There were four quarterbacks drafted in the first round in April. We can pretty much say for certain that Joe Burrow will start right away, and that Jordan Love will not. But what about the others, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert? Recent history suggests they'll play plenty.
Tua himself was reported yesterday saying he's healthy (after a college hip injury), and is ready to go. The Dolphins have Ryan Fitzpatrick, but they won't hesitate to bring Tua along as his health and readiness allows. The Chargers have preached commitment to Tyrod Taylor, but they did that even before drafting Herbert. The simple reality is that first-round quarterbacks tend to play as rookies. A lot.
Since 2000, there have been 55 other quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Two-thirds of them (38) have started at least 7 games; Deshaun Watson would have made it 39 but for the season-ending knee injury that limited him to 6. Only about a quarter of them (15) started 3 or fewer games. Five of those rookies (with Kyler Murray doing it in 2019) ranked in the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks as rookies.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2001-PRESENT | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Team | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
2019 | Kyler Murray | Ariz. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 6 |
2016 | Carson Wentz | Phil. | 16 | 3782 | 16 | 150 | 2 | 285.8 | 22 |
2015 | Jameis Winston | T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 213 | 6 | 349.4 | 13 |
2012 | Andrew Luck | Ind. | 16 | 4374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | 366.2 | 9 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill | Mia. | 16 | 3294 | 12 | 211 | 2 | 249.8 | 24 |
2011 | Cam Newton | Car. | 16 | 4051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 448.9 | 3 |
2010 | Sam Bradford | St.L. | 16 | 3512 | 18 | 63 | 1 | 259.9 | 19 |
2008 | Joe Flacco | Balt. | 16 | 2971 | 14 | 180 | 2 | 241.9 | 19 |
2008 | Matt Ryan | Atl. | 16 | 3440 | 16 | 104 | 1 | 254.4 | 16 |
2002 | David Carr | Hou. | 16 | 2592 | 9 | 282 | 3 | 215.8 | 24 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden | Cle. | 15 | 3385 | 14 | 111 | 0 | 235.5 | 25 |
2012 | Robert Griffin | Was. | 15 | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 363.5 | 10 |
2009 | Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 15 | 2444 | 12 | 106 | 3 | 202.8 | 22 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert | Jac. | 14 | 2214 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 168.5 | 27 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield | Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 311.4 | 17 |
2018 | Josh Rosen | Ariz. | 13 | 2278 | 11 | 138 | 0 | 173.7 | 32 |
2018 | Sam Darnold | NYJ | 13 | 2865 | 17 | 138 | 1 | 231.1 | 24 |
2014 | Blake Bortles | Jac. | 13 | 2908 | 11 | 419 | 0 | 233.3 | 21 |
2006 | Vince Young | Ten. | 13 | 2199 | 12 | 552 | 7 | 257.2 | 12 |
2004 | Ben Roethlisberger | Pitt. | 13 | 2621 | 17 | 144 | 1 | 219.5 | 21 |
2003 | Byron Leftwich | Jac. | 13 | 2819 | 14 | 108 | 2 | 219.8 | 18 |
2019 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 12 | 3027 | 24 | 279 | 2 | 291.3 | 20 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky | Chi. | 12 | 2193 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 176.5 | 29 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota | Ten. | 12 | 2818 | 19 | 252 | 2 | 271.2 | 22 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | Min. | 12 | 2919 | 14 | 209 | 1 | 232.9 | 22 |
2002 | Joey Harrington | Det. | 12 | 2294 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 163.1 | 28 |
2018 | Josh Allen | Buff. | 11 | 2074 | 10 | 631 | 8 | 256.8 | 22 |
2006 | Matt Leinart | Ariz. | 11 | 2547 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 188.3 | 24 |
2013 | EJ Manuel | Buff. | 10 | 1972 | 11 | 186 | 2 | 177.2 | 28 |
2011 | Christian Ponder | Min. | 10 | 1853 | 13 | 219 | 0 | 166.6 | 28 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford | Det. | 10 | 2267 | 13 | 108 | 2 | 190.2 | 25 |
2009 | Josh Freeman | T.B. | 9 | 1855 | 10 | 161 | 0 | 153.0 | 27 |
2003 | Kyle Boller | Balt. | 9 | 1260 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 105.2 | 32 |
2019 | Dwayne Haskins | Was. | 7 | 1365 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 108.4 | 33 |
2018 | Lamar Jackson | Balt. | 7 | 1201 | 6 | 695 | 5 | 183.6 | 30 |
2016 | Jared Goff | LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 82.1 | 37 |
2005 | Alex Smith | S.F. | 7 | 875 | 1 | 103 | 0 | 58.1 | 43 |
2004 | Eli Manning | NYG | 7 | 1043 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 79.7 | 36 |
2017 | Deshaun Watson | Hou. | 6 | 1699 | 19 | 269 | 2 | 203.9 | 27 |
2006 | Jay Cutler | Den. | 5 | 1001 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 87.9 | 40 |
2002 | Patrick Ramsey | Was. | 5 | 1539 | 9 | -1 | 1 | 120.9 | 31 |
2010 | Tim Tebow | Den. | 3 | 654 | 5 | 227 | 6 | 111.4 | 34 |
2003 | Rex Grossman | Chi. | 3 | 437 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 29.8 | 50 |
2016 | Paxton Lynch | Den. | 2 | 497 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 35.4 | 43 |
2014 | Johnny Manziel | Cle. | 2 | 175 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 17.7 | 53 |
2001 | Michael Vick | Atl. | 2 | 785 | 2 | 289 | 1 | 82.2 | 34 |
2017 | Patrick Mahomes | K.C. | 1 | 284 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 15.2 | 53 |
2007 | JaMarcus Russell | Oak. | 1 | 373 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 29.1 | 57 |
2011 | Jake Locker | Ten. | 0 | 542 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 54.7 | 44 |
2007 | Brady Quinn | Cle. | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 74 |
2005 | Aaron Rodgers | G.B. | 0 | 65 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 4.0 | 72 |
2005 | Jason Campbell | Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
2004 | J.P. Losman | Buff. | 0 | 32 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3.1 | 70 |
2004 | Philip Rivers | S.D. | 0 | 33 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 5.2 | 66 |
2003 | Carson Palmer | Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
As people (including us) are saying tirelessly, it's a different year. Maybe the rookie participation will be down in the COVID-19 world, especially at positions with big learning curves like quarterback.
But I think if you happen to select a quarterback like Fitzpatrick or Taylor, you need to be prepared for them to be holding a clipboard midway through the season. It's how things have played out in recent years, and how they probably will in 2020, too.
--Andy Richardson