Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Ryan Tannehill

Tennessee consistently hit opponents with deep balls

Ryan Tannehill connected on a bunch of downfield passes last year. He and Matthew Stafford were the only quarterbacks to produce pass plays of 20-plus yards on over 20 percent of their completions. But I don’t expect he’ll be able to keep that up.

It’s hard completing downfield passes, and defenses invariably study the film and make adjustments, making it even harder to continue to execute the same kind of plays.

Consider, for example, the 43 quarterbacks over the last 20 years who have averaged at least 13 yards on pass completions. Those 43 are listed below (along with the three 2019 quarterbacks who did it – Tannehill, Stafford and Jameis Winston).

Only 10 of those 43 (less than a quarter) came back the next season and again ranked in the top 5 in average yards per completion. I’ve got those guys tagged with double dots (••). Only 18 ranked in the top 10 (tagged with single dots).

Almost half (21 of 43) ranked 15th or lower. That includes five who didn’t play much the following year. (On the chart, I’m looking only at quarterbacks who completed at least 100 passes).

Tannehill was pretty remarkable last year. His per-game fantasy production was the 3rd-best in the league, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Winston. But with the kind of offense they run (with everything set up off play action), Tannehill looks like a quarterback who could decline in a hurry. I would be a lot more interested in him as a backup (in a fantasy league) rather than as a No. 1 guy.

QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 13 YARDS PER COMPLETION
YearPlayerAvgRkNext AvgNext Rk
2006Donovan McNabb, Phil.14.71111.4215
2000•• Kurt Warner, St.L.14.59112.881
2018Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B.14.43111.3517
2013Nick Foles, Phil.14.24111.6318
2000•• Trent Green, St.L.14.23212.782
2005•• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.14.20112.554
2011Matt Schaub, Hou.13.93111.4522
2011Carson Palmer, Oak.13.83211.6517
2012Cam Newton, Car.13.82111.5721
2014Brian Hoyer, Cle.13.74111.6313
2011• Eli Manning, NYG13.74312.308
2011Tim Tebow, Den.13.724----
2015Carson Palmer, Ariz.13.66111.6315
2019Ryan Tannehill, Ten.13.641??
2014Kirk Cousins, Was.13.57210.9929
2004• Peyton Manning, Ind.13.56112.298
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.13.54511.5819
2004• Jake Plummer, Den.13.50212.159
2017• Deshaun Watson, Hou.13.48112.079
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.13.442??
2009•• Philip Rivers, S.D.13.42113.192
2011Kevin Kolb, Ariz.13.396----
2004•• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.13.37314.201
2008Jake Delhomme, Car.13.37111.3217
2019Matthew Stafford, Det.13.363??
2012•• Colin Kaepernick, S.F.13.34213.162
2010Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.13.33112.5813
2018•• Patrick Mahomes, K.C.13.31212.644
2009• Donovan McNabb, Phil.13.31212.288
2012Josh Freeman, T.B.13.283----
2000Daunte Culpepper, Min.13.26311.1122
2016• Matt Ryan, Atl.13.25111.978
2002Marc Bulger, St.L.13.23111.4416
2006•• Tony Romo, Dall.13.20212.572
2010Philip Rivers, S.D.13.19212.6312
2013Colin Kaepernick, S.F.13.16211.6616
2002• Patrick Ramsey, Was.13.15212.106
2013•• Aaron Rodgers, G.B.13.14312.854
2013Matt McGloin, Oak.13.114----
2008J.T. O'Sullivan, S.F.13.112----
2011•• Cam Newton, Car.13.07713.821
2013• Russell Wilson, Sea.13.06512.198
2005Jake Delhomme, Car.13.06210.6727
2011Michael Vick, Phil.13.06811.5818
2011Tom Brady, N.E.13.05912.0412
2016Cam Newton, Car.13.00211.3518

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index