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Joe Burrow

Can No. 1 overall pick make an immediate impact?

Who’s ready to roll the dice on Joe Burrow? He put up pretty incredible numbers at Louisiana State, and there’s some talent around him – especially at wide receiver. On the downside, the coronavirus pandemic might be making it harder for him to play well early in the season.

If things break right, Cincinnati could have a pretty solid receiving corps. Tyler Boyd can be penciled in as one of the better slot receivers; he’s good. They need A.J. Green to stay healthy and get back to being a difference-maker kind of guy. And it would be nice if Tee Higgins is ready to help out immediately. They’ve got some other wide receivers who could potentially help, including Auden Tate, John Ross and Alex Erickson. Ross has been a disappointment so far, but he’s still fast, and he’s in a contract year.

While Burrow is just a rookie, it seems like more first-year quarterbacks are playing reasonably well right away. Not their best ball, but they’re less likely to fall on their face. Two different rookie quarterbacks last year put up notable stats – Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones.

In the last 10 years, 12 rookie quarterbacks have put up top-20 numbers in their first season. That’s per-game numbers, and I’m looking only at quarterbacks who started at least half of their rookie season.

To me, in a rough sense, it seems like Burrow should be about the 20th to 24th quarterback selected in drafts.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH TOP-20 PER-GAME NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPts/GRk
2011Cam Newton, Car.162531.3144.8827.84
2012Robert Griffin, Was.152131.3354.4724.25
2019Daniel Jones, NYG122512.0023.1724.28
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.162731.4416.3122.910
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.132712.0810.0023.011
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.161951.6331.2520.812
2018Josh Allen, Buff.11182.9155.7322.813
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.162331.2534.2521.913
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.122351.5821.2522.216
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.162531.3813.3821.817
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.162291.4418.3821.217
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.122371.5028.0021.018

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index