I’m doing a draft props competition this afternoon. It’s not a proper fantasy league, but it involves picking over-unders on player performance, so it’s a draft-like event.
It’s hosted by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and will be broadcast on Sirius XM (from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Eastern). For information on the league, see the FSGA website.
There’s also a live draft board starting at 4 p.m. Eastern.
On this one, they’ve given us a list of a few hundred prop bets. Some are team-driven, others are centered primarily on player stats. It’s a “draft” in that each bet can be made by only one person. Each person is given $10,000 to allocate to 12 bets (with 168 props total being chosen). Whoever ends the season with the most money wins the league.
I plan to stick mainly to the player yards and touchdown selections. You look at the over-unders, compare them to where you have the player graded, and select the ones where there’s the biggest difference.
I expect I’ll be picking a fair number of unders on rookie receivers. There are a bunch of them slotted for 700-800 yards, and that’s simply very high for a first-year player. (Especially with the offseason being curtailed by the pandemic.)
I can a few numbers on this. If you look at rookie receivers chosen in the last 10 years and set aside the clearly elite guys (think A.J. Green, Julio Jones, etc. – everyone knew they were going to be great) the hit rate is pretty low. In the last 10 years, 30 wide receivers have been chosen between 20th and 40th in drafts. Only six of those guys went over 700 yards in their first season. That’s a 20 percent hit rate. So when you see guys like Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson (pictured) and Denzel Mims, I think you can take the under with those kind of guys with confidence that you’ll be right more often than you’re wrong.
On the chart below, I’m showing only wide receivers chosen between 20th and 40th in the last 10 years. The guys who went over 700 yards are in bold.
ROOKIE RECEIVERS (last 10 years) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pk | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
2010 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 22 | 283 | 12.9 | 2 |
2010 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 24 | 45 | 561 | 12.5 | 6 |
2010 | Arrelious Benn, T.B. | 39 | 25 | 395 | 15.8 | 2 |
2011 | Jonathan Baldwin, K.C. | 26 | 21 | 254 | 12.1 | 1 |
2012 | Kendall Wright, Ten. | 20 | 64 | 626 | 9.8 | 4 |
2012 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2012 | Brian Quick, St.L. | 33 | 11 | 156 | 14.2 | 2 |
2013 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 27 | 52 | 802 | 15.4 | 2 |
2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 29 | 45 | 469 | 10.4 | 4 |
2013 | Justin Hunter, Ten. | 34 | 18 | 354 | 19.7 | 4 |
2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 28 | 73 | 1,008 | 13.8 | 9 |
2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 20 | 53 | 550 | 10.4 | 3 |
2014 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 39 | 37 | 422 | 11.4 | 1 |
2015 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 20 | 23 | 283 | 12.3 | 1 |
2015 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 29 | 18 | 225 | 12.5 | 1 |
2015 | Devin Smith, NYJ | 37 | 9 | 115 | 12.8 | 1 |
2015 | Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten. | 40 | 32 | 549 | 17.2 | 4 |
2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 21 | 47 | 635 | 13.5 | 2 |
2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 22 | 2 | 66 | 33.0 | 0 |
2016 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 23 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 40 | 65 | 683 | 10.5 | 8 |
2017 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 37 | 27 | 316 | 11.7 | 2 |
2017 | Curtis Samuel, Car. | 40 | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 0 |
2018 | DJ Moore, Car. | 24 | 55 | 788 | 14.3 | 2 |
2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 26 | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 |
2018 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 40 | 42 | 704 | 16.8 | 4 |
2019 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 25 | 46 | 584 | 12.7 | 7 |
2019 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 32 | 12 | 105 | 8.8 | 2 |
2019 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 36 | 57 | 802 | 14.1 | 3 |
Other receivers chosen in the first and second rounds in the last 10 years …
OTHER FIRST- AND SECOND-ROUNDERS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pk | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
2010 | Golden Tate, Sea. | 60 | 21 | 227 | 10.8 | 0 |
2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 4 | 65 | 1,057 | 16.3 | 7 |
2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 6 | 54 | 959 | 17.8 | 8 |
2011 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 58 | 50 | 841 | 16.8 | 7 |
2011 | Greg Little, Cle. | 59 | 61 | 709 | 11.6 | 2 |
2011 | Titus Young, Det. | 44 | 48 | 607 | 12.7 | 6 |
2011 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 64 | 25 | 375 | 15.0 | 1 |
2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 5 | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 |
2012 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 13 | 45 | 562 | 12.5 | 2 |
2012 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 45 | 24 | 367 | 15.3 | 3 |
2012 | Ryan Broyles, Det. | 54 | 22 | 310 | 14.1 | 2 |
2012 | Rueben Randle, NYG | 63 | 19 | 298 | 15.7 | 3 |
2012 | Stephen Hill, NYJ | 43 | 21 | 252 | 12.0 | 3 |
2013 | Robert Woods, Buff. | 41 | 40 | 587 | 14.7 | 3 |
2013 | Aaron Dobson, N.E. | 59 | 37 | 519 | 14.0 | 4 |
2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 8 | 40 | 418 | 10.5 | 4 |
2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 12 | 91 | 1,305 | 14.3 | 12 |
2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | 68 | 1,051 | 15.5 | 12 |
2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 4 | 65 | 982 | 15.1 | 6 |
2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 42 | 67 | 872 | 13.0 | 8 |
2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 63 | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 |
2014 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 61 | 48 | 548 | 11.4 | 2 |
2014 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 53 | 38 | 446 | 11.7 | 3 |
2014 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 45 | 29 | 271 | 9.3 | 1 |
2014 | Cody Latimer, Den. | 56 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 4 | 72 | 1,070 | 14.9 | 6 |
2015 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 14 | 26 | 494 | 19.0 | 3 |
2015 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 41 | 31 | 473 | 15.3 | 5 |
2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 47 | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 |
2016 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 55 | 54 | 603 | 11.2 | 1 |
2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 15 | 33 | 413 | 12.5 | 3 |
2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 62 | 58 | 917 | 15.8 | 7 |
2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 5 | 34 | 375 | 11.0 | 0 |
2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 7 | 11 | 95 | 8.6 | 0 |
2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2018 | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 47 | 43 | 590 | 13.7 | 3 |
2018 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 44 | 27 | 467 | 17.3 | 5 |
2018 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 51 | 33 | 423 | 12.8 | 7 |
2018 | James Washington, Pitt. | 60 | 16 | 217 | 13.6 | 1 |
2018 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 61 | 14 | 174 | 12.4 | 0 |
2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 51 | 52 | 1,051 | 20.2 | 8 |
2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 64 | 58 | 900 | 15.5 | 7 |
2019 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 56 | 26 | 538 | 20.7 | 6 |
2019 | Andy Isabella, Ariz. | 62 | 9 | 189 | 21.0 | 1 |
2019 | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Phil. | 57 | 10 | 169 | 16.9 | 1 |
2019 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 59 | 18 | 127 | 7.1 | 1 |
—Ian Allan