With a quarter of the season in the books, let’s take our first look at Strength of Schedule. Which teams have benefitted from playing easy schedules? And which teams should be the most affected by scheduling the rest of the way.
The Steelers and 49ers, thus far, have played remarkably soft schedules. Pittsburgh is 3-0, but those opponents have gone only 1-8 in their other games. Giants, Broncos, Texans – Pittsburgh hasn’t yet had the opportunity to prove that it’s a player in the AFC.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is only 2-2, and that’s troubling when you look at their schedule. Their two wins have come against the 0-4 New York teams. And the 49ers have lost their other games to teams that are otherwise 1-2 (Arizona) and 0-2-1 (Philadelphia).
New England, meanwhile, has played the hardest schedule. It’s two losses were both on the road against undefeated teams (KC, Seattle).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-4) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Pittsburgh | 1 | 8 | 0 | .111 |
San Francisco | 1 | 10 | 1 | .125 |
Chicago | 3 | 9 | 0 | .250 |
Arizona | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 |
Cincinnati | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 |
Green Bay | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 |
Indianapolis | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 |
Seattle | 4 | 8 | 0 | .333 |
Tennessee | 3 | 6 | 0 | .333 |
Philadelphia | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 |
Tampa Bay | 5 | 7 | 0 | .417 |
Cleveland | 5 | 6 | 1 | .458 |
LA Rams | 5 | 6 | 1 | .458 |
Buffalo | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 |
Carolina | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 |
Jacksonville | 5 | 5 | 1 | .500 |
Kansas City | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 |
NY Jets | 6 | 6 | 0 | .500 |
Washington | 6 | 5 | 1 | .542 |
Baltimore | 7 | 5 | 0 | .583 |
Dallas | 7 | 5 | 0 | .583 |
Denver | 6 | 4 | 0 | .600 |
LA Chargers | 7 | 4 | 1 | .625 |
Houston | 7 | 4 | 0 | .636 |
Minnesota | 7 | 4 | 0 | .636 |
NY Giants | 7 | 4 | 0 | .636 |
Atlanta | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 |
Detroit | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 |
Las Vegas | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 |
Miami | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 |
New Orleans | 8 | 4 | 0 | .667 |
New England | 9 | 3 | 0 | .750 |
If we instead look at the remaining games of the season, the 49ers again show up. Previously they played one of the easiest schedule. Looking just as Weeks 5-17, the numbers indicate they’ll play the hardest. That makes it seem less likely that guys like Raheem Mostert (pictured) will tear up the league going forward. (I mean, if you’re into scheduling.)
And while the Texans and Jets are so far winless, they project to also play bottom-3 schedules.
Two high-powered offense project to have the easiest remaining schedules: Dallas and Kansas City.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 5-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Dallas | 16 | 28 | 3 | .372 |
Kansas City | 19 | 29 | 0 | .396 |
LA Chargers | 20 | 28 | 0 | .417 |
Washington | 19 | 26 | 2 | .426 |
New Orleans | 20 | 27 | 1 | .427 |
New England | 21 | 27 | 0 | .438 |
Seattle | 21 | 26 | 1 | .448 |
Carolina | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Las Vegas | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Tampa Bay | 22 | 26 | 0 | .458 |
Cleveland | 20 | 23 | 2 | .467 |
Detroit | 22 | 25 | 0 | .468 |
Miami | 22 | 25 | 1 | .469 |
NY Giants | 22 | 23 | 3 | .490 |
Atlanta | 24 | 24 | 0 | .500 |
Green Bay | 23 | 23 | 1 | .500 |
Philadelphia | 24 | 23 | 0 | .511 |
Denver | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Minnesota | 25 | 23 | 0 | .521 |
Baltimore | 22 | 20 | 3 | .522 |
Arizona | 25 | 22 | 1 | .531 |
Chicago | 25 | 22 | 0 | .532 |
Cincinnati | 24 | 21 | 0 | .533 |
LA Rams | 26 | 22 | 0 | .542 |
Buffalo | 25 | 21 | 0 | .543 |
Jacksonville | 25 | 21 | 0 | .543 |
Indianapolis | 24 | 20 | 1 | .544 |
Pittsburgh | 28 | 20 | 3 | .578 |
Tennessee | 29 | 21 | 1 | .578 |
NY Jets | 29 | 19 | 0 | .604 |
Houston | 28 | 17 | 1 | .620 |
San Francisco | 31 | 17 | 0 | .646 |
Many fantasy leaguers are more interested in points rather than wins. If we plug those numbers in (that is, how many points has each team allowed so far?) The Vikings, Panthers and Giants project to play the best schedules over the remainder of the season.
Three of the team’s best offenses project to play the most difficult remaining schedules: Bills, Rams and Seahawks.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Wks 5-17) | |
---|---|
Team | Pts |
Minnesota | 28.00 |
Carolina | 27.67 |
NY Giants | 27.52 |
Chicago | 27.45 |
Kansas City | 27.35 |
LA Chargers | 27.15 |
Tampa Bay | 27.10 |
Philadelphia | 27.03 |
Indianapolis | 26.87 |
Detroit | 26.53 |
Atlanta | 26.44 |
Washington | 26.17 |
San Francisco | 25.83 |
Pittsburgh | 25.63 |
Denver | 25.44 |
New Orleans | 25.40 |
Arizona | 25.35 |
Jacksonville | 25.25 |
New England | 24.85 |
Baltimore | 24.82 |
Green Bay | 24.66 |
Miami | 24.56 |
Cleveland | 24.55 |
Houston | 24.36 |
NY Jets | 24.33 |
Tennessee | 24.33 |
Dallas | 24.32 |
Las Vegas | 24.27 |
Cincinnati | 24.11 |
Seattle | 24.10 |
LA Rams | 23.92 |
Buffalo | 23.38 |
—Ian Allan