Deebo Samuel should show up on a lot of Fantasy Index reader teams this year. He appears higher in our rankings than that of most other experts or ADP suggests. He's a talented guy, and should be the No. 1 wideout in San Francisco's offense. Less certain is whether he'll score a lot of touchdowns.
San Francisco will have an excellent ground game, and they'll make heavy use of tight end George Kittle. And the touchdowns might be spread around, because that's been a staple of Kyle Shanahan offenses. As a coordinator or head coach with four different teams over the last decade. he's never had a really productive scorer.
Shanahan ran Washington's offense from 2010 through 2013, then Cleveland for a year, and then Atlanta for two seasons before coming to San Francisco. He had some excellent No. 1 wideouts, part of why we're excited about Samuel. But none of those players ever scored more than 8 touchdowns in a season, and only three of them (in 10 years) scored more than 6.
KYLE SHANAHAN RECEIVERS, 2010-2019 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Tgt | No | Yds | TD |
2015 | Julio Jones | 16 | 203 | 136 | 1871 | 8 |
2012 | Santana Moss | 16 | 62 | 41 | 573 | 8 |
2016 | Taylor Gabriel | 13 | 50 | 35 | 579 | 7 |
2016 | Julio Jones | 14 | 129 | 83 | 1409 | 6 |
2010 | Santana Moss | 16 | 145 | 93 | 1115 | 6 |
2019 | Deebo Samuel | 15 | 81 | 57 | 802 | 6 |
2018 | George Kittle | 16 | 136 | 88 | 1377 | 5 |
2013 | Pierre Garcon | 16 | 181 | 113 | 1346 | 5 |
2019 | George Kittle | 14 | 107 | 85 | 1053 | 5 |
2011 | Jabar Gaffney | 16 | 114 | 68 | 947 | 5 |
2018 | Dante Pettis | 12 | 45 | 27 | 467 | 5 |
2019 | Kendrick Bourne | 16 | 44 | 30 | 358 | 5 |
2012 | Pierre Garcon | 10 | 68 | 44 | 633 | 5 |
2016 | Mohamed Sanu | 15 | 81 | 59 | 653 | 4 |
2011 | Santana Moss | 12 | 95 | 46 | 584 | 4 |
2018 | Kendrick Bourne | 16 | 66 | 42 | 487 | 4 |
2018 | Marquise Goodwin | 11 | 43 | 23 | 395 | 4 |
2017 | Garrett Celek | 16 | 33 | 21 | 336 | 4 |
2016 | Justin Hardy | 16 | 31 | 21 | 203 | 4 |
2019 | Emmanuel Sanders | 10 | 53 | 36 | 502 | 3 |
2010 | Anthony Armstrong | 15 | 86 | 44 | 871 | 3 |
2010 | Chris Cooley | 16 | 126 | 77 | 849 | 3 |
2011 | Fred Davis | 12 | 88 | 59 | 796 | 3 |
2012 | Leonard Hankerson | 16 | 57 | 38 | 543 | 3 |
2013 | Jordan Reed | 9 | 59 | 45 | 499 | 3 |
2013 | Leonard Hankerson | 10 | 50 | 30 | 375 | 3 |
2010 | Fred Davis | 16 | 30 | 21 | 316 | 3 |
2014 | Travis Benjamin | 16 | 46 | 18 | 314 | 3 |
2016 | Austin Hooper | 14 | 27 | 19 | 271 | 3 |
2013 | Logan Paulsen | 16 | 50 | 28 | 267 | 3 |
2012 | Aldrick Robinson | 15 | 19 | 11 | 237 | 3 |
2016 | Jacob Tamme | 8 | 31 | 22 | 210 | 3 |
2017 | Marquise Goodwin | 16 | 105 | 56 | 962 | 2 |
2014 | Andrew Hawkins | 15 | 112 | 63 | 824 | 2 |
2014 | Miles Austin | 12 | 73 | 47 | 568 | 2 |
2017 | George Kittle | 15 | 63 | 43 | 515 | 2 |
2012 | Josh Morgan | 16 | 73 | 48 | 510 | 2 |
2013 | Santana Moss | 16 | 79 | 42 | 452 | 2 |
2017 | Trent Taylor | 15 | 60 | 43 | 430 | 2 |
2014 | Jordan Cameron | 10 | 48 | 24 | 424 | 2 |
2013 | Aldrick Robinson | 16 | 46 | 18 | 365 | 2 |
2016 | Aldrick Robinson | 16 | 32 | 20 | 323 | 2 |
2011 | Donte Stallworth | 11 | 38 | 22 | 309 | 2 |
2010 | Keiland Williams | 15 | 58 | 39 | 309 | 2 |
2016 | Levine Toilolo | 16 | 19 | 13 | 264 | 2 |
2017 | Aldrick Robinson | 16 | 48 | 19 | 260 | 2 |
2015 | Jacob Tamme | 15 | 81 | 59 | 657 | 1 |
2014 | Taylor Gabriel | 16 | 72 | 36 | 621 | 1 |
2015 | Roddy White | 16 | 70 | 43 | 506 | 1 |
2012 | Logan Paulsen | 16 | 38 | 25 | 308 | 1 |
2018 | Pierre Garcon | 8 | 46 | 24 | 286 | 1 |
2014 | Jim Dray | 16 | 27 | 17 | 242 | 1 |
2018 | Trent Taylor | 14 | 41 | 26 | 215 | 1 |
2017 | Pierre Garcon | 8 | 67 | 40 | 500 | 0 |
2012 | Fred Davis | 7 | 31 | 24 | 325 | 0 |
2014 | Josh Gordon | 5 | 47 | 24 | 303 | 0 |
2017 | Kendrick Bourne | 11 | 34 | 16 | 257 | 0 |
2013 | Josh Morgan | 14 | 34 | 20 | 214 | 0 |
Samuel was a 6-TD guy last year, and he got there by diversifying: 3 receiving scores and 3 rushing. With that dual-threat ability, maybe he'll make it up to 10 touchdowns -- something Julio Jones did before Shanahan showed up in Atlanta, but not with him.
But I think if you're rostering Samuel, or George Kittle, or any of the team's talented young pass catchers, you need to keep touchdown expectations modest. It's one area where the history suggests those players might fall a little short of the other top pass catchers.
--Andy Richardson