Looks like we're discussing the possibility of veterans bouncing back from poor seasons this week. So how about A.J. Green? Not only did he not play at all last season, but he missed at least 6 games in two of the three seasons prior to that. Is he worth a significant draft pick?
At least Green will be playing. He signed his franchise tag tender yesterday, so there shouldn't be any concern about him not showing up. But he doesn't seem to have many believers. Depending on your source for ADP data, he's being selected outside the top 25 wideouts; he's the 2nd A.J. being drafted, as well.
But now that he's under contract and playing for perhaps a decent payday a year from now, I have some interest in him. It's easy to forget, what with him having missed 29 of a possible 64 games the last four seasons, but when he's on the field he's been a difference maker.
Green turns 32 in a couple of weeks, which is on the older side but not crumbling-into-dust status for a wide receiver. The injuries are definitely a concern, but he's apparently healthy now. A healthy Green has been a top-10 type of wideout even in these recent injury-marred seasons.
Even since 2016, when his chunks of missed games began, he's averaged over 5 catches for 78 yards, with a touchdown every other game. That works out to 16.2 PPR fantasy points. Among wide receivers who have started at least half those games, only nine have been better.
| WIDE RECEIVERS PER GAME, 2016-2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | No | Yds | TD | PPR |
| Antonio Brown | 45 | 7.0 | 92.7 | .83 | 21.3 |
| Michael Thomas | 63 | 7.5 | 87.5 | .51 | 19.2 |
| Julio Jones | 61 | 6.3 | 97.1 | .38 | 18.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 62 | 6.3 | 81.8 | .58 | 18.0 |
| Davante Adams | 57 | 6.0 | 74.8 | .72 | 17.8 |
| Tyreek Hill | 52 | 5.0 | 74.8 | .71 | 17.7 |
| Mike Evans | 60 | 5.3 | 83.4 | .59 | 17.2 |
| Odell Beckham | 48 | 5.8 | 78.3 | .49 | 16.8 |
| Keenan Allen | 49 | 6.3 | 78.6 | .39 | 16.7 |
| A.J. Green | 35 | 5.3 | 78.2 | .51 | 16.2 |
| Julian Edelman | 44 | 6.2 | 69.8 | .37 | 15.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 57 | 5.5 | 68.5 | .46 | 15.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | 39 | 5.0 | 66.6 | .54 | 15.0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 64 | 5.8 | 66.8 | .39 | 14.9 |
| Adam Thielen | 58 | 5.2 | 69.6 | .44 | 14.9 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 42 | 5.0 | 68.9 | .44 | 14.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 56 | 4.8 | 74.7 | .38 | 14.6 |
| Robert Woods | 54 | 5.2 | 68.8 | .30 | 14.4 |
| Amari Cooper | 61 | 4.7 | 66.0 | .45 | 14.0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 45 | 4.9 | 60.8 | .47 | 13.7 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 64 | 5.6 | 58.1 | .36 | 13.6 |
| Golden Tate | 58 | 5.3 | 61.2 | .34 | 13.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 62 | 4.3 | 65.2 | .38 | 13.4 |
| Marvin Jones | 53 | 4.0 | 62.6 | .51 | 13.3 |
| Allen Robinson | 46 | 4.9 | 60.9 | .38 | 13.3 |
| Kenny Golladay | 42 | 3.9 | 65.0 | .45 | 13.1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 46 | 4.6 | 53.9 | .51 | 13.1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 50 | 4.3 | 58.7 | .46 | 13.0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 57 | 4.6 | 58.3 | .32 | 12.5 |
| Tyler Boyd | 46 | 4.8 | 58.2 | .28 | 12.5 |
| Sterling Shepard | 53 | 4.7 | 54.0 | .33 | 12.3 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 58 | 4.6 | 54.2 | .28 | 11.7 |
| Will Fuller | 41 | 3.8 | 54.0 | .41 | 11.7 |
| Michael Crabtree | 47 | 4.3 | 47.7 | .43 | 11.6 |
| Jamison Crowder | 56 | 4.3 | 51.0 | .34 | 11.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | 44 | 3.5 | 59.2 | .32 | 11.5 |
| Tyler Lockett | 63 | 3.6 | 50.4 | .37 | 11.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 32 | 3.6 | 56.8 | .31 | 11.2 |
| Mike Wallace | 32 | 3.9 | 55.2 | .26 | 11.1 |
| DeVante Parker | 54 | 3.9 | 54.2 | .28 | 11.0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 32 | 4.5 | 57.1 | .13 | 10.9 |
| Dede Westbrook | 37 | 4.2 | 45.4 | .29 | 10.8 |
| Robby Anderson | 59 | 3.5 | 51.3 | .34 | 10.7 |
| Randall Cobb | 52 | 4.2 | 47.6 | .26 | 10.6 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 60 | 4.1 | 45.0 | .28 | 10.5 |
| Sammy Watkins | 47 | 3.4 | 47.1 | .35 | 10.3 |
| Tyrell Williams | 62 | 3.1 | 49.9 | .35 | 10.3 |
| Kenny Stills | 60 | 3.0 | 44.8 | .43 | 10.0 |
There's good depth at the position, so I can understand those who don't even have Green on their draft boards. But some of the wideouts being selected in the same area also have questions. Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry (coming off surgery) -- there are age or injury risks with a lot of these guys. And a healthy Green has reached higher heights than any of them.
Plenty of questions in Cincinnati's offense, with a rookie quarterback and suspect offensive line. And Tyler Boyd has emerged as a legitimate player the last two years; he's also been coming at a value in drafts, without the age or injury concerns of Green. But I think he makes some sense if he slips too far, forgotten about by the other 11 drafters. Way more upside than a lot of the players being selected about the same place.
--Andy Richardson