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Factoid

Gardner Minshew

Is 2nd-year quarterback a fantasy sleeper?

The Jaguars say they’re happy with Gardner Minshew – that’s he’s going to be their starting quarterback. Whether they still feel that way when they’re on the clock with the 9th pick on Thursday remains to be seen. But I have looked at Minshew, and I like the way things are shaping up for him.

He played pretty well as a rookie. He went 6-6 as starter, with 18 TDs and only 4 interceptions in those games. He was surprisingly nimble as a scrambler, buying time to make throws. And he finished with a 91.2 passer rating – higher than any of the quarterbacks selected in the first round.

He’s also got Jay Gruden coming in to be his offensive coordinator, and Gruden has had some success putting together offenses. Not so much in 2018, with the failed Alex Smith experiment, but earlier in his career. When Gruden was an offensive coordinator in Cincinnati, he got 33 TDs out of Andy Dalton one year. He got three good seasons out of Kirk Cousins.

At the start of last year, Case Keenum had 300-yard games against the Eagles and Bears. Gruden tends to favor the pass.

Put it this way. Over the last nine years, starting quarterbacks have averaged about 20.0 points per game (using standard fantasy scoring). Gruden has put 132 quarterbacks onto the field for NFL games. Exactly half of those guys have put up above-average fantasy numbers.

I’m not drafting Minshew to be my starter, and I’m not hoping to get him as my backup. But to me, in a typical 12-team league, it makes sense that he should be a backup on one of the 12 teams.

JAY GRUDEN'S STARTING QUARTERBACKS
StarterYearOppScorePassTDRunTDRPts
Dalton2011@CLEW 27-17811008.1
Dalton2011@DENL 22-2433223024.9
Dalton2011SFOL 8-131570508.4
Dalton2011BUFW 23-20298112126.1
Dalton2011@JAXW 30-2017920017.0
Dalton2011INDW 27-172641-1017.1
Dalton2011@SEAW 34-1216823016.7
Dalton2011@TENW 24-1721734023.3
Dalton2011PITL 17-2417020016.5
Dalton2011@BALL 24-31373132025.9
Dalton2011CLEW 23-20270123019.8
Dalton2011@PITL 7-3513516011.4
Dalton2011HOUL 19-2018912013.7
Dalton2011@STLW 20-131790-208.8
Dalton2011ARIW 23-16154248020.5
Dalton2011BALL 16-24232017013.3
Dalton2012@BALL 13-44221011012.2
Dalton2012CLEW 34-2731834028.3
Dalton2012@WASW 38-31328316030.0
Dalton2012@JAXW 27-1024425126.7
Dalton2012MIAL 13-17234121017.8
Dalton2012@CLEL 24-3438135031.6
Dalton2012PITL 17-241051-109.2
Dalton2012DENL 23-31299116020.6
Dalton2012NYGW 31-131994-2025.8
Dalton2012@KANW 28-6230213126.8
Dalton2012OAKW 34-1021035023.0
Dalton2012@SDGW 20-1321115121.1
Dalton2012DALL 19-2020610014.3
Dalton2012@PHIW 34-13127118118.2
Dalton2012@PITW 13-1027800013.9
Dalton2012BALW 23-17781408.3
Dalton2013@CHIL 21-2428222022.3
Dalton2013PITW 20-10280110019.0
Dalton2013GNBW 34-3023523020.1
Dalton2013@CLEL 6-17206013011.6
Dalton2013NWEW 13-6212025013.1
Dalton2013@BUFW 27-24337317030.6
Dalton2013@DETW 27-2437236031.2
Dalton2013NYJW 49-932550036.3
Dalton2013@MIAL 20-22338012018.1
Dalton2013@BALL 17-20274222023.9
Dalton2013CLEW 41-209330016.7
Dalton2013@SDGW 17-1019019014.4
Dalton2013INDW 42-28275311132.9
Dalton2013@PITL 20-30230220021.5
Dalton2013MINW 42-14363410035.2
Dalton2013BALW 34-17281223130.4
Griffin2014@HOUL 6-1726702013.6
Griffin2014JAXW 41-103802204.1
Cousins2014@PHIL 34-3742735033.9
Cousins2014NYGL 14-45257112018.1
Cousins2014SEAL 17-2728324022.6
Cousins2014@ARIL 20-3035420025.7
Cousins2014TENW 19-171390007.0
McCoy2014@DALW 20-17299016122.6
Griffin2014@MINL 26-29251124019.0
Griffin2014TAML 7-27207141018.5
Griffin2014@SFOL 13-1710601106.4
McCoy2014@INDL 27-49392312032.8
McCoy2014STLL 0-24199011011.1
McCoy2014@NYGL 13-243902404.4
Griffin2014PHIW 27-24220011012.1
Griffin2014DALL 17-44336119128.7
Cousins2015MIAL 10-171961-1013.7
Cousins2015STLW 24-1020310014.2
Cousins2015@NYGL 21-3231610019.8
Cousins2015PHIW 23-2029011124.6
Cousins2015@ATLL 19-2521911015.1
Cousins2015@NYJL 20-3419611013.9
Cousins2015TAMW 31-30317315135.4
Cousins2015@NWEL 10-2721710014.9
Cousins2015NORW 47-1432440032.2
Cousins2015@CARL 16-4420714014.8
Cousins2015NYGW 20-1430211125.2
Cousins2015DALL 16-1921916015.6
Cousins2015@CHIW 24-21300113126.3
Cousins2015BUFW 35-25319411139.1
Cousins2015@PHIW 38-243654-4033.9
Cousins2015@DALW 34-2317630020.8
Cousins2016PITL 16-3832908017.3
Cousins2016DALL 23-27364120024.2
Cousins2016@NYGW 29-272962-5022.3
Cousins2016CLEW 31-2018330021.2
Cousins2016@BALW 16-102601-1016.9
Cousins2016PHIW 27-2026328022.0
Cousins2016@DETL 17-20301115126.6
Cousins2016@CINT 27-274582-1030.8
Cousins2016MINW 26-202622-1021.0
Cousins2016GNBW 42-2437534031.2
Cousins2016@DALL 26-3144932034.7
Cousins2016@ARIL 23-3127110123.6
Cousins2016@PHIW 27-2223426020.3
Cousins2016CARL 15-26315011016.9
Cousins2016@CHIW 41-21270130232.5
Cousins2016NYGL 10-1928710018.4
Cousins2017PHIL 17-30240130019.0
Cousins2017@LARW 27-2017917013.7
Cousins2017OAKW 27-1036532030.5
Cousins2017@KANL 20-29220238022.8
Cousins2017SFOW 26-24330226133.1
Cousins2017@PHIL 24-34303318029.0
Cousins2017DALL 19-3326310017.2
Cousins2017@SEAW 17-1424704012.8
Cousins2017MINL 30-3832715232.9
Cousins2017@NORL 31-34322311029.2
Cousins2017NYGW 20-1024224020.5
Cousins2017@DALL 14-3825126021.2
Cousins2017@LACL 13-3015118012.4
Cousins2017ARIW 20-1519620017.8
Cousins2017DENW 27-1129938027.8
Cousins2017@NYGL 10-18158012115.1
A.Smith2018@ARIW 24-6255214022.2
A.Smith2018INDL 9-21292014016.0
A.Smith2018GNBW 31-17220220021.0
A.Smith2018@NORL 19-4327507120.5
A.Smith2018CARW 23-17163213017.5
A.Smith2018DALW 20-17178116014.5
A.Smith2018@NYGW 20-13178113014.2
A.Smith2018ATLL 14-38306122021.5
A.Smith2018@TAMW 16-3178116014.5
A.Smith2018HOUL 21-23135033010.1
McCoy2018@DALL 23-31268228024.2
McCoy2018@PHIL 13-28500002.5
Sanchez2018NYGL 16-40380001.9
J.Johnson2018@JAXW 16-13151149016.5
J.Johnson2018@TENL 16-25153122013.9
J.Johnson2018PHIL 0-24910405.0
Keenum2019@PHIL 27-3238030031.0
Keenum2019DALL 21-312212-1019.0
Keenum2019CHIL 15-3133223024.9
Keenum2019@NYGL 3-24370001.9

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index