Is there such a thing as a durable running back? Or is just such a physically demanding position that when you take one with an early pick (even a proven superstar) you’ve got to cross your fingers and hope for the best?
There are some current players who’ve logged a lot of touches recently and don’t seem to break down, with Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey leading the way. But past performance guarantee doesn’t guarantee future results.
I poked around with some numbers, trying to get a “big data” feel for the issue.
For this one, I looked at all running backs who played at least 15 games two years in a row, with at least 1,000 yards in each of those seasons. There have been 46 such backs in the last 10 years, and we can then look at how they fared. That is, were they for the most part durable?
If we consider playing 14 regular-season games to be pretty much “durable”, then 30 of those 46 backs were able to clear that bar (though five finished short of a 1,000 total yards).
Six of these 46 backs didn’t even play half the season. I consider that to be a positive number. That is, if you’ve picking from a group of running backs and 40 of the 46 at least played more than half the season, that’s a good thing. I’ve got those guys in bold.
Of the 46 backs, 11 (about a quarter) played more than half the season but fewer than 14 games. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.
There are no sure things at this position. If you take any running back – even a battle-tested option like Elliott or Henry – it’s while assuming the risk that the player’s season could end on any given play. But the overall hit/miss rate here looks pretty good. Durability-wise, you’re doing better than just flipping a coin when you select a rugged back with an early-round choice.
RUNNING BACKS COMING OFF TWO STRAIGHT 'DURABLE' SEASONS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | G | Run | Rec | Total |
2010 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 25 | 16 | 1,069 | 547 | 1,616 |
2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 25 | 16 | 1,364 | 245 | 1,609 |
2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 25 | 15 | 1,298 | 341 | 1,639 |
2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 25 | 14 | 1,324 | 317 | 1,641 |
2010 | • Marion Barber, Dall. | 27 | 13 | 374 | 49 | 423 |
2010 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 28 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 45 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 24 | 16 | 1,364 | 704 | 2,068 |
2011 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 26 | 16 | 1,047 | 418 | 1,465 |
2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 28 | 15 | 1,145 | 333 | 1,478 |
2011 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 24 | 15 | 928 | 154 | 1,082 |
2011 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 26 | 12 | 997 | 490 | 1,487 |
2011 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 26 | 12 | 970 | 139 | 1,109 |
2011 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 25 | 2 | 83 | 9 | 92 |
2012 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 25 | 16 | 1,143 | 478 | 1,621 |
2012 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 27 | 16 | 1,243 | 232 | 1,475 |
2012 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 29 | 16 | 1,045 | 321 | 1,366 |
2012 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 24 | 12 | 840 | 373 | 1,213 |
2012 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 25 | 6 | 182 | 62 | 244 |
2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 27 | 16 | 1,257 | 316 | 1,573 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 28 | 16 | 1,077 | 345 | 1,422 |
2013 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 26 | 15 | 660 | 321 | 981 |
2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 28 | 14 | 1,006 | 506 | 1,512 |
2013 | • Shonn Greene, Ten. | 28 | 11 | 295 | 39 | 334 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 29 | 16 | 1,038 | 808 | 1,846 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 28 | 16 | 1,306 | 367 | 1,673 |
2014 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 26 | 16 | 1,074 | 155 | 1,229 |
2014 | Chris Johnson, NYJ | 29 | 16 | 663 | 151 | 814 |
2014 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 28 | 15 | 1,033 | 291 | 1,324 |
2014 | • C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 27 | 9 | 300 | 125 | 425 |
2015 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 27 | 16 | 751 | 55 | 806 |
2015 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 25 | 15 | 758 | 188 | 946 |
2015 | • Joique Bell, Det. | 29 | 13 | 311 | 286 | 597 |
2015 | • LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 27 | 12 | 895 | 292 | 1,187 |
2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 29 | 7 | 417 | 80 | 497 |
2015 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 29 | 5 | 364 | 177 | 541 |
2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 28 | 16 | 1,287 | 377 | 1,664 |
2016 | Lamar Miller, Hou. | 25 | 14 | 1,073 | 188 | 1,261 |
2017 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 29 | 15 | 659 | 266 | 925 |
2017 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 25 | 14 | 865 | 317 | 1,182 |
2017 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 26 | 1 | 23 | 67 | 90 |
2018 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 24 | 16 | 935 | 145 | 1,080 |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 24 | 14 | 1,251 | 580 | 1,831 |
2018 | • Isaiah Crowell, NYJ | 25 | 13 | 685 | 152 | 837 |
2018 | • Mark Ingram, N.O. | 29 | 12 | 645 | 170 | 815 |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 23 | 16 | 1,387 | 1,005 | 2,392 |
2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 24 | 14 | 797 | 533 | 1,330 |
2019 | • Jordan Howard, Phil. | 25 | 10 | 525 | 69 | 594 |
—Ian Allan