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RB Durability

Injury rates for seemingly durable running backs

Is there such a thing as a durable running back? Or is just such a physically demanding position that when you take one with an early pick (even a proven superstar) you’ve got to cross your fingers and hope for the best?

There are some current players who’ve logged a lot of touches recently and don’t seem to break down, with Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey leading the way. But past performance guarantee doesn’t guarantee future results.

I poked around with some numbers, trying to get a “big data” feel for the issue.

For this one, I looked at all running backs who played at least 15 games two years in a row, with at least 1,000 yards in each of those seasons. There have been 46 such backs in the last 10 years, and we can then look at how they fared. That is, were they for the most part durable?

If we consider playing 14 regular-season games to be pretty much “durable”, then 30 of those 46 backs were able to clear that bar (though five finished short of a 1,000 total yards).

Six of these 46 backs didn’t even play half the season. I consider that to be a positive number. That is, if you’ve picking from a group of running backs and 40 of the 46 at least played more than half the season, that’s a good thing. I’ve got those guys in bold.

Of the 46 backs, 11 (about a quarter) played more than half the season but fewer than 14 games. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.

There are no sure things at this position. If you take any running back – even a battle-tested option like Elliott or Henry – it’s while assuming the risk that the player’s season could end on any given play. But the overall hit/miss rate here looks pretty good. Durability-wise, you’re doing better than just flipping a coin when you select a rugged back with an early-round choice.

RUNNING BACKS COMING OFF TWO STRAIGHT 'DURABLE' SEASONS
YearPlayerAgeGRunRecTotal
2010Matt Forte, Chi.25161,0695471,616
2010Chris Johnson, Ten.25161,3642451,609
2010Adrian Peterson, Min.25151,2983411,639
2010Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.25141,3243171,641
2010• Marion Barber, Dall.271337449423
2010Ryan Grant, G.B.28145045
2011Ray Rice, Balt.24161,3647042,068
2011Chris Johnson, Ten.26161,0474181,465
2011Steven Jackson, St.L.28151,1453331,478
2011Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.24159281541,082
2011• Matt Forte, Chi.26129974901,487
2011• Adrian Peterson, Min.26129701391,109
2011Jamaal Charles, K.C.25283992
2012Ray Rice, Balt.25161,1434781,621
2012Chris Johnson, Ten.27161,2432321,475
2012Steven Jackson, St.L.29161,0453211,366
2012• LeSean McCoy, Phil.24128403731,213
2012Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.25618262244
2013Marshawn Lynch, Sea.27161,2573161,573
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.28161,0773451,422
2013Ray Rice, Balt.2615660321981
2013Reggie Bush, Det.28141,0065061,512
2013• Shonn Greene, Ten.281129539334
2014Matt Forte, Chi.29161,0388081,846
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.28161,3063671,673
2014Alfred Morris, Was.26161,0741551,229
2014Chris Johnson, NYJ2916663151814
2014Jamaal Charles, K.C.28151,0332911,324
2014• C.J. Spiller, Buff.279300125425
2015Alfred Morris, Was.271675155806
2015Eddie Lacy, G.B.2515758188946
2015• Joique Bell, Det.2913311286597
2015• LeSean McCoy, Buff.27128952921,187
2015Marshawn Lynch, Sea.29741780497
2015Jamaal Charles, K.C.295364177541
2016DeMarco Murray, Ten.28161,2873771,664
2016Lamar Miller, Hou.25141,0731881,261
2017DeMarco Murray, Ten.2915659266925
2017Devonta Freeman, Atl.25148653171,182
2017David Johnson, Ariz.261236790
2018Jordan Howard, Chi.24169351451,080
2018Todd Gurley, LAR24141,2515801,831
2018• Isaiah Crowell, NYJ2513685152837
2018• Mark Ingram, N.O.2912645170815
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.23161,3871,0052,392
2019Alvin Kamara, N.O.24147975331,330
2019• Jordan Howard, Phil.251052569594

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index