In the magazine, we’ve got an Experts Poll, a Mock Draft and a Mock Auction. And as I see those coming together, it’s becoming apparent that most everyone likes Cleveland’s wide receivers a lot more than I do.
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Based on where I’m seeing other people rank them and pick them, I’m confident neither one of them will be on any of my fantasy teams this year.
In the Mock Draft (a 12-team league using PPR scoring) Beckham was the final pick of the third round – 36th overall. Landry went in the middle of the seventh.
In the Experts Poll, Beckham was one of the top 12 wide receivers on 12 of the 20 entries. Only one of the 20 experts didn’t include him in their top 20.
And in the Mock Auction, Beckham and Landry went for $23 and $17 (out of $200 cap) – about twice what I thought they were worth.
For me, ranking Beckham among the top 20 wide receivers was never a consideration. I don’t even have him in my top 30. Talented guy when he’s dialed in and balling, of course, but I think his role will decline rather than increase under the new coaching staff.
When Kevin Stefanski was in Minnesota, everything was about running the ball with Dalvin Cook. The Vikings ranked in the bottom 10 in passing yards. And I think he’s bringing that same kind of offense to Cleveland. Among their first moves in free agency was signing a blocking fullback (Andy Janovich), and they’ve got a new pair of tackles. Lord knows they’re overloaded with talent at tailback, with probably the best tandem in the league – Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
So I think it will be plenty of running for the Browns, with not so many balls for Beckham and Landry.
When Stefanski was running Minnesota’s offense last year, that team’s wide receivers caught the 2nd-fewest balls in the league. And they had a pretty sweet pair there, with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen (though Thielen missed about half the year).
In the chart below, I do see one number that I like. Minnesota’s wide receivers averaged 15.6 yards per catch – 2nd-most in the league. So while the wide receivers on that team weren’t catching many balls, they were at least getting downfield. I’ll take this as evidence that Cleveland’s wide receivers (especially Beckham) should be targeted on more downfield shots this season. Those kind of plays tend to be set up by a successful running game.
| WIDE RECEIVER CATCHES, 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Atlanta | 277 | 3,420 | 12.3 | 16 |
| LA Rams | 249 | 3,218 | 12.9 | 15 |
| Arizona | 238 | 2,593 | 10.9 | 11 |
| Houston | 228 | 2,849 | 12.5 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay | 224 | 3,596 | 16.1 | 26 |
| Dallas | 224 | 3,475 | 15.5 | 20 |
| Miami | 221 | 2,805 | 12.7 | 15 |
| New England | 219 | 2,562 | 11.7 | 16 |
| Jacksonville | 217 | 2,868 | 13.2 | 19 |
| Chicago | 214 | 2,494 | 11.7 | 14 |
| Cincinnati | 213 | 2,756 | 12.9 | 9 |
| NY Giants | 212 | 2,598 | 12.3 | 20 |
| New Orleans | 205 | 2,417 | 11.8 | 16 |
| Detroit | 199 | 2,968 | 14.9 | 22 |
| Seattle | 196 | 2,873 | 14.7 | 20 |
| NY Jets | 193 | 2,413 | 12.5 | 12 |
| Green Bay | 192 | 2,461 | 12.8 | 13 |
| Buffalo | 191 | 2,411 | 12.6 | 14 |
| Carolina | 189 | 2,322 | 12.3 | 10 |
| Cleveland | 185 | 2,629 | 14.2 | 12 |
| Kansas City | 181 | 2,696 | 14.9 | 21 |
| Washington | 179 | 2,075 | 11.6 | 14 |
| LA Chargers | 178 | 2,499 | 14.0 | 8 |
| Tennessee | 171 | 2,571 | 15.0 | 17 |
| Pittsburgh | 169 | 2,166 | 12.8 | 11 |
| Denver | 154 | 2,046 | 13.3 | 9 |
| San Francisco | 152 | 2,122 | 14.0 | 15 |
| Indianapolis | 150 | 1,841 | 12.3 | 15 |
| Philadelphia | 146 | 1,647 | 11.3 | 11 |
| Oakland | 145 | 1,858 | 12.8 | 12 |
| Minnesota | 137 | 2,142 | 15.6 | 16 |
| Baltimore | 115 | 1,419 | 12.3 | 17 |
—Ian Allan