It's fantasy draft week. I think; I'm basing this on when most of my drafts, my friends' drafts, the ones I'm hearing about are taking place. In a regular season, the only exhibition game left would be the one no starters dress for. It's the week you lay the groundwork for the season. Don't screw it up.
Great advice, you say. Could you be more specific? I can, and this week has a lot of good examples.
Joe Mixon was seemingly holding out a few days ago. Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook -- those guys, to varying degrees, are in discussions/negotiations/contract standoffs right now. In Monday night drafts, there were people passing on Mixon in the first round. In Tuesday night drafts, there were people passing on Kamara. Mixon was under contract and being drafted in his usual spot last night, and Kamara will (probably) be under contract and being drafted in his usual spot tonight. Cook, we'll see. There's still time.
Those who passed on these players when they were unsigned are kicking themselves; those who drafted them at a discount are celebrating. Bottom line is most of these things get worked out before the games start.
Maybe something happens in the next few hours to make this statement look bad, but the Saints are trying to win a Super Bowl. They are not, on the eve of the season, going to trade away their franchise running back to go with a Latavius Murray-Ty Montgomery backfield, any more than the Bengals were going to with Giovani Bernard and Trayveon Williams.
The players can't actually hold out these days, because if they do they'll wind up losing a year of service and destroying their futures. It's different than when LeVeon did it. Different CBA, different circumstances. Everyone also saw Melvin Gordon hold out a year ago. Didn't work out well for him. Wouldn't have worked out well for Mixon, wouldn't work out for Kamara or Cook. They're playing in Week 1.
OK: there's a chance. Kamara hasn't actually worked out a deal as I write this. Cook could still get some bad advice from his agent and stay home. Gordon is a reminder that sometimes players make bad choices and those who draft them get burned.
But if you're sitting in the middle of the first round and passing on these guys, the odds are a lot greater that you'll hurt your team by taking some lesser option and hand one of your opponents a better one. To me, that's a big step toward beating yourself.
There are ways you can make a risky selection and also hedge. I drafted Kenyan Drake recently. I then selected Chase Edmonds in the 9th. It's a little early, perhaps, for a guy who probably won't be usable on a weekly basis. But I think peace of mind is worth a ninth-round pick. Interestingly, the guy who drafted Dalvin Cook selected Alexander Mattison in the ninth round. Peace of mind. Had I selected Kamara last night, I would have been reaching for Latavius Murray and just maybe using a later pick on Ty Montgomery. Maybe; we'll never know. If Kamara signs today, no worries.
The shocking things are shocking because they're rare. Most likely, Kamara, Cook and anybody else seeking a new contract will be like Mixon, either getting it in the next couple of days, or showing up anyway and playing. That's how I'll be drafting, anyway. I'd rather draft on talent and be disappointed by injury or the unlikely than pass on it for a lesser player and give the superior one to my opponent.
There's another significant fantasy drama going on this week with Leonard Fournette. Jaguars cut him, and he's sitting out there waiting to sign. Right now everyone who's already drafted is paranoid that Fournette is going to sign with Washington/Tampa Bay/New England/somewhere they've drafted those teams' projected starters. Those drafting tonight might shy away from Adrian Peterson, Ronald Jones or -- yes -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, based on a report that Kansas City "might" have interest in Fournette.
Fournette is going to sign somewhere. But unless it's a place where the starter looks bad and should be avoided anyway (sorry, Jordan Howard) or is injured (David Montgomery), he's going to open as their No. 2, and is as likely to move into the starting lineup when the starter flops or gets hurt as the previous No. 2 was on those teams. Kansas City isn't taking CEH off the field for an ordinary talent with reportedly lousy work habits like Fournette. Washington has Peterson, Love, Gibson; New England has Michel, Harris, White, guys who have been working in the offense all summer -- they're suddenly going to mothball them for a veteran running back the Jaguars dumped? Why?
Make the decisions you believe are the right ones. Everyone needs to do that for themselves on draft day. For me, that means not overreacting. Not assuming a contract dispute means a holdout. Not assuming a veteran signing means a new starter. Not beating myself.
Good luck in your drafts.