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Team projections

Kansas City projects to have highest-scoring offense

Every Monday morning, the revised Cheat Sheet is released, with updated projections for all individual players. But it can also make sense to take a step back and look at the big picture – looking not at players but entire offenses.

As it stands now, we’re expecting Kansas City, Baltimore and New Orleans to have the best offenses. Those are the only three we’re projecting to average at least 3 TDs per week.

Miami, Washington and Jacksonville, meanwhile, have the three offenses we don’t think will average even 2 touchdowns per week. In general, you should have modest expectations for players from those teams.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
TeamPassRunTotal
Kansas City39.716.356.0
Baltimore32.617.650.2
New Orleans34.113.948.0
Seattle31.514.145.6
Indianapolis28.017.445.4
Dallas28.517.045.4
Tampa Bay30.214.244.5
San Francisco28.016.344.3
New England24.319.744.0
Philadelphia28.614.943.5
Green Bay27.016.343.4
Tennessee27.016.243.2
Arizona24.617.442.1
Minnesota25.016.841.8
Cleveland23.817.040.8
Pittsburgh28.212.240.3
Atlanta29.910.440.3
LA Rams23.416.640.0
Houston25.613.939.5
Detroit28.610.238.9
NY Giants23.514.437.9
Buffalo24.213.037.1
Las Vegas23.813.036.8
Denver22.912.034.9
Cincinnati22.211.433.6
Chicago22.111.433.4
Carolina19.813.433.3
LA Chargers20.312.633.0
NY Jets24.57.832.3
Jacksonville23.87.231.0
Washington18.911.530.4
Miami21.68.630.2

If you want to look solely at passing production, we’ve got Kansas City, Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay projecting to be the best. (Could be a very tough year for Carolina’s pass defense – it will play seven games against those four teams.)

We’re expecting Carolina, Washington and the Chargers to have the league’s worst passing offenses.

On the rankings here, the teams are ordered by fantasy production, using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 passing yards. If you instead use 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards, the ordering changes only slightly, with a team here and there moving up or down a spot.

TEAM PASSING FORECAST (per game)
TeamYardsTDPoints
Kansas City3052.4845.4
Atlanta3001.8741.2
New Orleans2802.1340.8
Tampa Bay2781.8939.1
Detroit2801.7938.7
Seattle2601.9737.8
Pittsburgh2721.7637.8
Dallas2701.7837.7
Philadelphia2641.7937.1
San Francisco2621.7536.7
Indianapolis2621.7536.7
LA Rams2771.4636.5
Green Bay2551.6935.6
Las Vegas2601.4934.9
Baltimore2272.0434.9
Arizona2551.5434.7
Tennessee2401.6934.1
Houston2431.6033.9
Minnesota2451.5633.9
Cincinnati2501.3933.3
Jacksonville2421.4933.1
NY Jets2381.5333.0
Cleveland2381.4932.7
NY Giants2381.4732.6
New England2351.5232.6
Denver2351.4332.1
Buffalo2301.5132.1
Miami2351.3531.6
Chicago2301.3831.3
LA Chargers2201.2729.6
Washington2251.1829.6
Carolina2171.2429.1

If we instead look solely at rushing production, the Ravens, Patriots and Colts come out on top. The Browns are up there as well, with the nice combination of good personnel and a new coach (Kevin Stefanski) who put together a productive running attack in Minnesota.

The Dolphins, Jets and Jaguars, if our forecasts are correct, will have the least-productive rushing offenses.

As with the passing numbers, scoring system here is 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards. (And these, to confirm, are rushing numbers, not running back numbers – they do not include receiving production by running backs.)

TEAM RUSHING FORECAST (per game)
TeamYardsTDPoints
Baltimore1631.1022.9
New England1301.2320.4
Indianapolis1301.0919.5
Cleveland1281.0619.2
Minnesota1251.0518.8
Dallas1241.0618.8
Tennessee1261.0118.7
Arizona1171.0918.2
San Francisco1211.0218.2
Seattle128.8818.1
Philadelphia120.9317.6
Buffalo126.8117.5
Kansas City1121.0217.3
Green Bay1121.0217.3
Houston120.8717.2
LA Rams1091.0417.1
NY Giants116.9017.0
LA Chargers122.7916.9
New Orleans115.8716.7
Las Vegas115.8116.4
Carolina106.8415.6
Denver111.7515.6
Cincinnati110.7115.3
Pittsburgh103.7614.9
Detroit108.6414.6
Washington100.7214.3
Tampa Bay88.8914.1
Chicago98.7114.1
Atlanta86.6512.5
Jacksonville97.4512.4
NY Jets93.4912.2
Miami89.5412.1

—Ian Allan

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