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Strength of schedule

Chargers project to face worst offenses in 2020

Last time I addressed Strength of Schedule there was a request for defensive information. That is, what defenses project to play the easiest schedules (offenses that didn’t score many points in 2019)?

I’m using touchdowns on this one. That is, I’m setting aside touchdowns scored on kick returns and defensive plays – instead trying to focus on what offenses might do.

If we’re going off last year’s production, the Ravens and 49ers would be the most-feared opponents – the two offenses that scored more than 50 touchdowns last year. The Jets and Steelers, meanwhile, are the two offenses that scored the fewest touchdowns last year.

I’m not saying those are good assumptions. More on that in a moment. But if we’re going the fact-based route, the numbers generating our totals look like this …

OFFENSES, TOUCHDOWNS (2019)
OffenseTDs
Baltimore58
San Francisco51
Tennessee50
Dallas48
New Orleans48
Tampa Bay48
Kansas City46
Seattle46
Minnesota45
Green Bay44
Houston44
Philadelphia43
LA Rams42
New England42
NY Giants41
Atlanta39
Indianapolis39
Arizona38
Carolina37
Cleveland37
LA Chargers36
Detroit35
Las Vegas35
Buffalo34
Miami32
Chicago28
Cincinnati27
Denver27
Jacksonville27
Washington27
NY Jets25
Pittsburgh25

If we take those numbers and plug them into the 2020 schedule, the Chargers and Dolphins project to play the easiest/best schedules (for their defenses). Those are the two teams whose 16 games are against offenses that last year scored fewer than 580 combined touchdowns. Chicago, Washington and Atlanta project to see the best offenses, each coming in about 80 touchdowns higher (on average their opponents should score about 5 TDs more during the 16-game season).

Generally, the Chargers could finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the AFC West, but they have some nice defensive pieces – Joey Bosa (pictured), Derwin James, Melvin Ingram. If the schedule plays out the way it’s supposed to, some chance this is a top-10 defense (in terms of allowing points).

SOS, DEFENSES (TOUCHDOWNS) Wks 1-17
TeamTD
LA Chargers575
Miami577
Tennessee580
Baltimore585
Buffalo594
Cleveland599
Las Vegas599
Indianapolis601
Kansas City603
New England605
NY Jets613
Denver614
Houston619
Pittsburgh624
Cincinnati627
Tampa Bay627
Dallas630
Carolina631
Detroit631
Jacksonville633
NY Giants636
San Francisco636
LA Rams638
New Orleans638
Seattle638
Minnesota640
Arizona642
Green Bay642
Philadelphia648
Atlanta656
Washington660
Chicago663

Most fantasy leagues don’t use Week 17 (though with the COVID pandemic, maybe that changes this year). If we set aside Week 17, looking at just the first 15 games for each team, it’s the Chargers and Titans playing the league’s most favorable schedules (for their defenses, at least). And Philadelphia, Chicago and Washington project to play the hardest schedules.

SOS, DEFENSES (TOUCHDOWNS) Wks 1-16
TeamTD
LA Chargers529
Tennessee536
Miami543
Baltimore558
Buffalo562
Kansas City567
Cincinnati569
Houston569
NY Jets571
Las Vegas572
Cleveland574
Indianapolis574
Denver579
New England580
Carolina583
Detroit586
Pittsburgh587
Seattle587
NY Giants588
Tampa Bay588
Dallas589
San Francisco590
Jacksonville594
Arizona600
LA Rams600
New Orleans601
Minnesota605
Atlanta608
Green Bay614
Washington617
Chicago619
Philadelphia621

All of those numbers, of course, are based on what offenses did last year. I’m not sure that’s the best way to go. No doubt lots of offenses will be wildly different. Pittsburgh, for example, ranked last in offensive touchdowns last year, but that might not be an above-average offense with Ben Roethlisberger coming back. And it’s weird that Kansas City last year was outscored by six teams. Heading into 2020, I think most people consider the KC offense to rank closer to first in scoring.

So if we instead throw out 2019 data and use my offensive projections, we get different (I think better) Strength of schedule results.

Looking at all 17 weeks of the season, I believe Kansas City, Indianapolis and New England will play the three most favorable schedules. And I’ve got Houston, Washington and Atlanta playing the three worst schedules (facing offenses that should score plenty of points).

SOS, PROJECTED TOUCHDOWNS (Wks 1-17)
TeamOff TDs
Kansas City610.9
Indianapolis619.0
New England623.0
Miami625.3
Tennessee627.0
Buffalo631.0
LA Chargers633.0
Cleveland633.1
Arizona633.4
Detroit635.2
Seattle636.0
Pittsburgh639.2
Tampa Bay641.0
Green Bay641.8
Cincinnati642.1
Jacksonville642.1
LA Rams643.2
Dallas643.4
NY Jets643.5
New Orleans644.0
Denver645.1
Baltimore645.9
Las Vegas646.7
San Francisco647.5
Minnesota647.7
Chicago651.8
NY Giants653.1
Philadelphia655.8
Carolina657.9
Atlanta662.1
Washington662.6
Houston662.6

If we toss out Week 17, the Chargers move up into the easiest schedule spot, with KC dropping down to No. 2. Philadelphia, Washington and Houston project to play the hardest schedules in their first 15 games.

SOS, PROJECTED TOUCHDOWNS (Wks 1-16)
TeamOff TDs
LA Chargers576.5
Kansas City578.1
Tennessee587.5
Indianapolis588.0
Miami588.3
New England591.0
Seattle591.4
Cincinnati591.8
Cleveland593.1
Arizona593.4
Detroit593.4
Jacksonville596.6
Pittsburgh598.4
NY Jets599.5
Tampa Bay600.6
Buffalo600.8
LA Rams601.1
San Francisco601.8
Dallas605.3
NY Giants608.0
Denver608.3
Green Bay608.5
Chicago608.5
Minnesota608.8
Carolina609.9
Las Vegas610.4
New Orleans610.7
Baltimore612.5
Atlanta617.6
Houston618.9
Washington619.0
Philadelphia625.3

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index