The NFL released its schedule last night. Moreso than in any other year, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. There's a greater than usual chance that things may need to change.
Will Kansas City and Houston really be able to have a stadium full of people on September 10th? Or will testing have reached the level of simplicity that teams and officials can all be tested so there can be empty-stadium games? No one knows, and I'm not going to dwell on it here.
I am going to note that if you look too closely at early-season and late-season schedules, keep in mind they might change. It's entirely possible that Week 1 games get moved to the end of the year, thereby becoming Week 18 games. Week 2 games might be scattered throughout the season (all those matchups feature teams with the same bye week)
With that in mind, and also acknowledging that we already knew each team's 16 opponents months ago, so it's really just the order we have now, here are my thoughts on the NFL schedule, as it pertains to fantasy football. These are based on the hope that things actually proceed in the way they've been drawn up.
Bye weeks. There are six teams on byes in Week 8, and six teams on byes in Week 11. Those are the weeks to be focusing on if you're concerned about having enough players to field starting lineups. If you're in a best-ball league and your quarterbacks are Deshaun Watson and Ben Roethlisberger, add another one if you want to have a quarterback that week. Just not Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Drew Lock or Dwayne Haskins -- hmm, three or four of the top fantasy quarterbacks are off that week.
FFPC Leagues. Fantasy Football Player Championship leagues have their last week of the regular season in Week 11. There's a two-week league playoffs, followed by a three-week championship round for qualifiers. Week 13 is the Super Bowl for leagues. So with Carolina and Tampa Bay scheduled to be off that week, maybe it crosses your mind to break ties the other way for top selections like Christian McCaffrey, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Maybe. I can't really get behind dropping McCaffrey behind Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott. I just can't. But some will, and that can't be entirely scoffed at. Two years ago a guy who drafted Patrick Mahomes and Todd Gurley dominated my league. They had their byes in Week 12, and he got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. It can't be dismissed.
Philip Rivers. How the Colts will do with their new quarterback is one of the interesting questions about the season. The schedule looks really favorable for them early on. The Colts open in Jacksonville, then come home to face the Vikings and Jets. Then they're on the road against the Bears and Browns, home versus the Bengals, and at Detroit. They're not going to start out 7-0, but will they be underdogs in any of those games? Probably not. Nice first-half schedule for Frank Reich's crew.
Titans. Because they're playing a lot of the same teams, the Titans' also have a seemingly favorable schedule, particularly in the first half. They open in Denver, but then play four of their next five at home: Jaguars, Steelers, Bills, Texans, with a road game at Minnesota, then a game at Cincinnati and a home game against the Bears. Not all of those games are easy, but a lot of the tough teams are at least at home. I'm thinking the Colts and Titans will both be 6-2 or 7-1 (there's a bye for each in there) ahead of a Week 10 Thursday night game.
Cowboys. Dallas also has a nice first-half schedule. Four of their firs six are at home, and not against great defenses: Falcons, Browns, Giants and Cardinals. The road games are against the Rams (a rebuilt defense with Wade Phillips and a lot of starters gone) and Seattle. Second half is tougher (Ravens, 49ers, both Eagles games).
Broncos. Denver's early-season schedule skews the other way. You may recall they started out poorly last year (2-6) before finishing strong (5-3). It's a rough first half for Drew Lock and company, with the Titans, Steelers, Bucs, Patriots and Kansas City in their first seven games. Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Kansas City are home, at least, but not many favorable matchups in the season's first half.
Packers. Fantasy-wise, Green Bay's first-half schedule looks OK -- they'll be playing some shootouts. Wins-wise, it's a tougher row to hoe. Five of their first eight are on the road, against the Vikings, Saints, 49ers, Texans and Buccaneers. Their sixth road game (at Indianapolis) is no picnic either. Green Bay isn't going 13-3 this year. At least the closing stretch is more friendly, with home games against the Jaguars, Panthers and Bears.
Falcons. Matt Ryan and Atlanta had a lot of favorable early matchups last year. This year, they've got a good schedule (fantasy-wise) late. Their last seven feature both Saints games, both Bucs games, and three AFC West opponents: Raiders, Chargers, Kansas City. I think most of those games will be high-scoring, so I'm gung ho on Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley (if we're confident in his health) and Hayden Hurst.
Cardinals. Arizona opens at San Francisco, which is not a great situation. But they might be favored in their next four: Washington, Detroit, Carolina and the Jets. It's a tough NFC West division, so getting the Cardinals into the playoffs is tough. Are they really likely to go better than 1-3 against the Seahawks and 49ers? Rams aren't easy either. But I like Kyler Murray getting off to a fast start.
49ers. Speaking of fast starts. San Francisco's first seven games: Cardinals at home, Jets and Giants on the road, Eagles, Dolphins and Rams at home, and Patriots on the road. Maybe a Super Bowl hangover has them sleepwalking early on, but a 7-0 start looks plausible. Second half is tougher, but their offense should still be fine in a three-game stretch against the Seahawks, Packers and Saints.
Hopefully, everything happens according to plan.