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Strength of schedule

Dallas projects to face softest defenses

With strength of schedule, if we’re looking at points (instead of wins & losses) Dallas, Washington and Chicago project to play the best schedules. Those are the offenses that will be facing opponents who tended to allow more points last year.

For all three of those teams, their 16 opponents (on average) allowed more than 23.5 points per game last year. The order goes Dallas-Washington-Chicago if you look at the entire season. If you toss Week 17 (not used in many fantasy leagues) the order is reversed, but those are still the three most favorable teams.

The Dolphins and Texans, on the other hand, project to play the hardest schedules. The defenses they’ll face tended to allow over 2 fewer points per game. (That’s using 2019 data, so read into it what you will – a lot of teams will be radically different this year, but you’ve got to start somewhere).

If we use the full 17 weeks, the Titans and Jets also fail to get over 22 points per week. If we instead drop the last game for each team, then it’s the Bills and Titans projecting to play the 3rd- and 4th-worst schedules.

SOS: POINTS (Weeks 1-17)
TeamAvg
Dallas23.8
Washington23.7
Chicago23.6
New Orleans23.5
Philadelphia23.4
Carolina23.4
Atlanta23.3
Tampa Bay23.3
San Francisco23.3
LA Rams23.2
Arizona23.2
Minnesota23.2
LA Chargers23.0
NY Giants23.0
Green Bay22.9
Detroit22.9
Cincinnati22.8
Cleveland22.8
Seattle22.8
Kansas City22.7
Baltimore22.7
Pittsburgh22.7
New England22.6
Denver22.6
Jacksonville22.5
Indianapolis22.4
Las Vegas22.3
Buffalo22.2
NY Jets22.0
Tennessee22.0
Houston21.4
Miami21.1
SOS: POINTS (Weeks 1-16)
TeamAvg
Chicago23.9
Washington23.8
Dallas23.5
Carolina23.5
LA Chargers23.3
Arizona23.2
San Francisco23.2
Tampa Bay23.2
Cincinnati23.2
Green Bay23.2
NY Giants23.2
New Orleans23.1
Detroit23.1
Philadelphia23.1
Cleveland23.1
Seattle23.0
Atlanta23.0
Minnesota23.0
LA Rams22.9
Kansas City22.8
New England22.6
Pittsburgh22.6
NY Jets22.5
Baltimore22.5
Las Vegas22.4
Jacksonville22.4
Denver22.3
Indianapolis22.3
Tennessee21.8
Buffalo21.7
Miami21.4
Houston21.4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index