6 | .17 | 3.4 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 26 | 1.7 | 18.7 | .24 | 3.3 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 30 | 2.3 | 23.8 | .13 | 3.2 |
| Ryan Griffin | 37 | 2.4 | 24.5 | .09 | 3.0 |
| Gerald Everett | 32 | 1.5 | 18.1 | .17 | 2.8 |
| Dion Sims | 26 | 1.5 | 16.0 | .19 | 2.8 |
| Rhett Ellison | 20 | 1.9 | 20.5 | .12 | 2.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | 32 | 1.5 | 18.3 | .09 | 2.4 |
| Lance Kendricks | 41 | 2.0 | 19.0 | .07 | 2.3 |
| Levine Toilolo | 47 | 1.0 | 13.8 | .11 | 2.0 |
| Virgil Green | 44 | 1.3 | 14.5 | .07 | 1.9 |
| Josh Hill | 41 | 1.1 | 11.2 | .07 | 1.6 |
| Maxx Williams | 24 | 1.3 | 9.9 | .08 | 1.5 |
| Nick Boyle | 31 | 1.6 | 13.4 | .01 | 1.4 |
| Lee Smith | 20 | .7 | 5.3 | .00 | .5 |
Table shows tight ends who started at least 20 games in those three seasons. Note that both Howard and Brate also show up in the top 10.
There are some ifs here. Will Howard or Brate be gone? Will Gronkowski stay healthy? Will he change his mind about playing a few months from now, leaving the Patriots to cackle gleefully about their fourth-round pick?
If you're drafting in the next few days, I don't know if you can take the risk of drafting Gronkowski where a fully healthy, full-time Gronk should be selected. But given his considerable upside if he is a healthy starter, you probably need to select him like a top-10 player at his position. Decent chance he'll wind up there.
--Andy Richardson