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Strength of schedule

Colts should get boost from scheduling

Let’s take one last look at Strength of Schedule before we kick this season off. This time, let’s look not at what teams did last year, but what people think they will do in 2020. It provides a truer look at things.

That is, we don’t use existing wins and losses. We use the over-under win totals that you see posted at casinos. Follow the money, they say.

First, there should be agreement on those over-unders. I first ran the numbers, only to find 70 percent of the teams finishing with difficult schedules. That’s when I realized that the over-under totals as posted, are optimistic. That is, there are more than 256 combined wins. So I had to shave down some of the numbers (while increasing some others) to bring them in line with reality.

I noticed they Jacksonville at 4.5 wins and Carolina and Washington at 5.5 each. Those are crazy. I moved them down to 4.5, 4 and 3. I generally went through all of the numbers and tweaked them, arriving with these totals.

OVER-UNDER WIN TOTALS
TeamOfficialIan
Kansas City11.512
Baltimore11.511.5
New Orleans10.510.5
San Francisco10.510.5
Dallas9.510
Green Bay99.5
Indianapolis99.5
Minnesota99.5
New England99.5
Seattle99.5
Tampa Bay9.59.5
Buffalo99
Philadelphia9.59
Pittsburgh9.59
Cleveland8.58.5
LA Rams98.5
Tennessee8.58.5
Houston7.58
Arizona7.57.5
Atlanta7.57.5
Detroit6.57.5
Chicago8.57
Las Vegas7.57
Denver7.56.5
LA Chargers7.56.5
NY Giants6.56.5
Cincinnati5.56
NY Jets75.5
Miami6.55
Carolina5.54.5
Washington5.54
Jacksonville4.53
Total263256

Plugging those numbers into the actual 2020 schedule, we then see who’s going to be playing easy schedule, and who’s going to face the harder road.

The Colts and Kansas City, as luck would have it, project to play the easiest schedules. I also see the Browns and Lions up there. That’s worth keeping in mind when selecting players in drafts.

Washington, Atlanta and the two New York teams project to play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) Wks 1-17
TeamWLTPct
Indianapolis1201360.469
Kansas City1201351.471
LA Chargers1211350.473
Cleveland1241320.484
Detroit1241311.486
Miami1251310.488
Tennessee1251310.488
Buffalo1251301.490
Tampa Bay1251301.490
Pittsburgh1261300.492
New England1261291.494
Baltimore1271290.496
Dallas1271290.496
Arizona1271281.498
Cincinnati1281280.500
New Orleans1281280.500
Green Bay1281271.502
Minnesota1281271.502
Seattle1281271.502
Chicago1291270.504
Las Vegas1291270.504
Denver1291261.506
San Francisco1291261.506
LA Rams1301260.508
Carolina1321240.516
Houston1321240.516
Jacksonville1321240.516
Philadelphia1321240.516
NY Jets1331230.520
NY Giants1331221.521
Atlanta1341220.523
Washington1341220.523

Most fantasy leagues, of course, finish before the start of Week 17. So we can reasonable remove those games. Looking at just Weeks 1-16, the Chargers move into the top spot, followed by Kansas City and Detroit.

Hardest schedules: Eagles, Washington, Atlanta.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) Wks 1-16
TeamWLTPct
LA Chargers1091310.454
Kansas City1141260.475
Detroit1151250.479
Cleveland1151250.479
Miami1161240.483
Cincinnati1161231.485
Tennessee1171230.488
Indianapolis1171230.488
Pittsburgh1171221.490
Seattle1181220.492
Tampa Bay1181220.492
Arizona1191210.496
Chicago1191201.498
San Francisco1201200.500
Dallas1201191.502
Buffalo1201191.502
Minnesota1211190.504
Baltimore1211190.504
New England1211190.504
Carolina1211181.506
Green Bay1211181.506
Jacksonville1221171.510
LA Rams1221171.510
Denver1221171.510
Las Vegas1221171.510
NY Giants1231161.515
NY Jets1231161.515
Houston1231161.515
New Orleans1231161.515
Atlanta1241151.519
Washington1251150.521
Philadelphia1281120.533

While I had this in front of me, I also ran numbers for the first half of the season – just the first eight games for each team.

Chargers, Arizona and Tampa Bay came out on top. The Packers, Jets and Raiders came out the worst.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) G 1-8
TeamWLTPct
LA Chargers56720.438
Arizona56711.441
Tampa Bay58700.453
Tennessee58700.453
Indianapolis58691.457
Jacksonville59690.461
LA Rams61670.477
San Francisco61670.477
New Orleans61670.477
Dallas61670.477
Buffalo61661.480
Atlanta62660.484
Carolina63650.492
Miami63650.492
Cleveland63650.492
Kansas City63641.496
Chicago64640.500
Detroit64640.500
Cincinnati65630.508
New England65630.508
Houston66620.516
Philadelphia66620.516
Baltimore66620.516
Denver66611.520
NY Giants67601.527
Washington68600.531
Seattle68591.535
Pittsburgh68591.535
Minnesota69581.543
Las Vegas70580.547
NY Jets70571.551
Green Bay72551.566

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index