Let’s take one last look at Strength of Schedule before we kick this season off. This time, let’s look not at what teams did last year, but what people think they will do in 2020. It provides a truer look at things.
That is, we don’t use existing wins and losses. We use the over-under win totals that you see posted at casinos. Follow the money, they say.
First, there should be agreement on those over-unders. I first ran the numbers, only to find 70 percent of the teams finishing with difficult schedules. That’s when I realized that the over-under totals as posted, are optimistic. That is, there are more than 256 combined wins. So I had to shave down some of the numbers (while increasing some others) to bring them in line with reality.
I noticed they Jacksonville at 4.5 wins and Carolina and Washington at 5.5 each. Those are crazy. I moved them down to 4.5, 4 and 3. I generally went through all of the numbers and tweaked them, arriving with these totals.
OVER-UNDER WIN TOTALS | ||
---|---|---|
Team | Official | Ian |
Kansas City | 11.5 | 12 |
Baltimore | 11.5 | 11.5 |
New Orleans | 10.5 | 10.5 |
San Francisco | 10.5 | 10.5 |
Dallas | 9.5 | 10 |
Green Bay | 9 | 9.5 |
Indianapolis | 9 | 9.5 |
Minnesota | 9 | 9.5 |
New England | 9 | 9.5 |
Seattle | 9 | 9.5 |
Tampa Bay | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Buffalo | 9 | 9 |
Philadelphia | 9.5 | 9 |
Pittsburgh | 9.5 | 9 |
Cleveland | 8.5 | 8.5 |
LA Rams | 9 | 8.5 |
Tennessee | 8.5 | 8.5 |
Houston | 7.5 | 8 |
Arizona | 7.5 | 7.5 |
Atlanta | 7.5 | 7.5 |
Detroit | 6.5 | 7.5 |
Chicago | 8.5 | 7 |
Las Vegas | 7.5 | 7 |
Denver | 7.5 | 6.5 |
LA Chargers | 7.5 | 6.5 |
NY Giants | 6.5 | 6.5 |
Cincinnati | 5.5 | 6 |
NY Jets | 7 | 5.5 |
Miami | 6.5 | 5 |
Carolina | 5.5 | 4.5 |
Washington | 5.5 | 4 |
Jacksonville | 4.5 | 3 |
Total | 263 | 256 |
Plugging those numbers into the actual 2020 schedule, we then see who’s going to be playing easy schedule, and who’s going to face the harder road.
The Colts and Kansas City, as luck would have it, project to play the easiest schedules. I also see the Browns and Lions up there. That’s worth keeping in mind when selecting players in drafts.
Washington, Atlanta and the two New York teams project to play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) Wks 1-17 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Indianapolis | 120 | 136 | 0 | .469 |
Kansas City | 120 | 135 | 1 | .471 |
LA Chargers | 121 | 135 | 0 | .473 |
Cleveland | 124 | 132 | 0 | .484 |
Detroit | 124 | 131 | 1 | .486 |
Miami | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
Tennessee | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
Buffalo | 125 | 130 | 1 | .490 |
Tampa Bay | 125 | 130 | 1 | .490 |
Pittsburgh | 126 | 130 | 0 | .492 |
New England | 126 | 129 | 1 | .494 |
Baltimore | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Dallas | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Arizona | 127 | 128 | 1 | .498 |
Cincinnati | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
New Orleans | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
Green Bay | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
Minnesota | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
Seattle | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
Chicago | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
Las Vegas | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
Denver | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
San Francisco | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
LA Rams | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
Carolina | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Houston | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Jacksonville | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Philadelphia | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
NY Jets | 133 | 123 | 0 | .520 |
NY Giants | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
Atlanta | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
Washington | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
Most fantasy leagues, of course, finish before the start of Week 17. So we can reasonable remove those games. Looking at just Weeks 1-16, the Chargers move into the top spot, followed by Kansas City and Detroit.
Hardest schedules: Eagles, Washington, Atlanta.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) Wks 1-16 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
LA Chargers | 109 | 131 | 0 | .454 |
Kansas City | 114 | 126 | 0 | .475 |
Detroit | 115 | 125 | 0 | .479 |
Cleveland | 115 | 125 | 0 | .479 |
Miami | 116 | 124 | 0 | .483 |
Cincinnati | 116 | 123 | 1 | .485 |
Tennessee | 117 | 123 | 0 | .488 |
Indianapolis | 117 | 123 | 0 | .488 |
Pittsburgh | 117 | 122 | 1 | .490 |
Seattle | 118 | 122 | 0 | .492 |
Tampa Bay | 118 | 122 | 0 | .492 |
Arizona | 119 | 121 | 0 | .496 |
Chicago | 119 | 120 | 1 | .498 |
San Francisco | 120 | 120 | 0 | .500 |
Dallas | 120 | 119 | 1 | .502 |
Buffalo | 120 | 119 | 1 | .502 |
Minnesota | 121 | 119 | 0 | .504 |
Baltimore | 121 | 119 | 0 | .504 |
New England | 121 | 119 | 0 | .504 |
Carolina | 121 | 118 | 1 | .506 |
Green Bay | 121 | 118 | 1 | .506 |
Jacksonville | 122 | 117 | 1 | .510 |
LA Rams | 122 | 117 | 1 | .510 |
Denver | 122 | 117 | 1 | .510 |
Las Vegas | 122 | 117 | 1 | .510 |
NY Giants | 123 | 116 | 1 | .515 |
NY Jets | 123 | 116 | 1 | .515 |
Houston | 123 | 116 | 1 | .515 |
New Orleans | 123 | 116 | 1 | .515 |
Atlanta | 124 | 115 | 1 | .519 |
Washington | 125 | 115 | 0 | .521 |
Philadelphia | 128 | 112 | 0 | .533 |
While I had this in front of me, I also ran numbers for the first half of the season – just the first eight games for each team.
Chargers, Arizona and Tampa Bay came out on top. The Packers, Jets and Raiders came out the worst.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) G 1-8 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
LA Chargers | 56 | 72 | 0 | .438 |
Arizona | 56 | 71 | 1 | .441 |
Tampa Bay | 58 | 70 | 0 | .453 |
Tennessee | 58 | 70 | 0 | .453 |
Indianapolis | 58 | 69 | 1 | .457 |
Jacksonville | 59 | 69 | 0 | .461 |
LA Rams | 61 | 67 | 0 | .477 |
San Francisco | 61 | 67 | 0 | .477 |
New Orleans | 61 | 67 | 0 | .477 |
Dallas | 61 | 67 | 0 | .477 |
Buffalo | 61 | 66 | 1 | .480 |
Atlanta | 62 | 66 | 0 | .484 |
Carolina | 63 | 65 | 0 | .492 |
Miami | 63 | 65 | 0 | .492 |
Cleveland | 63 | 65 | 0 | .492 |
Kansas City | 63 | 64 | 1 | .496 |
Chicago | 64 | 64 | 0 | .500 |
Detroit | 64 | 64 | 0 | .500 |
Cincinnati | 65 | 63 | 0 | .508 |
New England | 65 | 63 | 0 | .508 |
Houston | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
Philadelphia | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
Baltimore | 66 | 62 | 0 | .516 |
Denver | 66 | 61 | 1 | .520 |
NY Giants | 67 | 60 | 1 | .527 |
Washington | 68 | 60 | 0 | .531 |
Seattle | 68 | 59 | 1 | .535 |
Pittsburgh | 68 | 59 | 1 | .535 |
Minnesota | 69 | 58 | 1 | .543 |
Las Vegas | 70 | 58 | 0 | .547 |
NY Jets | 70 | 57 | 1 | .551 |
Green Bay | 72 | 55 | 1 | .566 |
—Ian Allan