So Leonard Fournette is probably done in Jacksonville. Once a guy is put on the trade block, he's probably either going to be dealt or released. What does his future likely hold?
Fournette was a full-time, three-down back in Jacksonville, so some are thinking or hoping he'll wind up with that kind of workload elsewhere, fantasizing about him joining Bruce Arians and Tom Brady in Tampa Bay or something. Fournette's a big back who caught 76 passes last year, so he can handle the workload.
But while Fournette was a busy receiver, he wasn't a particularly dynamic one. He averaged a modest 6.9 yards per reception, better than just a handful of other starting running backs. He also dropped 6 of his catchable targets; below-average at the position in that regard. James White he is not. (White dropped just 2 balls on a similar number of targets.)
The other day somebody asked if Fournette might fit best as a short-yardage back. He's 6 feet and 228 pounds. I knew he'd scored only 3 TDs last year, so I thought he might have been ineffective in such situations. But in fact, he's been pretty good in this regard.
Fournette's been in the league three years, and carried the ball 44 times in situations where a critical yard is needed to either pick up a first down (3rd and 1 or 4th and 1) or get in the end zone. He's converted 31 of those chances, which is slightly over 70 percent. Over the past three seasons, only six running backs have been better (minimum 20 attempts).
| "AND 1" RUSHING, 2017-2019 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 26 | 76.9% |
| Chris Carson | 43 | 59 | 72.9% |
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 22 | 72.7% |
| Mark Ingram | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| Latavius Murray | 20 | 28 | 71.4% |
| Kenyan Drake | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| Leonard Fournette | 31 | 44 | 70.5% |
| James Conner | 18 | 26 | 69.2% |
| Todd Gurley | 42 | 62 | 67.7% |
| Jordan Howard | 25 | 37 | 67.6% |
| David Johnson | 18 | 27 | 66.7% |
| Peyton Barber | 18 | 27 | 66.7% |
| Joe Mixon | 29 | 44 | 65.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 26 | 65.4% |
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 26 | 65.4% |
| LeSean McCoy | 15 | 23 | 65.2% |
| Jamaal Williams | 18 | 28 | 64.3% |
| Melvin Gordon | 30 | 48 | 62.5% |
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 28 | 60.7% |
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 25 | 60.0% |
| Carlos Hyde | 29 | 49 | 59.2% |
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 24 | 58.3% |
| Sony Michel | 22 | 39 | 56.4% |
| Marlon Mack | 18 | 32 | 56.3% |
| Tevin Coleman | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
| Nick Chubb | 13 | 27 | 48.1% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 10 | 21 | 47.6% |
| Frank Gore | 14 | 30 | 46.7% |
Nobody (I think) will look at Fournette's 76 catches last year and say, he can be our passing downs back. But maybe they'll look at his size and effectiveness in short-yardage and say, we can pair him with a smaller back and give him the chances near the end zone or make him a late-game hammer. I think that's his best chance for relevance.
Jaguars will probably wind up moving him for a fourth- or fifth-round pick during or shortly after the draft...or maybe even releasing him rather than paying him nearly $5 million this season. That's my guess right now, anyway.
--Andy Richardson