Ryan Tannehill connected on a bunch of downfield passes last year. He and Matthew Stafford were the only quarterbacks to produce pass plays of 20-plus yards on over 20 percent of their completions. But I don’t expect he’ll be able to keep that up.
It’s hard completing downfield passes, and defenses invariably study the film and make adjustments, making it even harder to continue to execute the same kind of plays.
Consider, for example, the 43 quarterbacks over the last 20 years who have averaged at least 13 yards on pass completions. Those 43 are listed below (along with the three 2019 quarterbacks who did it – Tannehill, Stafford and Jameis Winston).
Only 10 of those 43 (less than a quarter) came back the next season and again ranked in the top 5 in average yards per completion. I’ve got those guys tagged with double dots (••). Only 18 ranked in the top 10 (tagged with single dots).
Almost half (21 of 43) ranked 15th or lower. That includes five who didn’t play much the following year. (On the chart, I’m looking only at quarterbacks who completed at least 100 passes).
Tannehill was pretty remarkable last year. His per-game fantasy production was the 3rd-best in the league, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Winston. But with the kind of offense they run (with everything set up off play action), Tannehill looks like a quarterback who could decline in a hurry. I would be a lot more interested in him as a backup (in a fantasy league) rather than as a No. 1 guy.
QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 13 YARDS PER COMPLETION | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Avg | Rk | Next Avg | Next Rk |
2006 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 14.71 | 1 | 11.42 | 15 |
2000 | •• Kurt Warner, St.L. | 14.59 | 1 | 12.88 | 1 |
2018 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B. | 14.43 | 1 | 11.35 | 17 |
2013 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 14.24 | 1 | 11.63 | 18 |
2000 | •• Trent Green, St.L. | 14.23 | 2 | 12.78 | 2 |
2005 | •• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 14.20 | 1 | 12.55 | 4 |
2011 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 13.93 | 1 | 11.45 | 22 |
2011 | Carson Palmer, Oak. | 13.83 | 2 | 11.65 | 17 |
2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 13.82 | 1 | 11.57 | 21 |
2014 | Brian Hoyer, Cle. | 13.74 | 1 | 11.63 | 13 |
2011 | • Eli Manning, NYG | 13.74 | 3 | 12.30 | 8 |
2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 13.72 | 4 | -- | -- |
2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 13.66 | 1 | 11.63 | 15 |
2019 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 13.64 | 1 | ? | ? |
2014 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 13.57 | 2 | 10.99 | 29 |
2004 | • Peyton Manning, Ind. | 13.56 | 1 | 12.29 | 8 |
2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 13.54 | 5 | 11.58 | 19 |
2004 | • Jake Plummer, Den. | 13.50 | 2 | 12.15 | 9 |
2017 | • Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 13.48 | 1 | 12.07 | 9 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 13.44 | 2 | ? | ? |
2009 | •• Philip Rivers, S.D. | 13.42 | 1 | 13.19 | 2 |
2011 | Kevin Kolb, Ariz. | 13.39 | 6 | -- | -- |
2004 | •• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13.37 | 3 | 14.20 | 1 |
2008 | Jake Delhomme, Car. | 13.37 | 1 | 11.32 | 17 |
2019 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 13.36 | 3 | ? | ? |
2012 | •• Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 13.34 | 2 | 13.16 | 2 |
2010 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 13.33 | 1 | 12.58 | 13 |
2018 | •• Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 13.31 | 2 | 12.64 | 4 |
2009 | • Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 13.31 | 2 | 12.28 | 8 |
2012 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 13.28 | 3 | -- | -- |
2000 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 13.26 | 3 | 11.11 | 22 |
2016 | • Matt Ryan, Atl. | 13.25 | 1 | 11.97 | 8 |
2002 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 13.23 | 1 | 11.44 | 16 |
2006 | •• Tony Romo, Dall. | 13.20 | 2 | 12.57 | 2 |
2010 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 13.19 | 2 | 12.63 | 12 |
2013 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 13.16 | 2 | 11.66 | 16 |
2002 | • Patrick Ramsey, Was. | 13.15 | 2 | 12.10 | 6 |
2013 | •• Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 13.14 | 3 | 12.85 | 4 |
2013 | Matt McGloin, Oak. | 13.11 | 4 | -- | -- |
2008 | J.T. O'Sullivan, S.F. | 13.11 | 2 | -- | -- |
2011 | •• Cam Newton, Car. | 13.07 | 7 | 13.82 | 1 |
2013 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 13.06 | 5 | 12.19 | 8 |
2005 | Jake Delhomme, Car. | 13.06 | 2 | 10.67 | 27 |
2011 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 13.06 | 8 | 11.58 | 18 |
2011 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 13.05 | 9 | 12.04 | 12 |
2016 | Cam Newton, Car. | 13.00 | 2 | 11.35 | 18 |
—Ian Allan