I’m not a big Todd Gurley fan. I would be surprised if there’s a point in any draft this year where I’m on the clock and giving any thought of selecting him. With his knee issues, I just don’t think he’s the back he was a few years back.
At the end of the 2018 season, Gurley wasn’t even the best running back on his own team. C.J. Anderson showed up and was outperforming him. And Gurley was underwhelming last year, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry – about a yard less than the previous two seasons.
Gurley’s steepest decline has come in the passing game. He averaged only 4.2 yards per pass play last year, about half of where he was at the previous two years. Gurley caught only 63 percent of the passes thrown his way, the lowest rate of any running back in the league who saw at least 30 targets.
Some of Gurley’s decline can be attributed to offensive line problems. How much can be debated. But to my eye, he’s not the elite, difference-making running back he’s been in the past. At best he might be one of the league’s 20 best running backs (but I don’t think he is). When the Rams released him, making him an unrestricted free agent, Gurley signed a modest deal with the Falcons – one year for $5.5 million.
At the same time, I will concede that Gurley last year at least was effective in short-yardage and goal-line situations. The Rams went to him 18 times when they were looking to pick up a crucial yard (that is, either at the 1-yard line or when trying to keep a drive alive on third-and-one or fourth-and-one) and Gurley was successful on 15 of those carries.
That’s a good rate – 83 percent. Among running backs with at least 10 such carries, only two were more successful on those plays. And the 83 percent represents a career high – better than his final two seasons under Jeff Fisher, and better than his first two years with Sean McVay. Gurley went 45 of 73 (62 percent) in his first four seasons.
The Falcons should have an above-average offense, and they’ve got a decent line. So maybe he can deliver a decent number of short touchdown runs. But that’s not something I’m banking on.
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (2019 season) | zz | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 16 | 17 | 94.1% |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ariz. | 9 | 10 | 90.0% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 15 | 18 | 83.3% |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 10 | 12 | 83.3% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 18 | 83.3% |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 9 | 11 | 81.8% |
| Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 12 | 15 | 80.0% |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 23 | 30 | 76.7% |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 11 | 15 | 73.3% |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Alec Ingold, Oak. | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 9 | 13 | 69.2% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 13 | 19 | 68.4% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 14 | 21 | 66.7% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 9 | 14 | 64.3% |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
| Frank Gore, Buff. | 4 | 16 | 25.0% |
Here, by the way, are the short-yardage rushing totals for the last three years (showing all running backs with at least 20 carries).
| "AND ONE" RUSHING (last 3 years) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 51 | 61 | 83.6% |
| Javorius Allen, Bal-NYG | 17 | 21 | 81.0% |
| LeVeon Bell, Pit-NYJ | 22 | 28 | 78.6% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 37 | 48 | 77.1% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 20 | 26 | 76.9% |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 43 | 59 | 72.9% |
| Kareem Hunt, KC-Cle | 16 | 22 | 72.7% |
| Mark Ingram, NO-Bal | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| Latavius Murray, Mn-NO | 20 | 28 | 71.4% |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia-Az | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 31 | 44 | 70.5% |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 18 | 26 | 69.2% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 42 | 62 | 67.7% |
| Jordan Howard, Chi-Phi | 25 | 37 | 67.6% |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 18 | 27 | 66.7% |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 18 | 27 | 66.7% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 29 | 44 | 65.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 17 | 26 | 65.4% |
| Marshawn Lynch, Oak-Sea | 17 | 26 | 65.4% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buf-KC | 15 | 23 | 65.2% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 18 | 28 | 64.3% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 30 | 48 | 62.5% |
| Adrian Peterson, 3 tm | 15 | 24 | 62.5% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 17 | 28 | 60.7% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 15 | 25 | 60.0% |
| Carlos Hyde, 4 tm | 29 | 49 | 59.2% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 14 | 24 | 58.3% |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 22 | 39 | 56.4% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 18 | 32 | 56.3% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl-SF | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 13 | 27 | 48.1% |
| LeGarrette Blount, 2 tm | 10 | 21 | 47.6% |
| Frank Gore, 3 tm | 14 | 30 | 46.7% |
—Ian Allan