We've talked some about the impact a shortened (cancelled?) preseason might have on the NFL. Specifically, that it will be harder for rookies to make an early impact, with the loss of minicamps, practice time and exhibition game action. So I wondered if maybe we're all underestimating the chance of Kerryon Johnson being a relevant player in Detroit.
The Lions drafted D'Andre Swift near the top of Round 2 in April, and there's no doubt he's the future of the backfield. Accordingly, he's being drafted a lot earlier -- latest ADP data I saw had Swift in the fifth round of PPR drafts, and Johnson in the 9th. And in actual drafts I've been in, the gap is much wider, as in 3rd-4th round for Swift and 10th-11th for Johnson.
Strictly in terms of value, Johnson is the better choice -- will be a lot easier for him to perform at the level of a 10th-rounder than for Swift to perform at the level of the players (especially at other positions, wide receivers or perhaps tight ends) selected around where he's going. But based on Johnson's two years in the league, it looks like a pretty low ceiling.
In the first place, Johnson has missed 6-8 games due to injury in each of his first two seasons. With that missed time, he's finished as the 33rd and 54th PPR running back those years -- not desirable. And even if you set aside the missed games and look strictly at per-game numbers, he hasn't been a difference-maker.
On a per-game basis the last two years, Johnson has averaged exactly 13 points per contest. A functional starter, but that ranks just 29th among all running backs to start 10-plus games the last two seasons. The running backs who show up in that area either have way, way more upside and big games in that time (Miles Sanders and Damien Williams, both who were much better the second half of last season) or are committee guys you don't really want to have put into a lineup: Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, and a few guys who aren't even currently on NFL rosters.
| RUNNING BACKS PER GAME, 2018-2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Run | Rec | Total | TD | FPG |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 32 | 77.7 | 58.5 | 136.2 | 1.03 | 26.8 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 29 | 79.7 | 40.0 | 119.6 | .80 | 21.7 |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 11 | 74.9 | 34.4 | 109.3 | 1.27 | 20.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 31 | 90.0 | 31.8 | 121.9 | .74 | 20.9 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 29 | 57.9 | 42.8 | 100.8 | .86 | 20.8 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 29 | 72.7 | 27.1 | 99.8 | 1.25 | 20.6 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 24 | 62.4 | 32.8 | 95.1 | .99 | 19.3 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 24 | 67.7 | 26.6 | 94.3 | 1.13 | 19.1 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 23 | 62.5 | 32.5 | 95.0 | .90 | 18.8 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 25 | 70.0 | 33.0 | 103.0 | .68 | 18.1 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 23 | 69.2 | 30.7 | 99.9 | .39 | 16.6 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 26 | 89.1 | 16.4 | 105.5 | .62 | 16.4 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 31 | 83.8 | 9.8 | 93.7 | .97 | 16.2 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 30 | 76.8 | 19.4 | 96.3 | .57 | 15.6 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 24 | 51.8 | 32.0 | 83.8 | .64 | 15.6 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ari. | 14 | 58.4 | 24.6 | 83.0 | .60 | 15.4 |
| James White (3rd), N.E. | 31 | 22.2 | 45.0 | 67.2 | .59 | 15.4 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 29 | 82.1 | 14.8 | 96.9 | .62 | 15.4 |
| Austin Ekeler (C), LAC | 23 | 33.1 | 45.7 | 78.8 | .52 | 15.1 |
| Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 13 | 88.5 | 12.8 | 101.2 | .54 | 14.9 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 15 | 69.1 | 16.1 | 85.2 | .67 | 14.9 |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 27 | 61.6 | 15.4 | 77.0 | .84 | 14.5 |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 15 | 52.6 | 30.7 | 83.3 | .29 | 14.5 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 14 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 76.1 | .43 | 14.4 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 25 | 78.6 | 7.3 | 85.9 | .76 | 14.4 |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 10 | 69.2 | 19.4 | 88.6 | .40 | 14.2 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 16 | 51.1 | 31.8 | 82.9 | .40 | 13.8 |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 11 | 45.3 | 19.4 | 64.6 | .64 | 13.0 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 17 | 60.4 | 18.8 | 79.2 | .47 | 13.0 |
| Tarik Cohen (3rd), Chi. | 32 | 20.5 | 36.9 | 57.4 | .36 | 12.6 |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 14 | 69.5 | 11.6 | 81.1 | .43 | 12.5 |
| Jordan Howard, Phil. | 25 | 58.4 | 8.6 | 67.0 | .64 | 11.7 |
| Alex Collins, Balt. | 10 | 41.1 | 10.5 | 51.6 | .80 | 11.5 |
| Matt Breida (C), S.F. | 23 | 59.0 | 16.1 | 75.1 | .30 | 11.2 |
| Tevin Coleman (C), S.F. | 28 | 46.8 | 14.8 | 61.6 | .54 | 11.2 |
| Doug Martin, Oak. | 10 | 62.4 | 11.1 | 73.5 | .40 | 11.2 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 31 | 62.6 | 11.3 | 73.9 | .42 | 11.1 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 16 | 55.6 | 11.6 | 67.1 | .44 | 10.9 |
| Isaiah Crowell (C), NYJ | 13 | 52.7 | 11.7 | 64.4 | .46 | 10.8 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 16 | 45.3 | 19.3 | 64.6 | .38 | 10.6 |
| Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 23 | 63.7 | 3.3 | 67.0 | .48 | 10.4 |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 29 | 63.6 | 5.0 | 68.5 | .45 | 10.2 |
At some point, Johnson will far too far in drafts to be ignored -- may need to be drafted as a potential spot starter. But he wasn't a great starter even before the Lions used an early second-round pick on his replacement, so it's unlikely he'll be a good one in 2020, either.
--Andy Richardson