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Updated strength of schedule

Re-visiting schedules after a month of the season

With a quarter of the season in the books, let’s take our first look at Strength of Schedule. Which teams have benefitted from playing easy schedules? And which teams should be the most affected by scheduling the rest of the way.

The Steelers and 49ers, thus far, have played remarkably soft schedules. Pittsburgh is 3-0, but those opponents have gone only 1-8 in their other games. Giants, Broncos, Texans – Pittsburgh hasn’t yet had the opportunity to prove that it’s a player in the AFC.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is only 2-2, and that’s troubling when you look at their schedule. Their two wins have come against the 0-4 New York teams. And the 49ers have lost their other games to teams that are otherwise 1-2 (Arizona) and 0-2-1 (Philadelphia).

New England, meanwhile, has played the hardest schedule. It’s two losses were both on the road against undefeated teams (KC, Seattle).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-4)
TeamWLTPct
Pittsburgh180.111
San Francisco1101.125
Chicago390.250
Arizona480.333
Cincinnati480.333
Green Bay480.333
Indianapolis480.333
Seattle480.333
Tennessee360.333
Philadelphia570.417
Tampa Bay570.417
Cleveland561.458
LA Rams561.458
Buffalo660.500
Carolina660.500
Jacksonville551.500
Kansas City660.500
NY Jets660.500
Washington651.542
Baltimore750.583
Dallas750.583
Denver640.600
LA Chargers741.625
Houston740.636
Minnesota740.636
NY Giants740.636
Atlanta840.667
Detroit840.667
Las Vegas840.667
Miami840.667
New Orleans840.667
New England930.750

If we instead look at the remaining games of the season, the 49ers again show up. Previously they played one of the easiest schedule. Looking just as Weeks 5-17, the numbers indicate they’ll play the hardest. That makes it seem less likely that guys like Raheem Mostert (pictured) will tear up the league going forward. (I mean, if you’re into scheduling.)

And while the Texans and Jets are so far winless, they project to also play bottom-3 schedules.

Two high-powered offense project to have the easiest remaining schedules: Dallas and Kansas City.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 5-17)
TeamWLTPct
Dallas16283.372
Kansas City19290.396
LA Chargers20280.417
Washington19262.426
New Orleans20271.427
New England21270.438
Seattle21261.448
Carolina22260.458
Las Vegas22260.458
Tampa Bay22260.458
Cleveland20232.467
Detroit22250.468
Miami22251.469
NY Giants22233.490
Atlanta24240.500
Green Bay23231.500
Philadelphia24230.511
Denver25230.521
Minnesota25230.521
Baltimore22203.522
Arizona25221.531
Chicago25220.532
Cincinnati24210.533
LA Rams26220.542
Buffalo25210.543
Jacksonville25210.543
Indianapolis24201.544
Pittsburgh28203.578
Tennessee29211.578
NY Jets29190.604
Houston28171.620
San Francisco31170.646

Many fantasy leaguers are more interested in points rather than wins. If we plug those numbers in (that is, how many points has each team allowed so far?) The Vikings, Panthers and Giants project to play the best schedules over the remainder of the season.

Three of the team’s best offenses project to play the most difficult remaining schedules: Bills, Rams and Seahawks.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Wks 5-17)
TeamPts
Minnesota28.00
Carolina27.67
NY Giants27.52
Chicago27.45
Kansas City27.35
LA Chargers27.15
Tampa Bay27.10
Philadelphia27.03
Indianapolis26.87
Detroit26.53
Atlanta26.44
Washington26.17
San Francisco25.83
Pittsburgh25.63
Denver25.44
New Orleans25.40
Arizona25.35
Jacksonville25.25
New England24.85
Baltimore24.82
Green Bay24.66
Miami24.56
Cleveland24.55
Houston24.36
NY Jets24.33
Tennessee24.33
Dallas24.32
Las Vegas24.27
Cincinnati24.11
Seattle24.10
LA Rams23.92
Buffalo23.38

—Ian Allan

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