My sense is that Christian McCaffrey is the clear-cut, run-to-the-podium-with-the-card No. 1 overall pick this year. But I don’t think the decision is that easy. Bad teams don’t tend to have great running backs, and Carolina definitely looks like a solid contender to fall into that bad team category.
This isn’t a new opinion, of course. I’ve been batting around variations of this concept for the entire offseason. But I was playing around with some numbers and have a new way to express it.
Every year there are about a half-dozen offenses that score fewer than 30 touchdowns. It’s happened 71 times in the last 10 years. If we then look at those 71 teams, it gets really hard to find elite running backs.
In the last eight years, no running back from an offense scoring fewer than 30 touchdowns has finished with top-6 fantasy numbers (using PPR scoring). That last happened with Peyton Hillis and Maurice Jones-Drew back in 2010-11. Of those 71 teams, only six had a running back who scored 10-plus touchdowns.
| BEST RUNNING BACKS FROM BAD OFFENSES (last 10 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2010 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | 1,177 | 477 | 1,654 | 13 | 305.1 | 2 |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,606 | 374 | 1,980 | 11 | 307.0 | 4 |
| 2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,145 | 333 | 1,478 | 6 | 225.8 | 10 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,509 | 236 | 1,745 | 6 | 245.5 | 9 |
| 2014 | Matt Asiata, Min. | 570 | 312 | 882 | 10 | 196.2 | 14 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
| 2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 1,138 | 448 | 1,586 | 8 | 265.6 | 7 |
| 2018 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 940 | 446 | 1,386 | 10 | 250.6 | 9 |
| 2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1,152 | 522 | 1,674 | 3 | 261.4 | 7 |
Carolina’s lead receiver, DJ Moore, is another guy who fits into this profile. If the entire offense dips down into that bottom run, it will be tough for him to play up to expectations.
If we again look at those 71 lesser offense from the last 10 years, only one had a player who caught 10-plus touchdown passes. That was Mike Evans with the 2014 Bucs. Four others at least finished with top-10 PPR numbers. (Tavon Austin is also listed here, but he’s a different kind of player – a combination runner-receiver-returner that year.)
| BEST WIDE RECEIVERS FROM BAD OFFENSES (last 10 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec Yd | Tot Yd | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2013 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 1,407 | 1,407 | 5 | 279.7 | 10 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 1,051 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2015 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 473 | 907 | 10 | 202.7 | 27 |
| 2017 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 987 | 980 | 9 | 264.0 | 4 |
| 2017 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 1,156 | 1,156 | 6 | 263.7 | 5 |
| 2019 | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 1,147 | 1,149 | 7 | 254.9 | 8 |
Of course, we don’t know Carolina is going to be a dumpster fire. That was a lesser team last year but still managed to score 37 touchdowns. If it’s scoring at that level again, all of these tables can be tossed. But I have concerns about the general quality of that team, so I don’t think I’ll be selecting McCaffrey or Moore on any of my teams this year. I would rather have others take on that downside risk.
—Ian Allan