The Dolphins tend to be regarded as a team on the rise. They seem to have the right coach, and they finished strong last year. But I’m cooler on Miami’s offensive players than most.
Recapping (for those who are rusty) Miami’s offense really came on in the second half of last year. After a pretty dreadful start, they ranked 9th in scoring in their final eight game. They averaged 294 passing yards in those games (3rd-most in the league), with 13 TDs.
Miami scored 100 more points in the second half of the season, the 2nd-largest improvement in the league. And they averaged 74 more passing yards per game (No. 1).
Then, shockingly, they fired offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea. They’ve got 68-year-old Chan Gailey taking over the offense, and he’s going to install a completely different, simplified system.
I don’t get it. As well as O’Shea had that offense playing late last year, I thought the correct course was to leave him in there.
With Gailey taking over, that has me far less interested in rolling the dice on a player like DeVante Parker (pictured), Preston Williams, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tua Tagovailoa, Sticky Gesicki, Jordan Howard or Matt Breida. It’s a different offense, and roles change.
Gailey has been coaching in the NFL with various teams for years (though none since 2016). None of his last 12 teams have ranked higher than 14th in overall passing. (Fantasy stats, I speak of, including 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards.) Only 25 percent of those 12 teams ranked higher than 20th.
GAILEY: PASSING | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Rate | Rk |
1989 | Denver | 54% | 3,352 | 21 | 20 | 73.7 | 20 |
1990 | Denver | 58% | 3,671 | 15 | 18 | 74.6 | 6 |
1996 | Pittsburgh | 54% | 2,990 | 15 | 19 | 68.0 | 28 |
1997 | Pittsburgh | 54% | 3,215 | 22 | 19 | 74.8 | 23 |
1998 | Dallas | 59% | 3,546 | 17 | 8 | 87.2 | 14 |
1999 | Dallas | 58% | 3,278 | 20 | 13 | 80.0 | 25 |
2000 | Miami | 58% | 2,720 | 15 | 17 | 72.2 | 30 |
2001 | Miami | 61% | 3,335 | 20 | 19 | 80.6 | 20 |
2008 | Kansas City | 57% | 3,358 | 23 | 16 | 77.5 | 18 |
2010 | Buffalo | 57% | 3,371 | 24 | 21 | 75.2 | 25 |
2011 | Buffalo | 62% | 3,857 | 24 | 25 | 77.0 | 16 |
2012 | Buffalo | 60% | 3,430 | 24 | 17 | 82.2 | 25 |
2015 | NY Jets | 60% | 4,170 | 33 | 16 | 88.0 | 15 |
2016 | NY Jets | 57% | 3,645 | 16 | 25 | 67.6 | 28 |
Gailey has had more success with running games, but he’s not getting much to work with in that area. Miami last year allowed a league-low 72 rushing yards per game and doesn’t have a great offensive line. Their running backs last year combined to run for only 833 yards – 300 fewer than the running backs of every other team.
GAILEY: RUSHING | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Rk |
1989 | Denver | 554 | 2,092 | 3.8 | 15 | 6 |
1990 | Denver | 462 | 1,872 | 4.1 | 19 | 14 |
1996 | Pittsburgh | 525 | 2,299 | 4.4 | 18 | 2 |
1997 | Pittsburgh | 572 | 2,479 | 4.3 | 19 | 1 |
1998 | Dallas | 499 | 2,014 | 4.0 | 21 | 8 |
1999 | Dallas | 493 | 2,051 | 4.2 | 16 | 6 |
2000 | Miami | 496 | 1,894 | 3.8 | 16 | 14 |
2001 | Miami | 473 | 1,664 | 3.5 | 14 | 23 |
2008 | Kansas City | 379 | 1,810 | 4.8 | 9 | 16 |
2010 | Buffalo | 401 | 1,720 | 4.3 | 6 | 18 |
2011 | Buffalo | 391 | 1,921 | 4.9 | 12 | 13 |
2012 | Buffalo | 442 | 2,217 | 5.0 | 12 | 6 |
2015 | NY Jets | 448 | 1,868 | 4.2 | 11 | 10 |
2016 | NY Jets | 418 | 1,802 | 4.3 | 10 | 12 |
Four of Gailey’s last six teams have ranked outside the top 20 in scoring.
GAILEY: WINS / SCORING | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Record | Points | Rk |
1989 | Denver | 11-5 | 362 | 9 |
1990 | Denver | 5-11 | 331 | 16 |
1996 | Pittsburgh | 10-6 | 344 | 11 |
1997 | Pittsburgh | 11-5 | 372 | 7 |
1998 | Dallas | 10-6 | 381 | 9 |
1999 | Dallas | 8-8 | 352 | 11 |
2000 | Miami | 11-5 | 323 | 16 |
2001 | Miami | 11-5 | 344 | 8 |
2008 | Kansas City | 2-14 | 291 | 26 |
2010 | Buffalo | 4-12 | 283 | 28 |
2011 | Buffalo | 6-10 | 372 | 14 |
2012 | Buffalo | 6-10 | 344 | 21 |
2015 | NY Jets | 10-6 | 387 | 11 |
2016 | NY Jets | 5-11 | 275 | 30 |
—Ian Allan