Is Dawson Knox on the eve of a breakout season? He moved into the starting lineup as the Bills' main tight end as a rookie, and now it's year 2 for him and year 3 for his quarterback -- offense should be headed for an uptick. But with Knox specifically, there's good and bad.
He's got John Brown on his side, at least. Brown says he think this will be a breakout season for the youngster. So there's that.
On the one hand, Knox showed some intriguing ability to get downfield and make plays. His 28 receptions went for 388 yards -- nearly 14 yards per catch. Among tight ends who caught at least 20 balls, that was one of the best averages in the league; only Jared Cook and another athletic rookie, Noah Fant, were better last year.
| TIGHT END YARDS PER CATCH, 2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | 20+ | Pct |
| Jared Cook | 43 | 705 | 16.4 | 9 | 15 | 34.9% |
| Noah Fant | 40 | 562 | 14.0 | 3 | 10 | 25.0% |
| Dawson Knox | 28 | 388 | 13.9 | 2 | 7 | 25.0% |
| O.J. Howard | 34 | 459 | 13.5 | 1 | 8 | 23.5% |
| Mark Andrews | 64 | 852 | 13.3 | 10 | 16 | 25.0% |
| Darren Waller | 90 | 1145 | 12.7 | 3 | 14 | 15.6% |
| Travis Kelce | 97 | 1229 | 12.7 | 5 | 13 | 13.4% |
| Jonnu Smith | 35 | 439 | 12.5 | 3 | 8 | 22.9% |
| George Kittle | 85 | 1053 | 12.4 | 5 | 16 | 18.8% |
| Eric Ebron | 31 | 375 | 12.1 | 3 | 4 | 12.9% |
| Hunter Henry | 55 | 652 | 11.9 | 5 | 8 | 14.5% |
| Blake Jarwin | 31 | 365 | 11.8 | 3 | 8 | 25.8% |
| Jimmy Graham | 38 | 447 | 11.8 | 3 | 7 | 18.4% |
| Hayden Hurst | 30 | 349 | 11.6 | 2 | 4 | 13.3% |
| Jordan Akins | 36 | 418 | 11.6 | 2 | 4 | 11.1% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 32 | 367 | 11.5 | 2 | 6 | 18.8% |
| Greg Olsen | 52 | 597 | 11.5 | 2 | 6 | 11.5% |
| Will Dissly | 23 | 262 | 11.4 | 4 | 3 | 13.0% |
| Mike Gesicki | 51 | 570 | 11.2 | 5 | 7 | 13.7% |
| Gerald Everett | 37 | 408 | 11.0 | 2 | 6 | 16.2% |
| Tyler Higbee | 69 | 734 | 10.6 | 3 | 11 | 15.9% |
| Evan Engram | 44 | 467 | 10.6 | 3 | 4 | 9.1% |
| Dallas Goedert | 58 | 607 | 10.5 | 5 | 8 | 13.8% |
| Austin Hooper | 75 | 787 | 10.5 | 6 | 8 | 10.7% |
| Zach Ertz | 88 | 916 | 10.4 | 6 | 12 | 13.6% |
| Nick Boyle | 31 | 321 | 10.4 | 2 | 4 | 12.9% |
| Jack Doyle | 43 | 448 | 10.4 | 4 | 4 | 9.3% |
| Delanie Walker | 21 | 215 | 10.2 | 2 | 1 | 4.8% |
| Tyler Eifert | 43 | 436 | 10.1 | 3 | 4 | 9.3% |
| Darren Fells | 34 | 341 | 10.0 | 7 | 2 | 5.9% |
| Ryan Griffin | 34 | 320 | 9.4 | 5 | 4 | 11.8% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 39 | 367 | 9.4 | 6 | 3 | 7.7% |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 26 | 241 | 9.3 | 1 | 2 | 7.7% |
| Josh Hill | 25 | 226 | 9.0 | 3 | 4 | 16.0% |
| C.J. Uzomah | 27 | 242 | 9.0 | 2 | 2 | 7.4% |
| Irv Smith | 36 | 311 | 8.6 | 2 | 5 | 13.9% |
| Kaden Smith | 31 | 268 | 8.6 | 3 | 3 | 9.7% |
| Cameron Brate | 36 | 311 | 8.6 | 4 | 1 | 2.8% |
| Jacob Hollister | 41 | 349 | 8.5 | 3 | 3 | 7.3% |
| Jason Witten | 63 | 529 | 8.4 | 4 | 2 | 3.2% |
| Foster Moreau | 21 | 174 | 8.3 | 5 | 1 | 4.8% |
| Vance McDonald | 38 | 273 | 7.2 | 3 | 2 | 5.3% |
A quarter of his catches went for at least 20 yards; that was also one of the best rates in the league. Only Cook and Blake Jarwin were better. An exciting potential to tap into.
But that's the good news. The bad news is that when Knox wasn't getting downfield for big plays, he was dropping lots of catchable balls. He dropped 10 of 38 catchable targets -- worst rate in the league. That's not the kind of shortcoming that will lead to an expanded role.
| DROPPED PASSES, ALL, 2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Rec | Dr | Pct | Tgt |
| TE | Dawson Knox | 28 | 10 | 26.3% | 38 |
| WR | Jarius Wright | 28 | 8 | 22.2% | 36 |
| WR | John Ross | 28 | 8 | 22.2% | 36 |
| WR | Ted Ginn | 30 | 7 | 18.9% | 37 |
| RB | Todd Gurley | 31 | 7 | 18.4% | 38 |
| RB | Phillip Lindsay | 35 | 6 | 14.6% | 41 |
| WR | Michael Gallup | 66 | 11 | 14.3% | 77 |
| TE | Eric Ebron | 31 | 5 | 13.9% | 36 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 57 | 9 | 13.6% | 66 |
| WR | Chris Conley | 47 | 7 | 13.0% | 54 |
| WR | Geronimo Allison | 34 | 5 | 12.8% | 39 |
| TE | O.J. Howard | 34 | 5 | 12.8% | 39 |
| WR | Randall Cobb | 55 | 8 | 12.7% | 63 |
| WR | Demaryius Thomas | 36 | 5 | 12.2% | 41 |
| RB | Dalvin Cook | 53 | 7 | 11.7% | 60 |
| WR | Julian Edelman | 100 | 13 | 11.5% | 113 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | 54 | 7 | 11.5% | 61 |
| TE | Noah Fant | 40 | 5 | 11.1% | 45 |
| WR | Preston Williams | 32 | 4 | 11.1% | 36 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | 58 | 7 | 10.8% | 65 |
| WR | Tyrell Williams | 42 | 5 | 10.6% | 47 |
| WR | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 42 | 5 | 10.6% | 47 |
| WR | Steven Sims | 34 | 4 | 10.5% | 38 |
| TE | Tyler Eifert | 43 | 5 | 10.4% | 48 |
| WR | Albert Wilson | 43 | 5 | 10.4% | 48 |
| RB | Tarik Cohen | 79 | 9 | 10.2% | 88 |
| WR | James Washington | 44 | 5 | 10.2% | 49 |
| RB | Nick Chubb | 36 | 4 | 10.0% | 40 |
| TE | Jordan Akins | 36 | 4 | 10.0% | 40 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 64 | 7 | 9.9% | 71 |
| RB | Jaylen Samuels | 47 | 5 | 9.6% | 52 |
| WR | Mike Evans | 67 | 7 | 9.5% | 74 |
| WR | Jamison Crowder | 78 | 8 | 9.3% | 86 |
| WR | Nelson Agholor | 39 | 4 | 9.3% | 43 |
| WR | Will Fuller | 49 | 5 | 9.3% | 54 |
| WR | Mohamed Sanu | 59 | 6 | 9.2% | 65 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | 59 | 6 | 9.2% | 65 |
| TE | Jason Witten | 63 | 6 | 8.7% | 69 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | 63 | 6 | 8.7% | 69 |
| RB | Melvin Gordon | 42 | 4 | 8.7% | 46 |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | 42 | 4 | 8.7% | 46 |
| WR | Odell Beckham | 74 | 7 | 8.6% | 81 |
| TE | Jared Cook | 43 | 4 | 8.5% | 47 |
| WR | Corey Davis | 43 | 4 | 8.5% | 47 |
| WR | Kenny Golladay | 65 | 6 | 8.5% | 71 |
| WR | Cole Beasley | 67 | 6 | 8.2% | 73 |
| TE | Darren Fells | 34 | 3 | 8.1% | 37 |
| RB | Latavius Murray | 34 | 3 | 8.1% | 37 |
I'm thinking about Knox specifically because I have him in a dynasty league, and have been getting some offers. These are the deals that can make or break dynasty teams -- trading guys for cheap before they break out and gnashing your teeth when they do, or before their value disappears and getting something for nothing.
One thing I note from the drop table is there are a decent number of tight ends on the list, including some who are highly regarded in fantasy, and some who have stuck around the league for years. Eric Ebron has never really been able to get over his issues, but he's been a good fantasy tight end some years and will be starting for Pittsburgh this year. Fant shows up unfavorably on this list, as does Tyler Eifert. O.J. Howard too, helping to explain Bruce Arians' frustration with him.
Too early to say for sure which way Knox will go, but it kind of looks like if Buffalo wants to keep his downfield ability in play, they might need to just live with the drops. Because there seems to be a good chance they'll continue to dog him this season.
--Andy Richardson