Scheduletron

November 17, 2020

Updated strength of schedule

Can soft schedule save Carson Wentz?

Carson Wentz has had his troubles this year, but I wonder if he’ll get a boost from the schedule down the stretch it lays out pretty favorably for the Eagles.

Who you’re playing, after all, is something close to half of the equation. Running backs are going to tend to look good when they’re playing against Houston. They’re going to tend to struggle against Tampa Bay.

With Wentz, the schedule indicates he’ll have one of the most favorable schedule for quarterbacks over the next five weeks. His next five are against defenses that are currently allowing an average of 279 passing yards and 1.89 TD passes per game.

All five of the easiest pass schedules, as luck would have it, belong to quarterbacks who’ve tended to pass the ball: Giants, Ravens, Bears and Washington.

That’s using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards. (If you want to use 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards, the ordering will be very similar.)

On this, I’m looking at the next five weeks for most teams. For teams that haven’t had their bye yet, I’m looking at Weeks 11-16 (next five games).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (next 5 G)
Rk	Team	Yards	TDP	Points
1.	NY Giants	282	1.87	39.4
2.	Philadelphia	279	1.89	39.3
3.	Baltimore	264	2.07	38.8
4.	Chicago	268	1.93	38.4
5.	Washington	266	1.96	38.3
6.	New Orleans	271	1.82	38.1
7.	LA Chargers	274	1.77	38.0
8.	Indianapolis	263	1.87	37.5
9.	Jacksonville	262	1.87	37.4
10.	Atlanta	253	1.94	36.9
11.	Tampa Bay	264	1.73	36.8
12.	Cleveland	265	1.72	36.8
13.	NY Jets	273	1.56	36.6
14.	Las Vegas	259	1.73	36.3
15.	Minnesota	254	1.79	36.2
16.	Detroit	258	1.72	36.0
17.	Tennessee	256	1.71	35.9
18.	Pittsburgh	252	1.77	35.8
19.	Kansas City	257	1.70	35.8
20.	Seattle	257	1.63	35.5
21.	LA Rams	252	1.72	35.5
22.	Carolina	251	1.73	35.5
23.	Miami	254	1.69	35.5
24.	Arizona	267	1.46	35.4
25.	Dallas	244	1.81	35.2
26.	New England	251	1.67	35.1
27.	Cincinnati	246	1.70	34.8
28.	Denver	252	1.60	34.7
29.	Buffalo	236	1.70	33.8
30.	San Francisco	239	1.66	33.8
31.	Green Bay	245	1.47	33.3
32.	Houston	235	1.42	32.0

For rushing, the Colts, Bears and Packers appear to have the easiest upcoming schedules. The Falcons, Jaguars and Eagles seem to have the hardest run schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (next 5 G)
Rk	Team	Yards	TDP	Points
1.	Indianapolis	136	1.27	21.2
2.	Chicago	133	1.24	20.8
3.	Green Bay	121	1.22	19.4
4.	Detroit	128	1.11	19.4
5.	Carolina	125	1.13	19.3
6.	LA Chargers	119	1.21	19.2
7.	Pittsburgh	127	1.08	19.2
8.	Miami	130	1.02	19.1
9.	Denver	120	1.14	18.9
10.	San Francisco	127	1.01	18.8
11.	Cleveland	119	1.13	18.7
12.	Seattle	120	1.09	18.6
13.	Baltimore	124	1.02	18.5
14.	New Orleans	120	1.09	18.5
15.	Minnesota	121	1.07	18.5
16.	Tennessee	116	1.13	18.4
17.	Cincinnati	124	1.00	18.4
18.	New England	126	.96	18.3
19.	NY Jets	110	1.18	18.1
20.	Arizona	111	1.16	18.0
21.	Tampa Bay	118	1.00	17.8
22.	Washington	120	.96	17.8
23.	Las Vegas	114	.98	17.2
24.	Houston	114	.96	17.2
25.	NY Giants	112	.93	16.8
26.	Buffalo	118	.83	16.8
27.	Kansas City	105	1.03	16.6
28.	Dallas	118	.76	16.4
29.	LA Rams	111	.86	16.2
30.	Philadelphia	101	.98	16.0
31.	Jacksonville	111	.78	15.8
32.	Atlanta	92	.85	14.3

Strictly for touchdowns (combined rushing/receiving but not returns) the Bears project to have the easiest upcoming schedule. That seems like a wasted opportunity, considering how they’ve struggled. The Colts, Ravens and Chargers are also up there.

The Texans, Bills and Cowboys have the hardest upcoming schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (next 5 G)
Rk	Team	Run	Pass	Total
1.	Chicago	1.24	1.93	3.18
2.	Indianapolis	1.27	1.87	3.13
3.	Baltimore	1.02	2.07	3.09
4.	LA Chargers	1.21	1.77	2.98
5.	Washington	.96	1.96	2.92
6.	New Orleans	1.09	1.82	2.91
7.	Carolina	1.13	1.73	2.87
8.	Philadelphia	.98	1.89	2.87
9.	Minnesota	1.07	1.79	2.86
10.	Cleveland	1.13	1.72	2.86
11.	Pittsburgh	1.08	1.77	2.84
12.	Tennessee	1.13	1.71	2.84
13.	Detroit	1.11	1.72	2.83
14.	NY Giants	.93	1.87	2.80
15.	Atlanta	.85	1.94	2.79
16.	Denver	1.14	1.60	2.73
17.	NY Jets	1.18	1.56	2.73
18.	Tampa Bay	1.00	1.73	2.73
19.	Kansas City	1.03	1.70	2.72
20.	Seattle	1.09	1.63	2.72
21.	Las Vegas	.98	1.73	2.71
22.	Miami	1.02	1.69	2.71
23.	Cincinnati	1.00	1.70	2.70
24.	Green Bay	1.22	1.47	2.69
25.	San Francisco	1.01	1.66	2.67
26.	Jacksonville	.78	1.87	2.64
27.	New England	.96	1.67	2.62
28.	Arizona	1.16	1.46	2.61
29.	LA Rams	.86	1.72	2.58
30.	Dallas	.76	1.81	2.57
31.	Buffalo	.83	1.70	2.52
32.	Houston	.96	1.42	2.38

—Ian Allan

Carson Wentz strength of schedule

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