Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Instant impact?

Can Joe Burrow be productive immediately?

Do you start Joe Burrow in his first game? He was awfully good in college. And looking at recent years, there have been a lot more hits than misses with these kind of quarterbacks.

Cam Newton and Kyler Murray, most notably. They came in and shredded it in their first games (in the same stadium, no less). But there have been plenty of other good debut games.

In the last 10 years, there have been 11 quarterbacks picked either first or second. Seven of those guys threw multiple touchdowns in their first game. Only one didn’t throw a touchdown (Jared Goff).

In the case of Burrow, he’s going to a team that’s got some receivers, and they’ll throw it around some. Andy Dalton averaged 282 passing yards in the first half of last year.

All reports suggest Burrow has been everything the Bengals were hoping for. And he’s also got some running ability. He played five games against top-10 opponents last year, and he averaged 45 rushing yards in those games, with 2 TDs.

Plenty of good quarterback options available, of course, but I’m not opposed to sticking Burrow out there.

HERALDED ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, FIRST GAME
YearPlayer (pick)OppResultComAttYardsTDInt
2010Sam Bradford, St.L. (1)Ariz.L 13-17325525313
2011Cam Newton, Car. (1)at Ariz.L 21-28243742221
2012Robert Griffin III, Was. (2)at N.O.W 40-32192632020
2012Andrew Luck, Ind. (1)at Chi.L 21-41234530913
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten. (2)at T.B.W 42-14131520940
2015Jameis Winston, T.B. (1)Tenn.L 14-42163321022
2016Carson Wentz, Phil. (2)Clev.W 29-10223727820
2016Jared Goff, LAR (1)Mia.L 10-14173113400
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (2)Min.L 17-20122512811
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev. (1)at Oak.L 42-45214129522
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz. (1)Det.T 27-27295430821
2020Joe Burrow, Cin. (1)LAC??????

Here are the first-game stats for other first-round quarterbacks starting their initial game in the last 10 years. The track record is not as good. Only four of these 19 threw multiple touchdowns in their first game.

But skimming over this list, most of these quarterbacks have very little in common with Joe Burrow. Certainly not Tebow, Ponder, Locker, Gabbert, Weeden, Manuel, Manziel, Lynch and Bortles.

OTHER FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, FIRST GAME
YearPlayer (pick)OppResultComAttYardsTDInt
2010Tim Tebow, Den. (25)at Oak.L 23-3981613810
2011Christian Ponder, Min. (12)G.B.L 27-33133221922
2011Jake Locker, Ten. (8)N.E.L 14-34233222911
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac. (10)at Car.L 10-16122113911
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia. (8)at Hou.L 10-30203621903
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev. (22)Phil.L 16-17123511804
2013EJ Manuel, Buff. (16)N.E.L 21-23182715020
2014Blake Bortles, Jac. (3)at S.D.L 14-33293725412
2014Johnny Manziel, Clev. (22)Cin.L 0-3010188002
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min. (32)Atl.W 41-28193031700
2016Paxton Lynch, Den. (26)Atl.L 16-23233522311
2017Patrick Mahomes, K.C. (10)at Den.W 27-24223528401
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou. (12)at Cin.W 13-9152412500
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ (3)at Det.W 48-17162119821
2018Josh Allen, Buff. (7)LACL 20-31183324512
2018Josh Rosen, Ariz. (10)Sea.L 17-20152718010
2018Lamar Jackson, Balt. (32)Cin.W 24-21131915001
2019Daniel Jones, NYG (6)at T.B.W 32-31233633620
2019Dwayne Haskins, Was. (15)at Buff.L 9-24152214400

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index