Do rookie players get better as their first season progresses? Or are they more likely to hit the proverbial “rookie wall”? A reader sent over a nice statistical study on this topic.
Victor Kitzes (from nearby Black Diamond, Wash.) is a website regular, and he noticed that it’s frequently speculated that various rookies should begin in reserve or time-share roles, with their production likely increasing later in the year. Think Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift.
But is that actually true? That is, can we look back and see a bunch of players who followed that course? Kitzes decided to set aside a few hours and find out.
He looked at the first-year numbers for all rookies who in the last 10 years have finished with either 700-plus rushing yards or 700-plus receiving yards. (Actually, he looked at everyone with at least 500, but I think it reads better when it’s boiled down to only the more-meaningful players.) To then gauge whether players were improving or getting more involved, he looked at their average yards per game in the first half of the season versus the second half.
Guys didn’t tend to improve as much as you would think.
In the last 10 years, 32 rookie receivers (including one tight end) have gone over 700 yards. Only 19 of these players were more productive in the second half of the season. (And 13 of them got worse.)
Of the 15 who went for 900 yards, over half of them got worse. Two thirds of the top 12, in fact, averaged more yards in the first half of their rookie seasons. Apparently, defenses either started making them more of a priority or got a better feel for how to defend them.
On Kitzes’ work, we’re seeing just yards. He didn’t include catches and touchdowns. But it still paints a picture, giving us an idea of what’s going on. In the first and second half numbers, he’s looking at per-game averages rather than totals (reducing the effect of players missing games with injuries).
In the chart below, the players who got worse are tagged with black dots.
| BEST ROOKIE PASS CATCHERS (last 10 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Name | Yards | 1st half | 2nd half | Diff |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 1,305 | 65.5 | 130.4 | 64.9 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, NO | 1,137 | 71.6 | 80.6 | 8.9 |
| 2015 | • Amari Cooper, OAK | 1,070 | 81.6 | 52.1 | -29.5 |
| 2011 | • A.J. Green, CIN | 1,057 | 74.9 | 65.4 | -9.4 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, TEN | 1,051 | 43.5 | 87.9 | 44.4 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, TB | 1,051 | 65.7 | 73.9 | 8.2 |
| 2013 | • Keenan Allen, SD | 1,046 | 75.3 | 64.9 | -10.4 |
| 2014 | • Kelvin Benjamin, CAR | 1,007 | 71.4 | 54.5 | -16.9 |
| 2015 | • Willie Snead, NO | 984 | 66.4 | 64.7 | -1.7 |
| 2014 | • Sammy Watkins, BUF | 982 | 73.8 | 49.0 | -24.8 |
| 2010 | • Mike Williams, TB | 964 | 69.9 | 50.6 | -19.3 |
| 2011 | • Julio Jones, ATL | 949 | 79.8 | 67.1 | -12.7 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, WAS | 919 | 65.4 | 65.9 | .4 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT | 917 | 53.0 | 82.2 | 29.2 |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, SEA | 900 | 50.3 | 62.3 | 12.0 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, JAX | 890 | 31.3 | 80.0 | 48.8 |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, PHI | 872 | 39.1 | 69.9 | 30.8 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton, IND | 861 | 50.7 | 63.3 | 12.5 |
| 2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 848 | 46.3 | 68.3 | 22.0 |
| 2011 | Torrey Smith, BAL | 841 | 49.6 | 55.5 | 5.9 |
| 2018 | • Calvin Ridley, ATL | 821 | 57.9 | 44.8 | -13.1 |
| 2012 | Josh Gordon, CLE | 805 | 47.4 | 53.3 | 5.9 |
| 2019 | Deebo Samuel, SF | 802 | 32.4 | 71.9 | 39.4 |
| 2013 | • DeAndre Hopkins, HOU | 802 | 67.4 | 32.9 | -34.5 |
| 2018 | DJ Moore, CAR | 788 | 37.1 | 61.4 | 24.3 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, MIA | 758 | 37.6 | 57.1 | 19.5 |
| 2017 | Keelan Cole, JAX | 748 | 19.8 | 73.8 | 54.0 |
| 2013 | • Terrance Williams, DAL | 736 | 55.5 | 36.5 | -19.0 |
| 2017 | • Evan Engram (TE), NYG | 722 | 51.5 | 44.3 | -7.2 |
| 2015 | • Stefon Diggs, MIN | 720 | 92.2 | 32.4 | -59.8 |
| 2011 | Greg Little, CLE | 709 | 36.9 | 51.8 | 14.9 |
| 2018 | Courtland Sutton, DEN | 704 | 40.5 | 47.5 | 7.0 |
With running backs, we see more second-half improvement overall. There have been 31 rookies who’ve run for over 700 yards in the last 10 years, and almost three quarters of those guys (23 of 31) averaged more yards per game in the second half of the season. Only eight got worse.
But as with the wide receivers (and this is weird, I thought) for the best running backs, they were more likely to average less productive later in the first year. There have been 13 rookies who’ve run for over 1,000 yards in the last 10 years, and over half of them got worse in the second half of the season, including 7 of the top 11.
It appears there might be something to the concept of a “rookie wall”. For a lot of them, it seems they’re either wearing down, or defenses are doing a better job of defending them.
This is nice work by Victor Kitzes.
| BEST ROOKIE RUNNERS (last 10 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Name | Yards | 1st half | 2nd half | Diff |
| 2016 | • Ezekiel Elliot, DAL | 1,631 | 111.4 | 105.7 | -5.7 |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, WAS | 1,613 | 89.6 | 112.0 | 22.4 |
| 2012 | • Doug Martin, TB | 1,454 | 99.3 | 82.5 | -16.8 |
| 2017 | • Kareem Hunt, KC | 1,327 | 95.4 | 70.5 | -24.9 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, CHI | 1,313 | 72.1 | 101.0 | 28.9 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,307 | 64.9 | 98.5 | 33.6 |
| 2013 | • Eddie Lacy, GB | 1,178 | 85.1 | 72.8 | -12.4 |
| 2019 | • Josh Jacobs, OAK | 1,150 | 92.5 | 82.0 | -10.5 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, CIN | 1,124 | 43.6 | 96.9 | 53.3 |
| 2015 | • Todd Gurley, LA | 1,106 | 110.7 | 63.1 | -47.5 |
| 2017 | • Leonard Fournette, JAX | 1,040 | 99.3 | 63.4 | -35.9 |
| 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, DEN | 1,037 | 66.4 | 72.3 | 5.9 |
| 2010 | LeGarrette Blount, TB | 1,007 | 53.6 | 92.4 | 38.8 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, CLE | 996 | 39.8 | 84.8 | 45.0 |
| 2013 | Zac Stacy, STL | 973 | 58.0 | 78.1 | 20.1 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, CLE | 950 | 58.8 | 68.6 | 9.8 |
| 2018 | Sony Michel, NE | 921 | 68.7 | 72.7 | 4.0 |
| 2011 | DeMarco Murray, DAL | 897 | 67.4 | 71.6 | 4.2 |
| 2019 | David Montgomery, CHI | 889 | 50.8 | 60.4 | 9.6 |
| 2013 | LeVeon Bell, PITT | 860 | 56.4 | 72.3 | 15.9 |
| 2015 | Thomas Rawls, SEA | 830 | 47.0 | 90.8 | 43.8 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, PHI | 818 | 36.8 | 65.5 | 28.8 |
| 2012 | Vick Ballard, IND | 814 | 33.3 | 68.5 | 35.3 |
| 2012 | • Mikel Leshoure, DET | 798 | 62.5 | 52.9 | -9.6 |
| 2019 | Devin Singletary, BUF | 775 | 53.4 | 72.6 | 19.2 |
| 2014 | Tre Mason, STL | 765 | 55.5 | 67.9 | 12.4 |
| 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 731 | 37.8 | 53.6 | 15.9 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, NO | 728 | 38.9 | 52.1 | 13.3 |
| 2018 | Gus Edwards, BAL | 718 | 18.0 | 94.9 | 76.9 |
| 2010 | Chris Ivory, NO | 716 | 55.3 | 64.0 | 8.7 |
| 2016 | Robert Kelley, WAS | 704 | 27.1 | 64.3 | 37.1 |
—Ian Allan