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Rookie receivers

Setting over-unders for rookie receivers

I’m doing a draft props competition this afternoon. It’s not a proper fantasy league, but it involves picking over-unders on player performance, so it’s a draft-like event.

It’s hosted by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and will be broadcast on Sirius XM (from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Eastern). For information on the league, see the FSGA website.

There’s also a live draft board starting at 4 p.m. Eastern.

On this one, they’ve given us a list of a few hundred prop bets. Some are team-driven, others are centered primarily on player stats. It’s a “draft” in that each bet can be made by only one person. Each person is given $10,000 to allocate to 12 bets (with 168 props total being chosen). Whoever ends the season with the most money wins the league.

I plan to stick mainly to the player yards and touchdown selections. You look at the over-unders, compare them to where you have the player graded, and select the ones where there’s the biggest difference.

I expect I’ll be picking a fair number of unders on rookie receivers. There are a bunch of them slotted for 700-800 yards, and that’s simply very high for a first-year player. (Especially with the offseason being curtailed by the pandemic.)

I can a few numbers on this. If you look at rookie receivers chosen in the last 10 years and set aside the clearly elite guys (think A.J. Green, Julio Jones, etc. – everyone knew they were going to be great) the hit rate is pretty low. In the last 10 years, 30 wide receivers have been chosen between 20th and 40th in drafts. Only six of those guys went over 700 yards in their first season. That’s a 20 percent hit rate. So when you see guys like Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson (pictured) and Denzel Mims, I think you can take the under with those kind of guys with confidence that you’ll be right more often than you’re wrong.

On the chart below, I’m showing only wide receivers chosen between 20th and 40th in the last 10 years. The guys who went over 700 yards are in bold.

ROOKIE RECEIVERS (last 10 years)
YearPlayerPkNoYardsAvgTD
2010Demaryius Thomas, Den.222228312.92
2010Dez Bryant, Dall.244556112.56
2010Arrelious Benn, T.B.392539515.82
2011Jonathan Baldwin, K.C.262125412.11
2012Kendall Wright, Ten.20646269.84
2012A.J. Jenkins, S.F.3000 0
2012Brian Quick, St.L.331115614.22
2013DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.275280215.42
2013Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.294546910.44
2013Justin Hunter, Ten.341835419.74
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.28731,00813.89
2014Brandin Cooks, N.O.205355010.43
2014Marqise Lee, Jac.393742211.41
2015Nelson Agholor, Phil.202328312.31
2015Breshad Perriman, Balt.2600 0
2015Phillip Dorsett, Ind.291822512.51
2015Devin Smith, NYJ37911512.81
2015Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten.403254917.24
2016Will Fuller, Hou.214763513.52
2016Josh Doctson, Was.2226633.00
2016Laquon Treadwell, Min.2311515.00
2016Sterling Shepard, NYG406568310.58
2017Zay Jones, Buff.372731611.72
2017Curtis Samuel, Car.40151157.70
2018DJ Moore, Car.245578814.32
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.266482112.810
2018Courtland Sutton, Den.404270416.84
2019Marquise Brown, Balt.254658412.77
2019N'Keal Harry, N.E.32121058.82
2019Deebo Samuel, S.F.365780214.13

Other receivers chosen in the first and second rounds in the last 10 years …

OTHER FIRST- AND SECOND-ROUNDERS
YearPlayerPkNoYardsAvgTD
2010Golden Tate, Sea.602122710.80
2011A.J. Green, Cin.4651,05716.37
2011Julio Jones, Atl.65495917.88
2011Torrey Smith, Balt.585084116.87
2011Greg Little, Cle.596170911.62
2011Titus Young, Det.444860712.76
2011Randall Cobb, G.B.642537515.01
2012Justin Blackmon, Jac.56486513.55
2012Michael Floyd, Ariz.134556212.52
2012Alshon Jeffery, Chi.452436715.33
2012Ryan Broyles, Det.542231014.12
2012Rueben Randle, NYG631929815.73
2012Stephen Hill, NYJ432125212.03
2013Robert Woods, Buff.414058714.73
2013Aaron Dobson, N.E.593751914.04
2013Tavon Austin, St.L.84041810.54
2014Odell Beckham, NYG12911,30514.312
2014Mike Evans, T.B.7681,05115.512
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff.46598215.16
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.426787213.08
2014Jarvis Landry, Mia.63847589.05
2014Allen Robinson, Jac.614854811.42
2014Davante Adams, G.B.533844611.73
2014Paul Richardson, Sea.45292719.31
2014Cody Latimer, Den.5622311.50
2015Amari Cooper, Oak.4721,07014.96
2015DeVante Parker, Mia.142649419.03
2015Devin Funchess, Car.413147315.35
2015Kevin White, Chi.700 0
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.47921,13712.49
2016Tyler Boyd, Cin.555460311.21
2016Corey Coleman, Cle.153341312.53
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.625891715.87
2017Corey Davis, Ten.53437511.00
2017Mike Williams, LAC711958.60
2017John Ross, Cin.900 0
2018Christian Kirk, Ariz.474359013.73
2018Dante Pettis, S.F.442746717.35
2018Anthony Miller, Chi.513342312.87
2018James Washington, Pitt.601621713.61
2018DJ Chark, Jac.611417412.40
2019A.J. Brown, Ten.51521,05120.28
2019DK Metcalf, Sea.645890015.57
2019Mecole Hardman, K.C.562653820.76
2019Andy Isabella, Ariz.62918921.01
2019J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Phil.571016916.91
2019Parris Campbell, Ind.59181277.11

—Ian Allan

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