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Andy Richardson

Rookie Draft Recap

Run on backs, followed by a run on receivers

So my dynasty league held its annual rookie draft over the weekend. We always do it one week after the actual draft. Usually there have been some minicamps taking place to help with initial evaluations and team usage, but this year we've only got the actual draft and what teams said the next day. If we held our draft a month from now, it would probably have been the same.

It's a very trade-happy time -- in all, 21 of 36 picks in this three-round draft had been traded at least once, including plenty of trades up and down during the draft itself. Yes, it's pretty awesome.

Here's how it went down. This is a 12-team, PPR scoring, 1 quarterback league. Tight ends get 1.5 points per reception. My picks are in italics.

1.1. Jonathan Taylor, Colts
1.2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City

These will be the top 2 picks in probably 90 percent of drafts. CEH was the first running back drafted and goes to the best team. Taylor was drafted 3rd at the position but was college's biggest producer, is big and talented (a sub-4.40 40), and will be running behind a great line. Neither player will be handed the starting job, but where they were selected strongly suggests they'll be expected to grab it sooner rather than later.

1.3. J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
1.4. D'Andre Swift, Lions
1.5. Cam Akers, Rams

I considered all three of these players before going with the one I believe to be the most talented and in the best long-term situation. Swift is probably the chalk pick (2nd running back selected in the actual draft) but the Lions haven't had a good running game in 20 years and I'm not sure the decision-makers who took Swift will be in place a year from now; they could also use a committee. Akers was a productive college receiver and is the likeliest Week 1 starter, but I don't entirely trust the evaluators, since they traded up to take Darrell Henderson just a year ago.

But these are nitpicks; I think these players should be the 3-4-5 selections, and they're similar in terms of talent and long-term potential. But Dobbins got the edge for me as a tough guy who played through minor injuries and goes to the league's best running team that will benefit from the league's best running quarterback and a stable coaching staff. He's my guy, though I honestly like all three of them.

1.6. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
1.7. Jerry Jeudy, Broncos

I like Jeudy better as a prospect: Alabama offense background (a seeming plus for Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones and Amari Cooper), great route-running, and should be able to start fairly quickly in an offense where all the youngsters develop together (just hoping Drew Lock is the real deal and John Elway's not looking for a new quarterback a year from now). Lamb is preferred by some, certainly, but there's only one football and he'll be fighting with two excellent receivers for targets in Dallas. Both look great.

1.8. Justin Jefferson, Vikings
1.9. Michael Pittman, Colts
1.10. Henry Ruggs, Raiders
1.11. Jalen Reagor, Eagles
1.12. Tee Higgins, Bengals
2.1. Denzel Mims, Jets

Just noticing now that after 5 running backs to open the draft, the next eight picks are all wide receivers. Lots to unpack here, but start with the fact that four of these above wideouts were drafted within a dozen picks of each other in the actual draft. Don't get hung up on, Ooh, Reagor was a 1st-rounder and Pittman and Higgns were 2nd-rounders! We're talking a dozen picks; NFL teams evaluated these guys similarly.

Ruggs, drafted first in the NFL, is lightning fast, but those guys can be hit or miss (John Ross) and the Raiders have a pair of checkdown types at quarterback. I favored Pittman (Reagor was my second choice) due to NFL bloodlines -- I think that stuff matters in helping a youngster's transition to the NFL level -- and faith in Frank Reich and the Colts offense. Yes they took Parris Campbell last year, who I'm not writing off, but Pittman should be top 3 sooner rather than later and probably more talented than Campbell.

Reagor might be the No. 1 in Philly, but their judgment drafting wide receivers has looked shaky in recent years. Analyzing Jefferson pre-draft I liked what I saw but he was LSU's 2nd-best wide receiver, I think, and benefited from great passing game talent around him. Minnesota seems it would prefer to run the ball. Higgins might well be the best of this group and emerge as the No. 1 in Cincinnati.

Let's be plain: it's a really talented wideout class. I think a lot of these guys are going to figure prominently in fantasy drafts for the next 5-7 years. Invariably some will bust due to injuries or picking up the NFL game or poor quarterbacking, but I don't see a lot of warts on these guys.

On Mims, it's interesting/concerning that he was just the 13th NFL wideout drafted, not the preferred choice of any of the dozen teams who took one prior to him. I think the correct fantasy pick would have been Brandon Aiyuk, who was curiously underrated in this draft.

2.2. KeShawn Vaughn, Bucs
2.3. Joe Burrow, Bengals
2.4. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
2.5. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

Vaughn won't go the same place in any two drafts. Is he a three-down back in a Tom Brady-led offense? Or just a third-round rookie who there's no way he'll be used to protect a 43-year-old quarterback in passing situations? I've seen him drafted as early as 1.7 or 1.8. I prefer to focus on the talent of the player over the perceived situation in dynasty, and Vaughn was taken about a round later than the top 5 running backs. I'm not confident he'll have a big role.

As for the quarterbacks, this is about where the top ones tend to go -- the point in the draft where more questions creep in at running back and wide receiver. Yes, it's great to have a young franchise quarterback in dynasty. But most fantasy teams already have at least one solid quarterback, being that there are 32 NFL teams and only 12 fantasy teams. You don't need to fall all over yourself to select Burrow or Tua. Aiyuk should have been drafted earlier.

2.6. Antonio Gibson, Washington
2.7. Zack Moss, Bills
2.8. Devin Asiasi, Patriots
2.9. Laviska Shenault, Jaguars
2.10. Justin Herbert, Chargers
2.11. AJ Dillon, Packers

Grouping these guys in this way because when I took Moss, my second choice was Dillon. They're the running backs who should be solid No. 2 complements for their teams right away, starting if injuries strike (and they always do) or if contract issues arise (Green Bay not wanting to pay Aaron Jones). For me these were the last two interesting running backs in the draft. Gibson and Shenault are both guys who played running back and wide receiver and might do either in the NFL. Washington has about 10 different running backs so wide receiver seems more likely, but we'll see. While such players are fascinating, they're also risky -- Denard Robinson, anyone? Sometimes guys with position versatility never settle in anywhere. It's tough enough learning one NFL position without having to learn two.

Asiasi as the first tight end was a surprise. Cole Kmet (who I selected with my next pick) was the consensus, and he was drafted almost 50 picks earlier in the actual draft. But New England took a pair of third-rounders at the position and the last time they used two picks in the first four rounds on tight ends those guys were named Gronkowski and Hernandez. Considerable upside with Asiasi, who could start and play close to full-time fairly quickly, but also risk (they took Dalton Keene 10 picks later).

2.12. Chase Claypool, Steelers
3.1. KJ Hamler, Broncos
3.2. Cole Kmet, Bears
3.3. Devin Duvernay, Ravens
3.4. Van Jefferson, Rams
3.5. Antonio Gandy-Golden, Washington

The depth at wide receiver shows through with these attractive third-round picks. Claypool and Hamler will be competing with other unproven youngsters in Pittsburgh and Denver. Duvernay (me and another owner had hoped to get him later in the third, hoping he was under the radar) will probably be Baltimore's 2nd-best wide receiver simply by showing up. Jefferson steps into the Josh Reynolds role in Los Angeles, with Reynolds stepping in for Brandin Cooks (and maybe Jefferson ends up being better). I thought Kmet would go a round earlier; I can only surmise he slipped because the Bears have been so inept with their tight end decisions in recent years. Going back quite a way: this is the team that let Greg Olsen leave town and put up three straight 1,000-yard seasons in Carolina.

3.6. Anthony McFarland, Steelers
3.7. Darrynton Evans, Titans
3.8. Bryan Edwards, Raiders
3.9. Adam Trautman, Saints
3.10. Blake Jarwin, Cowboys
3.11. Lynn Bowden, Raiders
3.12. Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos

Handcuff running backs, more wideouts from the deep class, shot-in-the-dark tight ends. And also Jarwin, who I'd have drafted if I had a late third-round pick; unrostered veterans were fair game in this draft. Some of these guys may well be cut before the start of the season, but you never know -- a year ago I drafted Terry McLaurin at 3.6. McFarland might be Pittsburgh's next starter at running back. Trautman might replace Jared Cook a year from now. The Raiders consider Bowden a running back rather than a wide receiver, so I guess he's a Josh Jacobs handcuff.

That's the draft. Feel free to weigh in and let me know where you think we missed the boat, reached, or got a steal.

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