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Factoid

First-round quarterbacks

Odds of Tua, Herbert playing early

There were four quarterbacks drafted in the first round in April. We can pretty much say for certain that Joe Burrow will start right away, and that Jordan Love will not. But what about the others, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert? Recent history suggests they'll play plenty.

Tua himself was reported yesterday saying he's healthy (after a college hip injury), and is ready to go. The Dolphins have Ryan Fitzpatrick, but they won't hesitate to bring Tua along as his health and readiness allows. The Chargers have preached commitment to Tyrod Taylor, but they did that even before drafting Herbert. The simple reality is that first-round quarterbacks tend to play as rookies. A lot.

Since 2000, there have been 55 other quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Two-thirds of them (38) have started at least 7 games; Deshaun Watson would have made it 39 but for the season-ending knee injury that limited him to 6. Only about a quarter of them (15) started 3 or fewer games. Five of those rookies (with Kyler Murray doing it in 2019) ranked in the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks as rookies.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2001-PRESENT
YearPlayerTeamGSPassTDRunTDPPRRk
2019Kyler MurrayAriz.163722205444350.56
2016Carson WentzPhil.163782161502285.822
2015Jameis WinstonT.B.164042222136349.413
2012Andrew LuckInd.164374232555366.29
2012Ryan TannehillMia.163294122112249.824
2011Cam NewtonCar.1640512170614448.93
2010Sam BradfordSt.L.16351218631259.919
2008Joe FlaccoBalt.162971141802241.919
2008Matt RyanAtl.163440161041254.416
2002David CarrHou.16259292823215.824
2012Brandon WeedenCle.153385141110235.525
2012Robert GriffinWas.153200208157363.510
2009Mark SanchezNYJ152444121063202.822
2011Blaine GabbertJac.14221412980168.527
2018Baker MayfieldCle.133725271310311.417
2018Josh RosenAriz.132278111380173.732
2018Sam DarnoldNYJ132865171381231.124
2014Blake BortlesJac.132908114190233.321
2006Vince YoungTen.132199125527257.212
2004Ben RoethlisbergerPitt.132621171441219.521
2003Byron LeftwichJac.132819141082219.818
2019Daniel JonesNYG123027242792291.320
2017Mitchell TrubiskyChi.12219372482176.529
2015Marcus MariotaTen.122818192522271.222
2014Teddy BridgewaterMin.122919142091232.922
2002Joey HarringtonDet.1222941240163.128
2018Josh AllenBuff.112074106318256.822
2006Matt LeinartAriz.11254711492188.324
2013EJ ManuelBuff.101972111862177.228
2011Christian PonderMin.101853132190166.628
2009Matthew StaffordDet.102267131082190.225
2009Josh FreemanT.B.91855101610153.027
2003Kyle BollerBalt.912607620105.232
2019Dwayne HaskinsWas.7136571010108.433
2018Lamar JacksonBalt.7120166955183.630
2016Jared GoffLAR71089516182.137
2005Alex SmithS.F.78751103058.143
2004Eli ManningNYG71043635079.736
2017Deshaun WatsonHou.61699192692203.927
2006Jay CutlerDen.51001918087.940
2002Patrick RamseyWas.515399-11120.931
2010Tim TebowDen.365452276111.434
2003Rex GrossmanChi.34372-1029.850
2016Paxton LynchDen.2497225035.443
2014Johnny ManzielCle.2175029117.753
2001Michael VickAtl.27852289182.234
2017Patrick MahomesK.C.1284010015.253
2007JaMarcus RussellOak.137324029.157
2011Jake LockerTen.0542456154.744
2007Brady QuinnCle.0450002.374
2005Aaron RodgersG.B.0650704.072
2005Jason CampbellWas.000000--
2004J.P. LosmanBuff.03201503.170
2004Philip RiversS.D.0331-505.266
2003Carson PalmerCin.000000--

As people (including us) are saying tirelessly, it's a different year. Maybe the rookie participation will be down in the COVID-19 world, especially at positions with big learning curves like quarterback.

But I think if you happen to select a quarterback like Fitzpatrick or Taylor, you need to be prepared for them to be holding a clipboard midway through the season. It's how things have played out in recent years, and how they probably will in 2020, too.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index